12-6-2 last week. Apologies in advance to USF this week.
BOSTON COLLEGE (+17) over Clemson – 2u
BOSTON COLLEGE-Clemson under 43 – 2u
I just can’t stay away from this one. Last year’s contest was 34-17 Tigers in Death Valley. Clemson rolled up 532 yards of offense. I think this one plays out a little differently. First of all, I just don’t think the Tiger offense is near the level they were last year. They were able to put up 42 on Louisville last week, but that was an up-tempo, turnover-crazy, short-field type of game. They didn’t really sustain a drive until the very end. The Tiger O’s highest national ranking by any of the major metrics is 46th in total offense.
BC boasts the #1 D in total defense. They’re stout in both the run and pass game. Offensively, they suck. I’m not saying the Eagles are gonna win this one, but I’m anticipating a slow, sloppy game. Clemson is coming off that big, emotional win on Saturday night and now they have to travel and play a night game on the road, on a short week against a physical opponent.
PITTSBURGH (-6) over Georgia Tech – 2u
Pitt shows up in this space about every week, so I’m not gonna go in to much detail. The reason I particularly like this one: Pitt’s defense has been disappointing, but that’s largely been the pass defense. The run D has only given up 2.6 ypc so far this year – good for 7th in the country – and that’s obviously largely what GTech wants to do. Panthers by 14.
PENN STATE (+3) over Maryland – 3u
Kind of absurd that Maryland is favored if you ask me. They’re undefeated, but you could make the argument that the Nittany Lions have played four opponents that are better than the best team that Maryland has played, which is Central Florida. The Terps rolled over Purdue last week, but nobody is better at getting blown out by mediocre opponents than Darrell Hazell. I’m taking this one out of principle.
KANSAS STATE-Texas Tech over 68 – 2u
Rarely do you see a total this low for a TT game, but QB Patrick Mahomes is out. Backup Nic Shimonek takes over. He went 15/21 for 271 yards and 3 TDs after Mahomes went out last week. I’m not worried. The Red Raiders are a scoring machine and also swiss cheese on defense.
Notre Dame (+2.5) over NC STATE – 2u
Notre Dame-NC STATE over 64 – 3u
I still don’t believe in the Wolfpack and the points should pile up in a hurry.
SOUTH FLORIDA (-16) over East Carolina – 4u
The Bulls get the kiss of death this week with the biggest bet. The Pirates defense is terrible. Their QB is banged up. Even their radio announcers gave up on them. USF by 40.
Florida State (+3) over MIAMI (FL) – 2u
The U isn’t back until they actually win one of these games.
UNC-VT under 52.5 – 3u
I already got burned on an over by Hurricane Matthew (the only current TD is a blocked punt). I’m getting it back on an under.
Season: 45-31-6 (59.2%)