3-4 yesterday. 14-11 on the week. Yesterday kind of sucked. We got off to a 3-1 start before dropping the last three. I always like to evaluate my losses after they happened, so here we go.
UNC-WILMINGTON (-15) over Delaware
UNCW was up ten at half and only ended up winning by nine. Delaware had only beaten their opponent in the second half once in the past nine games. UNCW has no track record of stumbling down the stretch. Projections had the Seahawks winning by 17. They had beaten Delaware at their place by 18 a couple weeks ago. I can’t really feel like I did anything wrong here, it’s just a loss. The first half line hit, the game didn’t.
PURDUE (-6.5) over Ohio State 1st Half
OSU was actually up three at half. They’re a below average three-point shooting team that went 6-9 in the first half on the road. Purdue is an above average team in that category and went 0-8 in the first half at home. They had a bunch of good looks that just didn’t go down. That was the difference. They were better in almost every other category. Bucks had been down 18 and 30 their last two games on the road. Boilers won the second half by 12. Just a loss.
Cal Poly (-4) over CS NORTHRIDGE
Poly was up 58-47 with 9:21 left and at that point had a 95.2% chance of winning. They lost straight up, giving up 29 points the rest of the game. A similar thing happened to the Mustangs at the Matadome last year, so maybe I should’ve put more stock in that.
Hawks (+1.5) over KINGS
The game was tied until Rondo hit a layup with 12 seconds left. The next possession was a turnover by Paul Millsap and just like that it was a loss. To be honest, we were lucky to even have a shot at it when the Hawks gave up an 18-0 run over a five minute stretch in the fourth quarter and they were down 17. The line ended up being Hawks -1, so it’s another one that I can’t really beat myself up about.
Anyway, those are just the breaks some days. It all evens out over time. On to today.
NORTHERN KENTUCKY (-12.5) over Illinois-Chicago
UIC ranks 346th out of 351 teams on KenPom.com. They’re absolute dogshit. They have two wins on the year and those two teams are a combined 7-18 in the CCAC. The CCAC is a D-2 conference. They’re averaging a 23 point loss in their eight true road games. Their closest loss has been by 17.
Maybe you’ll remember Northern Kentucky from Tuesday when they were 14 point dogs and won by 17 at Oakland. They also took care of Youngstown State by 20 at home last week. I like the hot team here at home against one of the worst teams in basketball.
NIAGARA-Canisius under 142
Niagara has only had one game in their past eleven that has gone over this total in regulation. They rank 319th in adjusted tempo and haven’t had one game played above average tempo in those same eleven games. Canisius plays an average pace, but that’s mainly due to the fact that their pressing defense leads to short possessions for their opponent. On offense, their possessions are longer than average.
MAGIC (-5) over Hornets
Both teams have been terrible lately. Orlando is 1-8 SU in its last 9 and Charlotte is 2-10 SU in its last 12. However, Charlotte hasn’t won on the road in their last ten attempts and are 4-15 on the year. They’ve also only covered twice in those ten straight losses on the road. But the biggest reason I like this game is that two starters will be out tonight for the Hornets, Nic Batum and Cody Zeller.
CELTICS-Bulls over 207
Both teams have gone over in six of their last seven games. When they’ve matched up, they’ve gone over in five of the last six. Over the last ten games, the Bulls are averaging a total of 210 and the Celtics are averaging a total of 212. Can’t miss pick.
RAPTORS (-11.5) over Heat
I don’t even know how the Heat are gonna put together a team on the court. They’ve got seven guys out and four of them are starters (Wade, Whiteside, Dragic, and Deng). The past three games they’ve lost by 19 to the Wizards, 12 at home to the Bucks and 25 to the Thunder. And the injuries weren’t near as bad in those games. They just spent the night in Toronto, legendary for its night life. This line can’t be high enough.
CBB YTD: 91-91-6 (50.0%)
NBA YTD: 50-28-1 (64.1%)
Total YTD: 141-119-7 (54.2%)
Above .500 days: 15
.500 days: 12
Below .500 days: 10