Picks of the Day: CBB and NBA 2/4

8-2 yesterday. 17-7-1 on the week.

It was just a beautiful day yesterday. We were only 4 points away from not having any losses.

CBB

James Madison (-6) over DREXEL

The Dukes have four straight wins over the Dragons, but who doesn’t at this point. Drexel stinks. JMU won by 23 in their match-up earlier this year. Drexel was terrible from three-point range and statistics support that it’ll just be a repeat this time. Drexel’s only good at one thing on defense and that’s turning people over, but the Dukes don’t turn it over and they only had 10 in the first game.

HOFSTRA (-4) over UNC-Wilmington

Hofstra is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of this matchup. They’re going to handle UNCW’s press just fine, they’ll win the rebounding battle, and they’ll live on second chance points and free throws.

CHATTANOOGA (-9.5) over Wofford

Mocs won at Wofford by nine earlier this year. They’ll live inside and at the free throw line. The Terriers can’t defend the interior well. The Mocs will win the turnover battle as well. Wofford lives off of three-pointers and free throws, but Chattanooga defends the three pretty well and doesn’t send people to the line.

UL-Lafayette (-8) over APPALACHIAN STATE

The Cajuns have made this one a blowout in all three of their previous meetings. They’ll likely win the turnover and rebounding battles. Shawn Long is their best player and maybe the best rebounder in the country. He’s gonna live on the inside on putbacks and free throws. Expect the Mountaineers to struggle from the outside as well, which is where they get a lot of their offense.

South Florida (+19) over CINCINNATI – 3 Units
South Florida (+11.5) over CINCINNATI 1st Half – 2 Units

South Florida-CINCINNATI under 130.5

USF’s record is pretty bad (5-18), but they’ve been competitive all year. Of those 18 losses, two of them came with a margin this big – 21 to Kentucky and 19 to NC State. They’ve covered their last three games, including wins over Houston and Tulane on the road. The difference between the spread and the result was a combined 39 points in their favor in those games.

And then we get to the matchup part of this. Ever since USF really started sucking back in the 2012-13 season, Cinci has been favored by an average of 13 points per game. They’ve won all of them, but they haven’t covered once. Their biggest win was 8 points and the average is 5.6. Maybe you’ll recall I took the under (it hit) in their first meeting this year. Cinci was 15.5 point favorites and won by three. The reason USF stays with them so well is that they’re massive (they start two 6’11” guys and a 6’8″guy at the 3) and they defend the paint well, which is where the Bearcats get a lot of their points. Cinci only scored one point in the final ten minutes of their last matchup. They’ll lose the turnover battle, but that’s nothing new. They’ll be competitive with Cinci on the glass. USF missed threes and free throws in their first meeting and it didn’t really matter because their bigs were so effective down low. I also like the fact that this is sandwiched in between a big road win for Cinci over UConn and they’re about to go play another important game at Memphis this weekend.

Chris Perry is out for USF, but that might be a good thing. He’s been out for the past three games and they’ve played three of their best games all year. He had 8 points on 11 shots, 5 rebounds, 4 turnovers, and 4 fouls in the first Cinci game. I’m not worried about it. It just means more shots for freshman PG Jahmal McMurray and he’s averaged 22 points a game since Perry left. Go Bulls.

Gonzaga (-12) over LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

Zags have been winning big over everyone lately not named St. Mary’s. Loyola stinks and they’ve dropped four straight ATS. The only thing they do well defensively is create turnovers, but the Zags haven’t been giving it away often. Gonzaga’s defense has really good lately and LMU’s offense has been close to the worst in the WCC. Zags will dominate the paint in this one. Gonzaga has won their last four games over LMU by an average of 22 points, including a 23 point win earlier this year.

NBA

SUNS-Rockets over 214

The Rockets have hit the over in six straight games. The Suns have been hitting a lot of unders lately and haven’t been scoring a ton of points, but their last four games have been against teams in the bottom ten in pace. Their shooting percentages in those games haven’t actually been that terrible. Both the Suns and the Rockets are top-10 in pace all year and Houston’s been playing even faster lately. The Rockets average total over the past ten games has been 227.


CBB YTD: 128-119-9 (51.8%)

NBA YTD: 65-42-1 (60.7%)

Total YTD: 193-161-10 (54.0%)

Above .500 days: 22

.500 days: 14

Below .500 days: 13

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