First big day of the season last year, going 7-0. I’m not as fond of the board today, but still like a few plays.
WESTERN KENTUCKY (+6.5) over Ohio
Similar to James Madison yesterday, this is Western Kentucky’s first home game in a month. However, the difference is they did play really well at home early in the season. They’re finally playing with a full roster, as well.
Ohio is a better team, but they’re so reliant on their perimeter shooting and their two worst shooting performances have come in true road games. That’s been a weakness defensively for WKU, but again, they’ve been playing in other teams’ gyms for a month.
The Toppers have a lot of transfer pieces still coming together, but they’ve got enough offensive skill to beat an Ohio team that’s not always the most focused defensively.
Arkansas State (+6.5) over Alabama
The Tide keeps launching threes, which is a problem because they’re not good at making them. It’s an even bigger problem in this game because the Wolves are limiting teams to 27% from outside.
ASU themselves isn’t a high-volume three-point shooting team, but they knock down a high percentage and that’s where Bama has been beat all year.
The Wolves are 3-1 against Top 100 KenPom teams this year. Bama is 0-5.
BOISE STATE (-12.5) over CS Northridge
Boise is really good at home. They’ve lost two games there in the past 2.5 years. CSUN hasn’t won away from home this year and only came close once (St. John’s). They just lost to something called Bethesda last Friday.
The Matadors will probably score a decent amount, but they’re terrible defensively, they don’t rebound, and they don’t win turnover battles.
Season: 22-16 (57.9%)