Finished 3-3 yesterday. We’re putting last week in the rear view. I’ve never looked forward to a Monday so much in my life.
MIAMI (FL)-Duke under 153.5 – 3 units
I feel pretty good about this one. You can probably tell that by the fact I rarely put more than one unit on a game. First of all, Miami’s highest total in six conference games so far has been 141. Now, Duke’s offense is the second most efficient in the country. However, conference play has been a bit of a different story, with their efficiency dropping a bit. Here’s their game-by-game breakdown so far in the ACC:
- @ Boston College: 81 points (15th – out of 15 – in defensive efficiency in the ACC)
- @ Wake Forest: 91 points (14th)
- Virginia Tech: 82 points (9th)
- @ Clemson: 63 points (7th)
- Notre Dame: 91 points (10th)
- Syracuse: 62 points (4th)
- @ NC State: 88 points (12th)
The point I’m trying to make is that Duke has been feasting on the worst defensive teams in the league and struggling to score against the ones in the top half of the ACC. Miami ranks 2nd in ACC play in defensive efficiency. Both teams have seen a significant drop in adjusted tempo. I would suggest playing the Miami -3.5 as well, but their offense has just been really poor lately.
VMI (+6.5) over Furman
Furman is a better team, but this is a team that has won one true road game last year and one this year back in mid-November against Appalachian State, which was one of the worst teams in the country during non-conference play. They’ve lost eight straight road games since then and it’s not like they were playing the country’s elite. Winning on the road in college basketball can be a very difficult thing to do. In the Southern Conference, it’s more difficult than anywhere else. Home teams are winning 74% of games in conference play, tops in the nation. VMI is coming off a big win at home over Samford, going in as 6.5 point dogs and coming out as a 7 point winner.
IOWA STATE (-1.5) over Kansas
The Cyclones just don’t lose in Hilton very often. They’ve lost twice in the past couple of seasons and both of them were to Baylor. They’re one of the most experienced groups in the country and one of the few in the conference that can say they’ve experienced success over Kansas. They beat them in two out of the three meetings they had last year. The Jayhawks have been shaky lately, going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four. Those two losses were both on the road, losing by 11 to West Virginia and getting smashed by Oklahoma State by 19. They’ve played four road games all year and their offense hasn’t been great in any of them, topping out at 70 points against San Diego State.
GRIZZLIES (-5) over Magic
Memphis is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last ten games at home. The Magic are a young team that have hit a big wall lately, going 2-9 SU and ATS in their last 11 games. Memphis has won eight straight in the series and in the last seven they’ve won by at least five points.
JAZZ (-2) over Pistons
Detroit is 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games on the road. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS at home in its last six and 5-2 SU in their last seven at home. Those are trends that have been season long ones as well. Utah has the rebounding ability to slow Andre Drummond down on the boards, which they’ve demonstrated in the past.
KINGS (-7.5) over Hornets
The Kings are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winning their last five games and covering all five of them. In the Hornets last 11 games on the road, they’ve gone 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS. It looks like Rudy Gay will be back for the Kings, while Nic Batum and Cody Zeller are still out for the Hornets.
CBB YTD: 99-102-7 (49.3%)
NBA YTD: 52-31-1 (62.7%)
Total YTD: 151-133-8 (53.2%)
Above .500 days: 15
.500 days: 13
Below .500 days: 11