Picks of the Day: CBB and NBA 1/30

2-1 yesterday. 18-13-1 on the week. It’s Saturday, which has been a brutal day for me the past couple of weeks. Just a fair warning. I tried to be more selective today.

CBB

THE CITADEL (-4.5) over VMI

The Citadel fires up threes at a higher rate than anyone and VMI has been allowing other teams to shoot over 40% from there in conference play. VMI turns it over at a high rate already and The Citadel’s press isn’t gonna help that problem. VMI will get to the line, but they’ve been below average at hitting them in the Southern.

LOUISIANA-MONROE (-6) over Texas State

Texas St. is on the back end of their Louisiana road trip and the first leg didn’t go well, losing to ULL by 26. Monroe just took down Arlington – who didn’t have their top scorer – but they’ve been cruising at home all year.

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-5.5) over UT-Arlington

Arlington hasn’t been the same since Hervey went down, not surprising considering he averaged 18 points a game. Lafayatte was won their last five games by an average of 20.2 points per game.

Memphis (+9.5) over SMU

This one is pure feel. Memphis is a young, talented team that’s only 13-7, but their 7 losses have been by an average of 4.8 points. Their biggest was 10 at South Carolina. SMU is a really good team that can’t make the tournament. The only thing they truly had going for them was pushing for an undefeated season. That was just ruined in their last game at Temple. I expect less energy from them and the home crowd.

HAWAII (-7) over Long Beach State

Going out to play at Hawaii is an absolutely brutal trip, especially coming off an exhausting overtime comeback win two days before. The Rainbow Warriors are 16-2 and their only losses are by 8 points at Texas Tech and 3 points at home against Oklahoma. Long Beach struggles with Hawaii’s pressure as well. In three games last year, they turned it over 54 times (18 per game).

NBA

RAPTORS-Pistons over 204

The last five times these two have matched up they’ve hit the over and both teams have been in triple digits. The Raptors haven’t been giving up many points lately, but they’ve been fortunate to be playing teams without some of their top scorers. Pistons have been averaging a 210 total over their last ten games.

GRIZZLIES (-2.5) over Kings

Kings are on a three game slide and none of those three games have come against playoff teams. They’re 8-14 on the road all year. Memphis is 18-7 at home this year and they’ve won nine of the last ten in this series. A big part of the reason is that Boogie Cousins struggles against them.

Boogie’s career numbers against all of the NBA:

Points: 19.7
Rebounds: 10.7
FG%: .461
TS%: .526
O-Rating: 102
D-Rating: 104
Usage: 31.0
Fouls: 3.9
Minutes: 31.3

Boogie’s career numbers against Memphis:

Points: 15.5
Rebounds: 8.8
FG%: .442
TS%: .497
O-Rating: 97
D-Rating: 104
Usage: 28.7
Fouls: 4.4
Minutes: 28.3

Look for some over/unders on Boogie’s numbers tomorrow to come out. Remember I played the unders on points and rebounds with him when he went up against Washington earlier this year and we ended up hitting both of those and the line.


CBB YTD: 112-109-8 (50.7%)

NBA YTD: 57-37-1 (60.6%)

Total YTD: 169-146-9 (53.7%)

Above .500 days: 19

.500 days: 14

Below .500 days: 11

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