28-24-2 last week. Totals are at the bottom.
EAST TENNESSEE STATE (-10) over VMI
Two teams that got new head coaches in the offseason and are going in opposite directions. VMI wasn’t good last year, but they started this year at 195 in KenPom’s rankings and have kept falling since then, down to a low of 303 currently. ETSU has climbed from their opening 270 ranking all the way up to 175 recently. KenPom isn’t the end-all, be-all, but it is a VERY useful tool that can kind of sort things out for you that traditional statistics or useless metrics like RPI can’t. If you consistently gamble on college basketball, the 20 bucks for an annual subscription is well worth it. Anyway, VMI has way more areas where they’re well below average than they do areas where they’re even slightly above average. They’ve beaten two D-1 teams all year. They’re 1-7 on the road this year and in their two road games in conference so far, they’ve lost by 28 and 21 points, respectively. ETSU is slightly better than both of those teams they lost to. The Bucs seem to have turned a bit of a corner since their close loss to Tennessee on Dec. 22. They were tied with 1:20 to go in that game and have won four straight since then. They recently lost their fourth leading scorer for the season, but I still think they’ll have enough to cover against a 1-6 ATS, VMI team.
Spurs (-15) over NETS
You’re never going to be super comfortable laying 15 on the road, but the Spurs are a different animal. Obviously, they’re a lot better than Brooklyn, but they’re also 26-12 ATS. They’ve laid double digits on the road three times this year and they’ve won those games by 25, 25, and 51, respectively. The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last four and they already lost by 27 to San Antonio earlier this year. Not to mention, Brooklyn just fired their head coach and general manager over the weekend. The organization is a mess and I’m betting that’s not going to reflect positively in the team’s play.
CBB YTD: 54-52-5 (50.9%)
NBA YTD: 40-19-1 (68.0%)
Total YTD: 94-71-6 (57.0%)
Above .500 days: 11
.500 days: 11
Below .500 days: 5