Picks of the Day: CBB and NBA 2/3

4-5-1 yesterday. 9-5-1 on the week.

The Iowa State loss/under push hurt. The Cyclones were up 25-10. Looked like it was gonna be a rout. Then it hit the shits when Niang started doing things like dribbling behind his back trying to break a press. Morris took care of the ball as expected but Niang had 8 turnovers and McKay chipped in with 4 of his own. They went 11-19 from the free throw line. They got destroyed on the glass. The under was in great shape with only 70 points at half. But WV hit every free throw down the stretch – besides one that they got the rebound on – and Abdel Nader decided he needed to go make a lay-up with his team down 7 and 6 seconds on the clock and we pushed.

The SC-Georgia game just sucked. SC shot 31%. I can’t believe they won 15 games in a row.

Va Tech and UL Monroe both took care of business, but they both went into overtime, which made things scarier than they needed to be.

The Heat sucked. They made Marcus Thornton and Josh Smith look like all-stars and they gave up more points than they had all season. Wade and Bosh went a combined 9-29. Thanks, fellas.

Nobody could make shots in the Celtics-Knicks game, but at least the Knicks covered in the first half. Anytime I need the Knicks to do anything positive, guarantee that Carmelo is gonna shoot 30% tops.


George Mason (+13) over RICHMOND

There’s no major advantage that Richmond has over the Patriots. They’ll most likely win the turnover battle, but not in a major way. GMU is a better rebounding team. Richmond lives on the inside, but GMU has the size and skill to defend well down low. The Patriots have won two of the last three meetings, once as an underdog.

VCU (-14) over La Salle

The Explorers literally don’t have any area where they’re better than the Rams. The best they can hope for is VCU struggles at the line. The Rams are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in conference play.

Maryland (-6) over NEBRASKA

Nebraska struggles to guard bigs. Look no further than the 45 points they gave up to Purdue’s centers in their 40 minutes of combined playing time. Remember they got shredded by Dererk Pardon in his second career game for Northwestern. He hasn’t come close to putting up similar numbers since. The Terps also have the guys to slow down Shields and White for the Huskers.

Mississippi (-2.5) over MISSOURI

The Tigers aren’t good and they haven’t been all that competitive. They can’t shoot at all. Saiz is still out for Ole Miss, but Perez has stepped in and done a nice job in his place. Stefan Moody will be the best player on the floor.

WICHITA STATE (-15.5) over Southern Illinois – 2 Units

Shockers are killing everyone. They’re far and away the best team in the Missouri Valley.


THUNDER-Magic over 211.5

Both teams have gone over in five of their last six. The Thunder haven’t had a total lower than 212 in that stretch. The Magic haven’t been scoring a ton lately, but almost everyone facing the Thunder has recently. In addition, they’ve been giving up 7 more points a game than their average over the last ten games. That’s not a good trend when you’re about to play OKC.

Warriors (-10.5) over WIZARDS

Golden State has been beating people by an even higher margin than usual lately. The Wiz have gotten blown out by the Thunder, Raptors, and Celtics in their last five games and they also lost to the Nuggets. GS is 16-8-2 ATS on the road this year, while Washington has covered once in their last seven home games.

JAZZ (-6.5) over Nuggets
JAZZ-Nuggets under 195.5

Utah has covered 8 of the last 9 in this series. In their last two trips to Utah, Denver has averaged 86 points. Six of their last seven meetings have hit the under. Utah has won and covered four of their last five, with the only loss being a narrow one to Detroit.


Oregon (+8000) to win national championship

Really like the value here on the Ducks. They have the 25th lowest odds, but if the tournament started today they’d likely be a 2 or 3 seed. They have the same odds as LSU, who most likely wouldn’t make the tournament right now. Indiana (6-7 seed), Wichita State (8-9 seed), and UConn (10-11 seed) all have better odds. Oregon is likely going to win the Pac-12 outright and yet Arizona has better odds as well and the Ducks just handled the Wildcats in Tuscon this past week.

Oregon is #2 in the RPI, #14 in KenPom, and in the low 20s in both the Sagarin and BPI ratings. They’re 18-4 and they’ve played a top-20 schedule. All four losses were true road games. They have the ninth most efficient offense in the country and they’ve done that against the highest rated schedule in terms of opponents defensive efficiency.

They don’t have any glaring holes. They have a tendency to give up too many offensive rebounds, but they make up for it by getting more of their own. The biggest issue is that they only go about seven or eight deep. You know who else went seven or eight deep? Duke last year. They’re not as talented as that team, but no one else in the country is either.

I’m not predicting the Ducks to win it all, but I think if they played on the east coast they’d have A LOT lower odds. A lot of people just don’t stay up to watch them, though. They’re athletic, they’ve got really quality guards and one of the best big guys in the conference in Chris Boucher.

CBB YTD: 123-118-9 (51.0%)

NBA YTD: 62-41-1 (60.2%)

Total YTD: 185-159-10 (53.8%)

Above .500 days: 21

.500 days: 14

Below .500 days: 13


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