Picks of the Day: CBB and NBA 2/2

5-1 yesterday.

I’m not about to feel bad for the way the Cavs-Pacers over hit last night. I’ve suffered enough bad beats and backdoor covers to feel sorry for having one break my way. The game was off to a great start with a total of 109 in the first half. The Cavs scored 33 points in the first quarter. They scored 36 in the entire second half. Luckily, there was 25 points scored in overtime and the over ended up hitting.

Mercer took care of business as expected, hitting the three unit play easily. They won the rebounding battle and Samford couldn’t hit shots just like we drew up.

Monmouth worked out according to plan as well. Justin Robinson feasted off turnovers and free throws like I had hoped for.

UNC was the only one that didn’t work out. Jackson and Johnson did have a great day on the inside, but they weren’t given enough opportunities. Marcus Paige was too busy going 3-13.

Regardless it was a 4-1 day in CBB and we’re 24-16-1 (60%) over the last eight days. I can’t help but think what the record would be if I didn’t have those two miserable Saturdays, but it is what it is. I went 18-30 on those two days. Without it, I’d be at 54.5% in CBB and 56.8% total. Lesson learned, though. I played too many games just because it was a huge slate and I rushed myself.

Such is life. Even if you put $100 on each play so far, you’d be up a grand.

CBB

GEORGIA-South Carolina over 139.5

There will be a high amount of free throws taken in this game. While Georgia doesn’t typically play a fast offensive pace, they will play that way if their opponent forces the issue. South Carolina forces the issue. SC’s opponents also typically shoot a ton of threes. That’s not the way Georgia plays either, but JJ Frazier and Kenny Gaines make them at a high rate when they take them.

Virginia Tech (+10) over SYRACUSE

Last year the Hokies were double digit dogs against the Orange twice and they only lost by two each time. That’s largely due to the fact that they went a combined 19-43 from distance. Syracuse’s zone forces teams to shoot from the outside and VT is making close to 38% of their threes in conference play. The Hokies are getting to the line at an incredible rate in ACC play as well. Last year when these two met in the Carrier Dome, VT was up 13 in the second half.

Louisiana-Monroe (+10.5) over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE – 2 Units

Monroe has won this matchup three times in a row – once earlier this year – and they’ve done it twice as underdogs. Majok Deng killed the Cajuns inside and put up 30 points in the first meeting this year. The Warhawks don’t turn the ball over and they have the highest EffFG% in the league. Another key component is that they don’t foul at a high rate and they don’t give a lot of second-chance opportunities and ULL lives off of free throws and putbacks. Monroe also plays a lot of zone and forces opponents to shoot from outside. Once again, another weakness for Lafayette. While ULL has been winning big lately, Monroe has been doing the same, winning their last four games by an average margin of 17 points.

IOWA STATE (-5) over West Virginia – 2 Units
IOWA STATE-West Virginia under 157

The Cyclones have won this matchup three straight times by an average of 13 points per game. West Virginia thrives on their press defense and creating turnovers, but ISU takes care of the ball. Point guard Monte Morris has turned the ball over two times in his four career meetings with the Mountaineers. Jonathan Holton – the point man of the press for WVU – is still out due to suspension. The first game without him resulted in a 17 point loss to Florida. The Mountaineers also thrive on second chance opportunities and Holton is their best offensive rebounder. Iowa State’s good at stopping that as well. WVU gets to the line a lot, but ISU’s opponents have shot free throws at the lowest rate in the country. I think WV’s going to struggle to score and that’s why I like the under. It would be the fourth straight time the under’s hit in a row between these two.

NBA

KNICKS-Celtics over 101.5 1st Half
KNICKS (+2) over Celtics 1st Half

Celts play at the third fastest pace in the league. They’ve averaged a 219 total over the past ten games. While the Knicks don’t play as fast or score as much, they played the Celtics style when they played at MSG on Jan. 12. The final score in that one was 120-114. NY has had an issue lately of getting off to good starts scoring in the first half and struggling in the second. I think there’s a lot of value here with the game total being at 209.

Heat (+4) over ROCKETS

Dwight Howard is suspended for this one. He missed the first game these two played and the Heat won by 20. While Whiteside is still out for the Heat, they might be better off without him. Since they’ve gotten Wade and Dragic back, Miami is 4-0 SU and ATS. Amare has been getting more minutes in the absence of Whiteside and he’s been rebounding at a really high rate, which is bad news for the Rockets when Howard is out. Rockets have dropped three straight, including a 31 point loss to the Spurs and a home loss to the scuffling Wizards. They made 17 three-pointers in that one and still lost.


CBB YTD: 120-115-8 (51.1%)

NBA YTD: 61-39-1 (61.0%)

Total YTD: 181-154-9 (54.0%)

Above .500 days: 21

.500 days: 14

Below .500 days: 12

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