3-0 day yesterday brought us to 9-4 on the week. Five plays tonight.
PITTSBURGH-Eastern Washington over 154.5
This one isn’t likely to be a close game, but it should be a high scoring one. EW comes in averaging 84 points a game and Pitt is 11th in the country in offensive rating. For as much as EW can score, they rate 321st out of 351 Division-1 teams on defense. I’m expecting the Panthers to score around 90 in this one, which just counts on EW to get to the mid-sixties.
76ERS-Pistons under 193
Both of these teams rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in offensive rating and points per game. Sixers games have hit the under in eight of their last ten. For their part, the Pistons haven’t hit the century mark in a road game since November 8th.
PACERS-Heat under 197.5
It’s tough to stare down the barrel of Indiana’s nine game streak of scoring at least 103 to make this pick, but I expect that trend to come to an end tonight. Miami likes to slow games down (27th in the NBA in pace) and 16 of their 20 games have hit the under. Their games this season are averaging a 189 total and the last ten times they’ve met the Pacers, they’re averaging a 185 total. This one’s got value, opening at 195.5.
PELICANS-Wizards over 212
The Pelicans have the worst defense in the league in terms of points and it doesn’t get any better when they’re at home. Washington’s D isn’t much better (25th in PPG) and New Orleans is second in the league in scoring at home. The under has been pounded down from 216, so you’ll get a lot of value in playing the over at this number.
Timberwolves (pick) over NUGGETS
The Wolves have been a better road team this year (6-3, 9-0 ATS) than they have been at home (3-9, 1-10-1 ATS). The Nuggets have been a worse home team this year (3-7, 2-7-1 ATS) than they have been on the road (5-7, 7-4-1 ATS). They’re both ass backwards teams. The Wolves only road losses came to the Clippers, Magic, and Pacers this year and they’re a better offensive and defensive team than the Nuggets. While Minnesota (9-12) has a similar record to Denver (8-14), their point differential is much better at -0.76 compared to -6.09. If that’s not enough, the Wolves beat the Nuggets by 17 in Denver earlier this year.