Southern Illinois (-1) over SAINT LOUIS
Saint Louis is 1-4 SU in their last five home games and they’ve haven’t covered a spread at home all year. They rate really poorly in three categories: adjusted offensive efficiency, turnover percentage, and offensive rebounding percentage. SIU is middle of the road defensively, but they’re 12th in the nation in turning over their opponent and rate 93rd (out of 351) in allowing offensive rebounds. That’s not a good combination for the Billikens. Salukis have four wins away from their home court this year.
CREIGHTON (-20) over North Texas
North Texas is terrible at a lot of things, especially defense. Creighton can really light it up. They’ve won five games by 20+ and four of them were against better teams than what the Mean Green is bringing to the table.
WIZARDS (-2.5) over Kings
DeMarcus Cousins under 23.5 points and under 11.5 rebounds
Kings are 0-5 on their second game of a back-to-back. They go as Cousins go and he struggles (relatively) on back-to-backs. When he gets at least a day of rest, he averages right around 19.5 and 11.0 for his career. With no rest? 17.9 and 9.5. In addition, his fifth-worst points and rebounds averages come against the Wizards, compared to the rest of the other 28 teams, at 17.4 and 9.8. I like all three of the plays, but would definitely sink more into the Wizards over Cousins’s numbers. Books tend to add more juice on individual numbers.
Magic (+3) over KNICKS
Magic are 3-1 ATS on back-to-backs this year. If metrics do anything for you, the Magic rank seven spots higher than the Knicks. They’re better in every major traditional statistical category, other than free throw percentage. They’re 10-3 ATS on the road this year. I see this one as more of a pick ’em, so I’ll take the team catching points here.