Ended up 6-6 for the day. 8-9 for the week. Originally I had given myself an extra loss in the blog yesterday. None of you dickheads helped me out, so thanks for nothing.
One in-game yesterday: Nuggets-Kings O107 2H
Thanks to both of them for being bad at defense.
Northwestern (+7) over MICHIGAN
Something like 90% of the tickets have been on the Michigan side and the line hasn’t moved. Outside of that, Michigan’s a little overvalued. They haven’t played very good basketball in February. They’re 2-4. They got blown out twice at home and they weren’t all that competitive last week playing Ohio State – an NIT team that has one quality win in nine tries all year. They got a win over Purdue at home that the Boilers basically gifted to them by blowing shots at the rim and carelessly turning the ball over late. They live and die by the three and they’ve been dying a lot lately. Northwestern isn’t great, but they’ve played pretty well over the last few games. They’re still pushing for an NIT spot – which is important if you’re Northwestern. Last year these teams split the series and the Wildcats only lost by two in Ann Arbor and that was before Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton were lost for the year and their season went completely off the rails.
Villanova (-1) over XAVIER
I don’t love Nova long-term, but it’s hard for me to stare the history of their series with X in the face and not jump on basically a pick ’em game. Since X joined the Big East a couple of years ago, Nova’s beaten them six straight times and five of those have been by double digits. They won earlier this year by 31. One of the reasons I don’t like Nova when it comes to the tournament is how often they shoot it from deep. But the games between these two have often turned into a three-point contest and Nova has knocked down more at a higher percentage every time. Xavier’s good, but the best team they’ve beaten all year is someone in the Dayton, Providence, USC realm. Nova’s resume isn’t much better in terms of big wins, but their biggest was this X team by a million. X has been good at home, but certainly not unbeatable. And yes, I know Sumner went down early in the last game. That whole thing is a bit overplayed. Sorry I don’t think losing a guy who shoots a worse percentage from the field, three, and free throw line than the team as a whole does is going to make THAT much of a difference. The team has a better O-Rating when he’s not on the floor and he’s a point guard that doesn’t lead his team in assists. Sue me.
Siena (-3.5) over FAIRFIELD
I bet on the Fighting Patsos to take down Iona on Monday and laid out my case for the Saints then. They got down 25 early before coming all the way back to take the lead late and ultimately dropping it. I still like them here against a Fairfield team that’s gotten a five game win streak against the bottom half of the MAAC.
NORTHERN IOWA (-10) over Indiana State
UNI has reestablished their dominance at home lately and ISU has lost five straight and gotten trucked the last two games. Their offense has hit the skids with 0.74 and 0.72 ppp in those last two games. The Panthers have held opponents under 60 in five of their last eight games.
WAKE FOREST (+7.5) over Notre Dame
Wake hasn’t quit on their season. They lost three hard fought games on the road at GT, NC State, and Pitt before being rewarded by drubbing BC at home over the weekend. Notre Dame’s just been okay on the road. Their defense is pretty poor and they’re going against a Wake team that has started to shoot well the last couple of games from the outside, which is where the Irish are vulnerable. They can be rebounded against and the Deacs have the horses inside to do so.
IOWA-Wisconsin under 138
The Badgers live for a good slugfest and they’re going to want to make this game the same way. Iowa’s a team that scores a lot of their points from the outside and Wisky is as good as anyone at taking those opportunities away. Teams hit a high percentage, but that’s because they typically only get them in scramble or transition opportunities and not as many in the flow of an offense.
PACERS (-7) over Knicks
HEAT-Warriors under 216.5
MAVERICKS-Thunder over 214.5
CLIPPERS-Nuggets over 213.5
CBB YTD: 213-197-10 (52.0%)
NBA YTD: 74-64-1 (53.6%)
Total YTD: 287-261-10 (52.4%)
Above .500 days: 29
.500 days: 17
Below .500 days: 19