11-5 on the week
PITTSBURGH (-20) over Western Carolina
Of their nine wins, Pitt has won six of them by 20+ points. They’re facing a Western Carolina team that’s 0-7 on the road. They’ve played three top-100 teams in those seven games and lost by 25, 23, and 33. They’re a pretty poor rebounding team because they’re one of the smallest teams in the country and they’re gonna have to deal with a Panther team that is 24th in offensive rebounding percentage.
Illinois (-5) over Missouri
Neither program is where they should be, but Missouri is awful. They can’t beat bad teams soundly at home and they haven’t been competitive with anyone in the Power 5, with the exception of a five point loss to Northwestern. Illinois has at least been competitive against good teams. Injuries in the frontcourt haven’t helped them, but Mizzou isn’t going to hurt them inside. Malcolm Hill will by far be the best player on the floor and I expect him to carry the Illini to the cover.
Milwaukee (+4.5) over MINNESOTA
Minnesota is 2-7 ATS this year and has home losses to South Dakota and South Dakota State. They only rate three spots higher than Milwaukee. The Panthers have fared well on the road this year, already beating Wisconsin and Santa Clara and only losing to Notre Dame by 8.
MAGIC (+1) over Rockets
Houston is starting to get it together, but Orlando is still 20-8 ATS this year and 8-2 ATS in their last ten. They still rate a lot higher than the Rockets do and it seems like kind of a slap in the face that they’d be catching a point at home.
PACERS (-6.5) over Kings
Indiana is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at home. Sacramento can score, but they’re one of the worst teams defensively in the league. They’re just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last six road games. The Pacers’ top five defense will slow down the Kings and allow the cover.
Pistons (+6) over HAWKS
Detroit has been playing pretty well lately, going 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their past six. They’ve been one of the better teams ATS all year at 17-11-1. They’ve only been given this many points three teams all year and one of them was the first game of the year at Atlanta. Dogs by 7 and the won by 12. The Hawks are a good team, but they’re one of the rare teams that has very similar scoring numbers on offense and defense whether they’re playing at home or on the road. They also have similar home and away records and are only 7-9 ATS at home. Home court doesn’t play much of a factor for this team.
Spurs (-11) over TIMBERWOLVES
The Wolves are 2-11-1 ATS at home and are even more rare than the Hawks in that they are pretty much worse at everything on their home floor. Andrew Wiggins is the obviously the go-to guy for Minnesota, but he averages about five points a game less against the Spurs than he does the rest of the league.