Picks of the Day: CBB and NBA 2/9

1-7 yesterday. 1-7……………. 1-7.

(deep sigh)


I don’t have much to say, really. Didn’t catch a break in the close games and was just wrong otherwise. Just means I’m due today.


UCF (+10) over Cincinnati

The Knights are one of the best teams in the country ATS at 15-5 on the year. Turnovers will be a concern here tonight, but it’s “Glow Knight” at CFE Arena. Catchphrase: “It’s Lit”. Both teams are coming off a loss here. Cinci in a close one at Memphis and UCF had a game-tying shot at the buzzer waved off that would’ve sent them to overtime against Temple. The Bearcats are 1-4 ATS coming off a loss. They’re 7-10 ATS as a favorite all year. As I said before, the Knights are great ATS pretty much in all facets this year and they’re especially good when they’re on a normal schedule. With the typical 2-3 days of rest, they’re 10-1 ATS in their next game. Cinci has four true road wins on the year, but only one was convincingly – they thrashed Bowling Green (in-state) back in mid-November. Otherwise, they’ve got close victories over South Florida, UConn and VCU. They’ve lost to Memphis, Temple, SMU, and Xavier on the road.

TENNESSEE (-6) over Auburn 1st Half
TENNESSEE (-10.5) over Auburn Full Game

Yeah, Bruce Pearl got fired by Tennessee and he’s returning to coach his Auburn team. It’s also not the first time. Auburn played here last year and lost by eight, so I don’t think the Pearl thing is anything at all really. It doesn’t make his team any more talented or better on the road, where they’re 1-7 ATS. Auburn beat Tennessee at home in early January when their leading scorer Kareem Canty (18 ppg) put up 20. Guess who’s not playing today? Kareem Canty. This is their second game without him. He didn’t play their last game against Georgia and they lost by 10. But it wasn’t really that close. The Bulldogs were up 60-35 with five minutes to go before the Tigers had a useless rally.

VIRGINIA-Virginia Tech under 133

The Hoos have been locked in defensively lately, giving up no more than 50 points in their last three games. When they’re on normal rest, the under has hit 11 out of 16 times. The Hokies won this game earlier this year, so I’m not worried about a letdown game defensively for Virginia. I think they’ll keep VT in the low to mid-fifties. The Cavs are only averaging 66 themselves in the past ten games.

Wichita State (-11) over DRAKE 1st Half

For all the same reasons I’ve been on the Wichita State train lately, only I’m not going through the same second half debacle that happened the other night. Drake sucks.


HEAT-Spurs under 194.5

The Heat are the biggest under team in the league with a 17-34-1 (33%) over/under record. With one day off they’re 11-24 (31%). Coming off a loss they’re 6-15-1 (29%). As an underdog they’re 3-14-1 (18%) and 0-3 when they’re a home underdog.

The Spurs don’t have any major trends this year, but they are 9-12-1 (43%) in games against the East. Going all the way back to 2003, they’re 106-131-5 (45%) on 2-3 days off.

In addition, these two have hit four straight unders against each other. They play at two of the three slowest paces in the league and also two of the three best scoring defenses.

MAVERICKS (-2) over Jazz

The Mavs are 16-9 ATS at home and 11-6 when they’re the favorite. The Jazz are 6-10 ATS (3-13 SU) as a road dog and they’re 4-8 SU and ATS when they have 2-3 days off (they’ve had 2 days off). The Jazz are playing well recently, but the haven’t won in Dallas in their last ten chances.

CBB YTD: 147-139-9 (51.4%)

NBA YTD: 69-53-1 (56.6%)

Total YTD: 216-192-10 (52.9%)

Above .500 days: 24

.500 days: 14

Below .500 days: 15


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