VILLANOVA (-25) over Penn
Nova has played four teams ranked in the 200s in KenPom’s rankings. They’ve won those games by 37, 35, 29, and 30. Penn ranks 267 currently. They haven’t played anyone near the level of Villanova, but their road performances feature a 37 point loss to Washington, a 19 point loss to George Mason, and additional losses to Lafayette and Drexel.
EASTERN MICHIGAN (-2.5) over Detroit
EMU is 5-0 at home, although the best team they’ve played is Vermont. Detroit is 0-4 on the road. EMU rates about 27 spots higher than Detroit, so it’s a pretty even matchup and I always like the home team only giving a couple of points in that situation.
CALIFORNIA (-9.5) over Davidson
Davidson has only played two other top-50 teams all year and they lost by 33 to UNC and 35 to Pittsburgh. They’re traveling all the way across the country a couple of days after Christmas to play a Cal team that just took Virginia to overtime on the road.
MAGIC (-4) over Pelicans
We’re just gonna continue to ride the Magic. They’re 21-9 ATS and the Pelicans are 6-11 ATS on the road. Orlando is a much better defensive team and New Orleans scoring drops 5 PPG when they hit the road.
SUNS (+9.5) over Cavaliers
The Cavs spent their holiday weekend losing to the Warriors and getting absolutely blown out by the Trail Blazers. Then, photos popped up on Twitter that LeBron and company were out late last night dancing in the Phoenix nightclubs. I don’t typically wager based on that type of activity, but they don’t seem totally focused on this west coast trip and the Suns will run them up and down.