Week 11 CFB Picks

10-7 last week. Weird week. First of all, I’ve spent the past couple days walking around thinking I went 10-9. Actually, that happens about 50% of the time. Turns out I’m not great at counting when I’m heavily sauced.

It was the first week I can remember in a while being way off on two occasions. I legit thought Baylor might beat TCU by 40 and it turned out to be the opposite. And also Nebraska obviously didn’t come close to covering the 17. Although I would’ve at least liked to see the game finish with Tommy Armstrong at QB. The best thing they had going on offense was his mobility and you can’t underestimate just how bad Ryker Fyfe is at playing football.

With that said, it was still a winning week and we also won a couple games big with UTSA and Wazzu.

Let’s keep it going, degenerates.

12:oo pm

Rutgers (+14.5) over MICHIGAN STATE – 2u

MSU hasn’t won a game since the middle of September. Their two wins are over 3-6 Notre Dame and Furman (they only won by 15). They stink. And of course Rutgers is terrible, as well, but if you take away the three opponents they’ve played currently in the Top 5 of the CFP they’ve been respectable. They’re at least still competing. Give me the two touchdowns and I’ll ride against the team that is a net -95 against the spread this year.

3:30 pm

CLEMSON-Pittsburgh over 66.5 – 2u

In their 8 games against FBS competition, Pitt has scored a minimum of 28 points every game and put up 36+ in seven of those games. They’ve also given up a minimum of 27 points in each of those games. Clemson will be the best defense they’ve played, but teams like Miami, Virginia Tech, and Penn State are all Top 30 defenses. They can run or throw.

For Clemson’s part, they haven’t been as consistent on offense, but they have been more explosive and Pitt’s D still hasn’t figured things out. They’re going to get shredded.

VIRGINIA TECH (-13.5) over Georgia Tech – 2u

GT is 5-4. GT is 0-4 against Top 50 opponents and have lost by an average margin of 16 ppg. Limit that to the Top 25 and they’re 0-3, losing by more than 20 ppg. VT is in the Top 15-20 range. Even better, they’re one of the five best teams in the country in home games. They’ve blasted every team to come into Blacksburg.

Bud Foster’s defense hasn’t given up more than 28 points to Paul Johnson’s triple option offense. Justin Fuente has had the Hokie offense rolling this year – especially so at home – and the Yellow Jacket D hasn’t been very successful at slowing down much of anything.

WESTERN KENTUCKY-North Texas over 65 – 2u

Gonna continue to ride the WKU overs. Their offense is cooking. 44+ in six straight games. The way I’m picturing this is WKU getting up early and forcing NT to try and keep up with them by passing. The Mean Green already prefer to throw the ball and dink and dunk their way down the field. The Hilltopper pass D allows easy completions for a bunch of yards. I think NT will score enough to push this one over the top.

GEORGIA-Auburn under 48.5 – 2u

Two Top 20 defenses and a lot of running plays is a good recipe for an under.

UTSA (+22.5) over LOUISIANA TECH – 2u

I’ll ride with UTSA again this week. They covered last week by 41 points. It was obviously tainted by Brent Stockstill going out for MTSU, but even still, they were up 14-7 at the time. LT is probably better than MTSU, but they do still give up points, UTSA’s defense is still solid, and the Roadrunners just don’t get blown out.

7:00 pm

MARSHALL (+9.5) over MTSU – 3u

I repeat: Brent Stockstill is out. That’s a huge blow to that offense. Freshman John Urzua takes over and he’s thrown four picks in 44 attempts this year. His first career start is now on the road in a night game. Not that Marshall presents the most intimidating atmosphere, but still. MTSU will still score some, but Marshall will be able to keep up against the porous Blue Raider defense. I don’t hate the +280 ML.

7:30 pm

WASHINGTON (-8.5) over USC – 2u

I think Washington is just a better version of USC. The Huskies are awesome at home. The competition admittedly hasn’t been the greatest, but they’re 5-0 with an average margin of 36 points. It’s a mid-evening start in a stadium that will be juiced. Sam Darnold has been awesome since he took over at QB for the Trojans. Some might say too awesome. I think he’s going to have his first freshman “moment” this week in that environment against a defense that’s Top 10 in takeaways and Top 25 in sack percentage.

Minnesota (+7) over NEBRASKA – 3u

I would like this line, even if Tommy Armstrong was playing with absolute certainty. But that’s still up in the air. They’ll probably know whether he goes by Thursday or Friday. If he’s ruled out, there’s no way you get this number.

But like I said, I still like it anyway. You’ve got two teams that run the ball 60+% of the time. Nebraska is below average against the run and Minnesota is in the Top 15 defending the run. The Gophers are actually in that same category against the pass.

Minnesota’s been great on the road this year: 3 point loss to Penn State, 21 point win at Maryland, and a 23 point win at Illinois. They’re +38.5 ATS in total in those three games.

Leans

KANSAS (+10) over Iowa State

Feel like the Jayhawks are going to go balls out for this one. Iowa State stinks on the road. I’ve already made my one wager on Kansas football for the year, so I’ll ultimately pass.

Season: 104-70-12 (59.8%)

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