Bounce back week last week, ending up at 17-10 with the units. Don’t love the board this week, so only a few plays.
VIRGINIA TECH (-12.5) over East Carolina – 3u
About 75% of the spread action is on the Pirates. I get it. They beat NC State at home and nearly got South Carolina on the road. The only national game the Hokies played in, they got beat by 21 and the majority of the public was on them to cover as 11 point dogs. However, Va Tech is significantly better than both of the Power 5 teams ECU has played so far and it’s in Blacksburg. The Hokies have the #3 total defense in the country right now after only giving up 124 yards to BC in a 49-0 rout last week. They outgained Tennessee in that loss by 70 yards. The reason they lost was because they were -4 in turnovers. Not likely to happen again.
AKRON (+5.5) over Appalachian St. – 4u
I thought everyone would hop off the App St. train after Miami destroyed them, but I guess not. I lost two weeks ago riding the Zips at Wisconsin, but last week they bounced back and won by 27 at Marshall as 17-point dogs. Besides the obvious talent disparity of the two teams they played, the biggest difference for Akron was their ability to throw the ball last week, which I expected more from them up in Madison. The Mountaineers Pass D is vulnerable and I like the Zips for that reason.
Pittsburgh (+7) over NORTH CAROLINA – 2u
Panthers closed as 2.5 point dogs at Oklahoma State last week (lost by a TD) and are now getting 4.5 more points at UNC. This is an easy call for me given that I think OSU is better than UNC. The reason I liked the Panthers this year outside of their running game, was that I expected their defense to improve under Narduzzi in his second year. Hasn’t really happened yet (to say the least), but they’re still playing well regardless. Their defense is only gonna get better and they’re going to continue running the ball down people’s throats, including this Saturday.
MARSHALL-Louisville over 74.5 – 2u
Louisville might hit this number on their own.
Season: 26-21-4 (55.3%)