BOSTON COLLEGE (+6) over Virginia Tech
Who knows where BC is at mentally, but it is senior day and you’d expect them to at least play hard. They can shoot on the Hokies, which they did the first meeting, specifically Chatman. Tough spot for VT. They’re coming off a huge (near) buzzer-beating win over Clemson at home and this game is sandwiched between that and meetings next week with Miami and Wake at home. Big difference in conference records between the two teams, but efficiency numbers suggest the line should only by a couple.
Oregon (-7.5) over STANFORD
Stanford is 0-10 in these KenPom Tier A games and they’ve only been within double digits one time. And I don’t think any of those teams are better than Oregon. The Cardinal are so one-dimensional offensively because they can’t shoot. The line should probably be closer to double what it is.
MICHIGAN (+1) over Purdue
The Wolverines are playing their best defense of the year lately and the type of length their interior guys have has been problematic for Purdue’s big guys. With the way Derrick Walton has played recently, he might have a big day against the Boiler backcourt, which still has some struggles guarding guys off the dribble. That’s not necessarily Walton’s game, but he’s capable. It would only be fitting of this Big Ten season for Purdue to drop this game when they’re in the driver’s seat to win the title.
SAINT LOUIS (+2) over St. Joseph’s
The Hawks are in a landslide with both Kimble and Newkirk out now. The Billikens have been fairly decent at home lately.
GEORGIA (-12) over LSU
Maten is out, but the Bulldogs survived Alabama without him and you have to take every opportunity down the stretch here to bet against LSU.
Nevada (-7) over UNLV
Speaking of teams to bet against, UNLV has been coming apart at the seams ever since they lost three straight games by a combined 8 points. Since, they’ve been blown out four times and lost at home to lowly San Jose State. One of those blowouts was in Reno by 27, a game in which the Pack scored 104 points.
COLORADO ST. (-2.5) over San Diego St.
in a dead heat with Nevada for the MW race and it should be a raucous environment in Moby with the former kings of the league coming to town. The Aztecs looked horrible the other night against Fresno and really haven’t looked all that good since they whooped Nevada at home a couple weeks ago. I’m picturing the Aztecs shooting themselves out of this one.
UC DAVIS (-3.5) over Long Beach St.
No part of me thinks the Beach can go up to Davis and win this game, which means they probably will.
GONZAGA (-19.5) over BYU
Probably just going to take the Zags to cover every game from now until the end of the season. Their efficiency spreads in WCC play are unprecedented (not a fact supported claim, but it’s hard to imagine anyone doing better than a +40.1).
Season: 132-115-1 (53.5%)