Picks of the Day: CBB and NBA 2/10

4-3 yesterday. 5-10 on the week.

I thought it was gonna be a great day. It started off well. Tennessee was cruising, UCF was only down 1 at half, Wichita first half hit by a mile, the Mavs were winning the whole game.

But then UCF got blown out in the second half. The Mavs took the lead two minutes into the game and held it for 40 straight minutes. They were up 15 at one point. But then it turned into a back and forth game and they held a three-point lead until Rodney Hood hit a three with a second left and the Mavs lost in overtime. Second straight night that’s happened. Three games that could’ve gone either way and they all bounced the other. That’s the difference between a winning two days and being 5-10. Enough to break a man.

CBB

SETON HALL (-2) over Butler
SETON HALL-Butler under 145.5

The Pirates have been locked in lately, winning four straight and covering seven straight. Their defense has been great on the winning streak, giving up no more than 65 points in a game and no more than 0.96 points per possession. They’re 9-3 ATS at home. The Bulldogs are just 2-5 ATS (3-4 SU) on the road and their best win on the road in conference is DePaul.

Seton Hall has also hit four straight unders and have hit the under in eight of ten when they’re a home favorite. Butler has gone under in eight of their last nine. They haven’t scored above 68 in any of their road losses.

St. Bonaventure (-4.5) over FORDHAM – 5 Units

Neither defense is very good here, but the Bonnies have been better than the Rams in conference and Fordham’s offense can’t hold the Bonnies’ jock strap. The only thing Fordham’s D is good at is forcing turnovers, but the Bonnies don’t give it away often. Fordham will send the Bonnies to the line often and it’s gonna go poorly for them because they’re the third-best free throw shooting team in the country. The Rams will get some points at the other end inside, but they jack too many threes for a team that’s shooting 29% in conference. Their three wins in the A-10 this year are against the bottom three teams in the league. Their leading scorer and the conference leader in steals, Mandell Thomas, isn’t likely to play.

The Bonnies are 7-3 ATS in conference and 6-3-1 ATS as a favorite all year. Meanwhile, Fordham is 3-7 ATS in conference and 2-7 ATS as an underdog all year. The Bonnies have won eight of the last nine in this series and covered six of the last seven.

LSU (+4.5) over SOUTH CAROLINA

I’m not going to get too deep in the numbers, because I laid out my thoughts on South Carolina being overrated this past weekend. Yes, I lost the Texas A&M play, but SC hitting 12-21 threes ain’t happening again. Even with that number, they’re still only shooting 31% from deep. LSU’s a better team long-term. Since they got healthy and started SEC play, they’ve gone up 42 spots in KenPom’s rankings. SC’s gone down 34 since their first SEC game until that bullshit A&M game, who’s actually overrated as well.

NBA

CELTICS-Clippers under 210.5

These are two top-10 teams in offensive efficiency, but they’re also both in the top-10 defensively. The Clippers are playing particularly well on defense lately. They’ve only given up triple digits once in their past nine games. 15 of their 23 games against the Eastern Conference have gone under. The Celtics are nearly .500 in the totals department, but on back-to-backs they’ve hit the under on 9 of their first 12 this year. 17 of the last 25 in this matchup have gone under.

Hawks (-4) over BULLS

The Hawks are the better team even if Jimmy Butler wasn’t out. They did just lose back-to-back games to the Magic, but they got abused inside by Vucevic without Splitter in the lineup. Chicago doesn’t have that same type of player to take advantage of that weakness right now for Atlanta. I’m just gonna continue to fade the Bulls.

Raptors (-6) over TIMBERWOLVES

Toronto rather quietly is rated out as the fifth best team in the league. They’ve also won 14 of their last 15 games and covered 10 of those in the process. The Wolves are young and talented, but they’re still not a good team and they’ve played really poorly against top-five teams in the league. The Raptors have been good all year on the road (16-10 ATS), even as a favorite (8-6 ATS), and have been steady after a win (20-14 ATS). The opposite has been true for Minnesota. They’re just 13-22 ATS coming off a loss and 8-18-1 ATS at home, including 5-9-1 ATS as an underdog at home.

Warriors (-10) over SUNS 1st Half
Warriors (-16) over SUNS Full Game

Everything points in the Warriors favor to win this game. Everything.


CBB YTD: 151-140-9 (51.9%)

NBA YTD: 69-55-1 (55.6%)

Total YTD: 220-195-10 (53.0%)

Above .500 days: 25

.500 days: 14

Below .500 days: 15

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