UNC (-24.5) over Tulane
The Green Wave have played one of the worst schedules in the entire country and they’ve lost four games already. They haven’t played close to the caliber of a team that the Tar Heels are and I think it’s gonna be a wake up call. Look for UNC to bounce back in a big way after that Texas loss. They haven’t played a team this poor since mid-November.
Northern Illinois (+13.5) over OHIO STATE
Both of these teams play a slow tempo, which in theory should keep the game closer when there’s a talent gap. Northern Illinois hasn’t played much competition, but they’ve had 12 days to get ready for this one. Ohio State has been shaky all year, with home losses to UT-Arlington and Louisiana Tech. They just a nationally televised game against UConn last weekend and have another this week at Kentucky. With such a young team, overlooking an inferior opponent could be a big issue for them in this spot.
Gardner-Webb (+13) over LSU
Gardner-Webb has played a much tougher schedule than LSU and much better competition than this Tiger team. The only justifiable reason I see for this many points is that LSU gets extra points simply because they have Ben Simmons of their team. He’s awesome. His team is not. This is exactly the reason LSU is 0-7 ATS. They played McNeese State, Kennesaw State, and South Alabama early in the year and only beat one of them by at least 13. All are worse than GW.
NEW MEXICO (-8) over New Mexico State
Two teams trending in opposite directions. These two teams play twice every year and NM already won at NMSt. by nine earlier this year. The Aggies have a poor offense, while the Lobos have one of the better defenses in the country.
PACERS (-4) over Mavericks
The Pacers have covered eight of the last ten over the Mavericks. Metrics will tell you that Indiana is one of the five best teams in the NBA and Dallas is average, if not slightly below average.
NETS-Heat under 192
Two of the worst scoring teams in the league and Miami plays a really slow pace. Brooklyn plays an average pace, but they’re just terrible offensively. Miami has hit the under in 18 of their 23 games this year and Brooklyn has hit 15 out of 24.
BULLS-Grizzlies under 194.5
Similar story to the last game.
SPURS (-13) over Wizards
Injuries are adding up for an already suspect Wizards team. Playing in San Antonio against the best defense in the league isn’t going to help
WARRIORS (-13) over Suns – LATE ADD
Debated on picking this one and then the Suns were late to the game because they got stuck in traffic. Routines matter.