Picks of the Day: CBB 2/18

Staying away from the first couple days of the NBA coming back from All-Star Break.

8-11 yesterday.

2H plays:

UMass -2.5 W
Auburn-Arkansas U80.5 L
Texas Tech +5 WVT-Miami U75 W
FSU -7 L
Drake +5 W
LSU -4 L
UNC -4.5 L
Zona -4 W

– Remember that stat about Auburn topping out at 29% in their three games without Canty? They shot 61% from the field and 65% from three ON THE ROAD against Arkansas. Arkansas doesn’t defend the three well, but holy shit.

– I’m quitting you, Bonnies.

I do worry a little bit about the Bonnies having a big game against Dayton on Saturday, but I’m honestly not sure it matters.

Sweet analysis, dipshit.

– Shoulda put more on Illinois St. That game was a rout from the jump. Next Saturday: the Redbirds travel to Wichita. Mark it on your calendars.

– Mentioned it on Twitter, but I like Miami at +5000 to win it all. So far I’ve put a little something on them, Oregon at +8000, and Zona at +3500. You can’t come close to getting that number for the Ducks, but Zona and Miami are still in the area.

– Wooden Award. I’m on board with Buddy at +200, but things are getting a little more interesting here down the stretch. I’m not even sure who even has it listed now, but Denzel Valentine would be a nice hedge if you can get it. He’s on a tear right now and it’s about March/Izzo time so the Spartans are likely to go on a run towards the end of the season. They’ll be favored in their final five games and I think they’re the favorite to win the Big Ten tourney. I gotta say, Grayson Allen is making a push as well.

MARSHALL-Charlotte over 179

It’s an absurdly high total, but both of these teams hit overs on a regular basis. Marshall is fourth in tempo and Charlotte is 75th. Marshall is fifth in scoring and Charlotte is 67th. They’ve both hit triple digits multiple times this year. Charlotte’s done it in their past two games. Both of them also have well below-average defenses. They combined for 198 in their first meeting.

DELAWARE-Charleston under 130

Charleston has hit the over in two games during their 14 CAA games. They haven’t had a total over 130 since Jan. 2. That lines up with the time that they lost Canyon Barry to injury. He was practically their offense. They rank 281st in offensive efficiency and are 340th in tempo. But they’re 16-9 because they have the 14th most efficient defense. They’re a grinding team. Delaware’s a bad team that essentially just mimics the team they’re playing.

IPFW (+4) over South Dakota St. – 3 Units

Both of these teams are tied atop the Summit League standings. IPFW is 17-5 ATS all year. They’ve lost one time at home all year and it was in a let down spot after they got a huge win over North Dakota St. They beat SDSU at home last year by 10 as a 3-point dog. The Mastodons are a big three-point shooting team and they hit a ton of them at home. Of the 11 games they’ve played at home, in nine of them they’ve shot 40% or better from three. Of the six games the Jackrabbits have lost this year, all six of them have been on the road. Five of them were to teams at least 50 spots lower than them on the KenPom rankings. They beat IPFW by 16 at home, but that was the Mastodons first game without Mo Evans, who was giving them 17 ppg.

Western Carolina (+5) over MERCER First Half – 2 Units
Western Carolina (+8) over MERCER Full Game

I’ve been fading Mercer since the death of Jibri Bryan and the suspension of Ringer and Lewis and I’ll continue to do so until they prove otherwise. Western Carolina has won three of four, including a victory over Chattanooga. They were up 8 in the second half at ETSU in their last game before losing the lead late. They beat the Bears at home earlier and Lewis’s 27 points were a big reason Mercer was in it.

GONZAGA (-10) over Pacific First Half – 2 units

Pacific’s played at Gonzaga three times recently and got dumped on each time. I like the Zags at home coming off a loss. They’ve run through a lot of WCC competition this year. I like the first half line because the Zags have let their foot off the gas pedal a couple of times in the second half.

BYU (-12.5) over SAN DIEGO

It’s kind of a weird setup, but these two are playing a little home-and-home series tonight and Saturday, so there’s no look ahead for BYU. The Cougars are still in contention for the league title. SD is 3-11 in the league and their next three games include the two against BYU and one against Gonzaga. Their season is practically over. Their three wins are over the bottom half of the league. The WCC has three good teams – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, and BYU – and the Toreros three games against those other top teams have resulted in losses of 33, 36, and 17 points. BYU has great guard play and the Toreros do not. They don’t defend the three well and that’s a problem against Chase Fischer and Nick Emery.

CBB YTD: 199-190-10 (51.2%)

NBA YTD: 72-59-1 (55.0%)

Total YTD: 271-249-10 (52.1%)

Above .500 days: 28

.500 days: 16

Below .500 days: 18


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