Overvalued, Undervalued, or Properly Valued 2.0: Updating NCAAB Championship Odds

If you missed the original from two weeks ago, you can find it here.

From that original, all but one of the teams that were in one of the “Overvalued” categories has the same or higher odds and vice versa with the “Undervalued” teams, so I feel like we’re on the right track. Apparently Butler’s home loss to Georgetown and needing overtime to beat DePaul really wowed some people and with every Baylor win people somehow believe less in them.

Image result for chris boucher

Properly Valued

1. Kentucky +550 (MLPPR: 3)

Two weeks ago: “Properly Valued” +450 (MLPPR: 4)

Their odds have only gotten slightly worse since we last evaluated two weeks ago. Since then, they’re 2-2 with losses at Tennessee and home against Kansas.

The Wildcats are obviously talented, but at the same time their two best wins are UNC on a neutral floor and South Carolina at home. Outside of that? It’s a toss-up between Arkansas, Michigan State, and Valpo.

And it’s not like they haven’t had plenty of chances. Just something to think about if you’re contemplating taking them to win a tournament where they’ll probably have to win 2-3 games in a row against elite competition.

3. Duke +850 (MLPPR: 6)

Two Weeks Ago: “Properly Valued” +850 (MLPPR: 6)

Despite the fact that the sky is falling in Durham, the Blue Devils have the exact same odds and MLPPR standing that they did two weeks ago.

Obviously the two situations aren’t exactly the same, but the 2015 national champion Duke team went 3-3 over a stretch around this time last year, which included a blowout loss at home to a Miami team that went to the NIT.

I’m not saying you’re getting good odds now, but I’m also saying this team isn’t dead yet. People forget (h/t Pardon My Take) that ’15 team had major defensive questions heading into the tournament.

9. Oregon +2000 (MLPPR: 9)

Two Weeks Ago: “Somewhat Undervalued” +2500 (MLPPR: 12)

Still not a lot of value with the Ducks and the offense has settled back down the last three games.

14. Wisconsin +2700 (MLPPR: 11)

Two Weeks Ago: “Highly Undervalued” +3500 (MLPPR: 8)

The played terribly against Rutgers and yet at no point did I ever actually believe they would lose. They don’t wow you, but they tend to stick around in games when they’re not at their best because they defend and they play a slow game. Combine that with having Bronson Koenig to repeatedly hit dagger threes and they’ll be a tough out for anybody in March.

15. Florida State +3000 (MLPPR: 15)

Two Weeks Ago: “Properly Valued” +2800 (MLPPR: 11)

A really talented team that could beat anybody, but you could also see them losing a 3/14 game in the first round.

16. Purdue +4000 (MLPPR: 16)

Two Weeks Ago: “Properly Valued” +4500 (MLPPR: 18)

They’ve now lost three games they should’ve won because their late-game offense stinks and their late-game defense might be worse.

Which is the same reason they’ve choked away games in the first round the past couple years.

I don’t think you can consider them a viable threat to do anything in March until they prove they can fix that.

19. Notre Dame +5500 (MLPPR: 19)

Two Weeks Ago: “Somewhat Undervalued” +5500 (MLPPR: 16)

They’re on a tough stretch right now, but I still really like them. Not enough to win it all, but they can beat anybody.

25. South Carolina +9000 (MLPPR: 29)

Two Weeks Ago: “Properly Valued” +22500 (MLPPR: 30)

Still the best on defense, still really bad on offense. Their odds have dropped dramatically, but they’re still in the longshot range in terms of odds and still in the “no shot” range of winning it all.

Image result for allonzo trier arizona

Somewhat Undervalued

6. Gonzaga +1000 (MLPPR: 2)

Two Weeks Ago: “Highly Undervalued” +1800 (MLPPR: 2)

Doubt them all you want, but their adjusted efficiency margin would make them the third-best team since ’08.

8. Arizona +1200 (MLPPR: 4)

Two Weeks Ago: “Highly Undervalued” +2800 (MLPPR: 7)

Not nearly as much value as two weeks ago. If they win at Oregon next weekend, they have a pretty good shot of going 18-0 in the Pac-12. Don’t say I didn’t tell you so.

12. Louisville +2500 (MLPPR: 8)

Two Weeks Ago: “Somewhat Overvalued” +2000 (MLPPR: 14)

The change in odds is kind of bizarre considering they went 3-1 since we checked in on them and that loss was at Florida State and they won the other three games by an average of 37 points. Oh, and their starting point guard didn’t play in any of those games.

40. Northwestern +30000 (MLPPR: 23)

Two Weeks Ago: Not listed

The Wildcats can’t win it all, but who cares? It’s still the greatest year they’ve had in program history.

26. Saint Mary’s +10000 (MLPPR: 21)

Two Weeks Ago: “Properly Valued” +10000 (MLPPR: 20)

At least they seem like they’re going to be a lock for the tournament this year. I’d like to at least see what they can do.

31. Wichita State +15000 (MLPPR: 24)

Two Weeks Ago: “Irrelevant At This Point” +20000 (MLPPR: 28)

Don’t look now, but the Shocker defense is rounding into form and they’re bashing MVC teams over the head every game (well, except for Illinois State).

35. Iowa State +20000 (MLPPR: 20)

Two Weeks Ago: “Highly Undervalued” +20000 (MLPPR: 17)

They could shock a 1 seed in the second round if they’re firing on all cylinders and Naz Long is hitting the dumb, out of rhythm shots that he takes, but they could also play themselves out of the tournament field if they’re not careful.

36. Kansas State +25000 (MLPPR: 26)

Two Weeks Ago: Not listed

They could beat anyone in Manhattan, but that’s not how the whole NCAA Tournament thing works.

Not Listed. Oklahoma State (MLPPR: 30)

Two Weeks Ago: Not listed

They’re starting to play really well, but the MLP rankings hate West Virginia and this team is West Virginia-lite. Although they do have Jawun Evans, whose KenPom player comps include Chris Paul, TJ Ford, and Trey Burke, which seems to indicate that Evans is pretty special.

Image result for josh hart villanova

Somewhat Overvalued

3. Villanova +850 (MLPPR: 7)

Two Weeks Ago: “Somewhat Overvalued” +850 (MLPPR: 9)

Still pretty good, though. Not sure how you can doubt anyone with “The Big Ragu” on their team. Which reminds me: it’s the biggest failure of our society that Gus Johnson hasn’t called an NCAA Tournament game since 2011.

23. Xavier +8000 (MLPPR: 28)

Two Weeks Ago: “Somewhat Overvalued” +6500 (MLPPR: 27)

It just seems like something is missing from this team. What might that be…

Image result for matt stainbrook

I think we all miss America’s favorite part-time Uber driver/full-time bucket getter.

Image result for ty jerome virginia

Highly Undervalued

11. Baylor +2200 (MLPPR: 5)

Two Weeks Ago: “Somewhat Undervalued” +1800 (MLPPR: 3)

They just keep winning.

12. Virginia +3000 (MLPPR: 1)

Two Weeks Ago: “Highly Undervalued” +3000 (MLPPR: 1)

Was actually kind of glad that they ultimately ended up losing to Villanova because it keeps the heat off of them. Unfortunately everyone knows about natural born assassin Ty Jerome now.

24. Florida +8500 (MLPPR: 13)

Two Weeks Ago: “Somewhat Undervalued” +8500 (MLPPR: 19)

I still have some doubts about the Gators, but they just won back-to-back games on the road against high-major teams by 30+ each.

26. Cincinnati +10000 (MLPPR: 12)

Two Weeks Ago: “Highly Undervalued” +15000 (MLPPR: 13)

The schedule is weak, but they’ve still won 12 in a row. If Jarron Cumberland keeps playing like he has the past couple games, the Bearcats are gonna be a…bear to get rid of in March.

36. SMU +25000 (MLPPR: 17)

Two Weeks Ago: “Somewhat Undervalued” +25000 (MLPPR: 22)

There’s not a lot of great wins to find on the resume, but they’re 18-4 and those four losses have consisted of three true road games and one on a neutral site and none of them have came against anybody outside the Top 100. They’ll be a nightmare for a team that doesn’t want to shoot it from outside.

Image result for nathan adrian west virginia

Highly Overvalued

2. Kansas +650 (MLPPR: 10)

Two Weeks Ago: “Properly Valued” +1000 (MLPPR: 5)

Admittedly, this is kind of a tough sell after they just won at Kentucky. But the front court is getting pretty thin and I mean there’s the whole “there were five members of the team that are witnesses in an alleged rape of a 16 year old” thing. Who knows what’s true with the whole deal, but at the very least it’s a distraction.

3. UCLA +850 (MLPPR: 18)

Two Weeks Ago: “Highly Overvalued” +600 (MLPPR: 15)

In a shocking turn of events it turns out that defense still matters.

7. North Carolina +1100 (MLPPR: 14)

Two Weeks Ago: “Somewhat Overvalued” +900 (MLPPR: 10)

I don’t see it.

9. West Virginia +2000 (MLPPR: 22)

Two Weeks Ago: “Highly Overvalued” +2000 (MLPPR: 24)

It’s known at this point that the rating system will never like a team like West Virginia. But they have taken it to Virginia (in Charlottesville), Baylor, and Kansas. However, they have also lost to Temple, Oklahoma (at home), and Texas Tech. Which I think speaks exactly to why the ratings don’t like them. They’re really good until a team doesn’t wilt to their pressure.

17. Creighton +5200 (MLPPR: 25)

Two Weeks Ago: “Highly Overvalued” +3000 (MLPPR: 21)

No Mo, no chance.

17. Maryland +5200 (MLPPR: NR)

Two Weeks Ago: “Irrelevant At This Point” +20000 (MLPPR: NR)

They’re not in the Top 30 of KenPom, but out of curiosity I wanted to see where they’d stack up because they’re still a 19-2 team from the Big Ten after all.

They’d be 28th.

19. Butler +5500 (MLPPR: 27)

Two Weeks Ago: “Somewhat Overvalued” +6500 (MLPPR: 25)

They racked up a lot of good wins in the non-conference, but they’ve played a lot of close games (won some, lost some) against mediocre/bad teams since Big East play has started.

Butler is Butler, but the Bulldogs haven’t reached the second weekend under Chris Holtmann yet.

21. Indiana +6500 (MLPPR: NR)

Two Weeks Ago: “Highly Overvalued” +4000 (MLPPR: 26)

Their season has gone awry with a flurry of injuries and there were some questions before the injuries started. At this point, the biggest battle for them will just be making the field.

21. Michigan State +6500 (MLPPR: NR)

Two Weeks Ago: “Highly Overvalued” +5000 (MLPPR: NR)

It’s still a no until you see major improvement offensively.

Image result for richard pitino

Irrelevant At This Point

26. Marquette +10000 (MLPPR: NR)

Really good offense, very bad defense.

29. Syracuse +12500 (MLPPR: NR)

Haven’t won more than two in a row since November, so I’d say there’s some questions about them winning six in a row in March. Their max is probably five (in the NIT).

29. USC +12500 (MLPPR: NR)

Hopefully they just give us another compelling 8/9 game this year.

31. Michigan +15000 (MLPPR: NR)

They’re basically Marquette without the Villanova win.

31. Minnesota +15000 (MLPPR: NR)

It was all so promising until they lost five straight. Can’t believe that happened under Richie Pitino.

31. Virginia Tech +15000 (MLPPR: NR)

Meh.

36. NC State +25000 (MLPPR: NR)

They’ll be formidable in the NIT.

39. Miami (FL) +30000 (MLPPR: NR)

Actually not bad.

 

 

 

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