Week 10 CFB Picks

13-7 last week.

CINCINNATI (+8) over BYU – 2u

Just have to take this one out of principle. Six of eight BYU games have been decided by a field goal or less. One was decided by a touchdown and the other one they dick kicked Michigan State up and down the field.

Cincinnati kind of stinks, but not to the point they should be catching more than a touchdown at home against a team intent on taking games down to the wire. I also think the Bearcats will be able to put up some points on BYU. The Cougars have one of the worst pass defenses in the country and their front 7 is very banged up.

Jamaal Williams is back for BYU, but Cinci’s run defense should be able to somewhat hold him in check.

Oklahoma State (+3) over KANSAS STATE – 2u

I’ve been on Team Pokes all year. Last week was a big test and they passed with flying colors. Manhattan is always a tough place to go play, but the biggest reason I like the Cowboys here is I believe Mason Rudolph could have a big day against a Wildcat pass defense that is one of the worst in the country.

UTSA (+21 -120) over MTSU – 3u

I’m buying the half point here to make it an even three touchdowns. I don’t think it’ll be necessary, but it’s a relative small price to pay.

MTSU has a tough time blowing people out, mainly due to the fact that their defense is suspect. By “suspect”, I mean that they give up more than 34 points per game. People like to throw on the Blue Raiders and UTSA QB Dalton Sturm has had a really good year and can take advantage.

The line was surprising to me mainly  due to the fact that UTSA is 4-4 and actually has a positive point differential. They haven’t played too difficult of a schedule, but they haven’t been blown out once and they nearly knocked off Arizona State earlier in the year. Their defense is actually pretty solid. They haven’t given up more than 33 points in regulation all year. The 52 they gave up to UTEP in a 5OT game skews their PPG allowed numbers. I wouldn’t be surprised if MTSU tops that 33 mark, but UTSA will be able to hold their own on offense.

BAYLOR (-8) over TCU – 3u

The difference between Baylor at home and on the road is night and day. They’re coming off that heartbreaker of a loss to Texas and I think getting TCU at home is a great way to rebound. Eight isn’t a great number, but there are a lot of similarities to a couple of weeks ago when I was on WVU against the Frogs at home.

For one, TCU isn’t very good on the road. It also appears that maybe they’re just not good at all.

Second, Baylor’s pass defense – like WVU – is one of the best in the country. That’s a problem for an offense that is so dependent on gaining yards through the air.

And finally, Baylor is good in the run and pass game on offense. TCU’s numbers look great against the run, but they’ve only played two above average rushing offenses all year. They held up okay against WVU, but Oklahoma shredded them for 260 yards on the ground. If you can run on the Frogs, it allows teams to expose their already average pass defense.

Just a reminder that TCU’s best win is still a toss-up between Iowa State or SMU. Or maybe South Dakota State, actually. Either way, they’re 1-3 in their last four with that one win being by one point over Kansas.

WESTERN KENTUCKY-FIU over 66.5 – 2u

It’s basically just the same as the FIU-MTSU over last week. FIU’s offense has been greatly improved since Ron Turner left. WKU is slightly better than MTSU on defense, but they’re also slightly better on offense and they’ve been humming lately. 50+ in three of their last four games.

WASHINGTON STATE (-16.5) over Arizona – 2u

The Cougs didn’t come through for us last week, but I’ll take another flyer on them this week. Arizona is bad and getting worse. They gave Washington a run at home earlier in the year, came up short, and have now lost three of the last four by 21+. I think the Wazzu run D will hold up against the Wildcats rushing attack and will likely win the turnover battle.

Nebraska (+17) over OHIO STATE – 2u

Been a while since OSU really beat anybody soundly, no? Even that 21-point win over IU a month ago wasn’t as impressive as the score would indicate. There’s no glaring disadvantage for the Huskers here to be getting that many points. They’ve been good on the road.

TEXAS TECH-Texas over 81 – 1u

I’ll be honest here, I just wanted something to roll with in the noon slot. This was the most entertaining option.

Leans

Louisville (-25) over BOSTON COLLEGE

I think the Cards are going to eviscerate the BC D, especially after last week’s scare and they’ll be motivated after their (fundamentally useless) playoff ranking. I’d do it, but I’m too big of a pussy to lay 25 on the road.

Syracuse (+27) over CLEMSON

I’d probably fire away if it was 28. I think Syracuse can score enough points to hang around and their defense is getting better. It would seem like a nice spot to bet against Clemson after their big win over Florida State last week and Cuse coming off a bye, but I got burned taking Boston College after Clemson’s win over Louisville earlier this year.

Season: 94-63-12 (59.9%)

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