I’ve been putting it off the past couple of weeks because I’m a lazy jerkoff, but I was up all night and put together my basketball totals so far this year. Most of these are documented on the blog, but some I just tweet out and some I didn’t put up anywhere because I’m an idiot.
Let me clarify this real quick: If I just tweet out a pick, I usually end up deleting it win or lose because I don’t like “Golden St. -14” clogging up my feed. I was 4-3 on those picks I deleted. Of the ones I didn’t document anywhere (they were all on Christmas Day), I went 2-3. So for all of the skeptical truthers out there, that’s a total of 6-6 and just pushes me further back to the mean, which is of no benefit once you see the results so far. I used the bet history on my book’s website to find them all.
CBB YTD: 42-36-4 (53.8%)
NBA YTD: 35-16-1 (68.6%)
Total YTD: 77-52-5 (59.7%)
Above .500 days: 11
.500 days: 8
Below .500 days: 4
Obviously, NBA is going a lot better, but CBB by itself is still profitable.
Quick aside: I’ve seen a lot of people in the gambling Twitter universe that really don’t seem to understand what percentage you need to be profitable. It’s 52.4%. Quick math lesson:
$100 bet at -110 pays out $190.90
100 bets at $100 (total of $10,000) would pay out $19,090.$19,090 x .524 = $10,003.16
Of course all of that is dependent on the line being at -110, which obviously is not 100% of the time. But the point remains.
Back to the totals: obviously the NBA plays are providing big returns. Since December 28th, we’re 10-1. Personally, the NBA is my favorite of any sport to play because I feel like it has the fewest variables. The trends are easier to pick up on and basketball is a much simpler game when you’re evaluating matchups compared to football. I like CBB, but the gaps in talent level throughout the country make things difficult to decipher at times, road/home can be a bigger deal, referees are inconsistent, and they’re still college kids dealing with menial things like schoolwork.
Anyway, enough rambling. I’ll keep the totals at the bottom from now.
SMU-Cincinnati under 138
In terms of tempo, these two teams rate out at 296 and 281, respectively. SMU has had two games that have gone above the average number of possessions in college basketball. Cincinnati has had one game go over that same average in their past eleven games. Both of these teams rate in the top 20% of defensive efficiency. Last year, in their two meetings they combined for totals of 116 and 106. Stangs just had one of their top scorers, Keith Frazier, leave the team.
South Dakota State (-6.5) over IUPUI
SDSU already has four true road wins this year, including a 14 point win over Minnesota and a 9 point win over TCU. They’ve covered the last four meetings with IUPUI and eight of the last ten. IUPUI is below average in almost every statistical category.
GEORGIA STATE-Troy under 139.5
State plays one of the slowest tempos in the country. In their last seven games, the winner has scored in the 60s four times and in the 50s two times. Troy likes to push the tempo, but they have a below average offensive team in terms of efficiency and I always feel like pace is generally dictated by the better team, especially if they’re at home. They just played Arkansas Little Rock, who plays like GSU, and they slowed Troy way down.
ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK (-5.5) over Louisiana Lafayette
ALR has won at San Diego State, Tulsa, and DePaul by 22. They’re 47th in KenPom’s rankings. The Cajuns are 0-6 on the road, losing every game by at least nine and going 1-5 ATS.
Arizona State (+6) over USC
Trojans are coming off a blown 22-point second half lead on the road against a suspect Washington team. That’s a lot for a really young team to bounce back from. ASU just battled Arizona down to the wire before Bobby Hurley lost his mind and got two technicals at the end of the game, essentially costing his team any chance they had. They’re a much more veteran group. USC shoots the three really well. If the Aztecs can limit the outside shot, which they’ve done well this year, they’ll have a chance to win.
BULLS (-6) over Celtics
Bulls have won five straight and covered in four of those games. Meanwhile, the Celts have dropped three of four SU and ATS, including losses to the Nets and Lakers. These are two teams trending in opposite directions. The Bulls are 15-6-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings with Boston.