Month: April 2017

2017 NFL Draft Prop Bets

The NFL Draft is back and bigger than ever and that means a few things: it’s Kiper, McShay, and Mayock SZN, it’s time to spend three days watching hundreds of 21-23 year olds have zero choice over their place of employment in their chosen profession, and it’s also time for prop bets.

I love the NFL draft. I love any non-military related draft if I’m being honest. I spent more time watching the WNBA draft a couple weeks ago than I did watching actual women’s college basketball all of last season. What can I say? I’m a sucker for watching someone’s dream come true in real time.

I’m also a sucker for watching Roger Goodell be a creepy, ginger weirdo.

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Last year I wrote this same blog. It went okay, ending up +1.55.

In case you don’t click the link, I’ll have you know that my first bet was having Laremy Tunsil go in the top 4.

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If I were a hack, I’d tell you that bet quickly went up in smoke.

This year the draft is outdoors because apparently this event hasn’t gotten ridiculous enough. Not to mention, it’s being held in Philly with all of those animals in attendance.

Should be fun.

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Deshaun Watson – Under 12.5 Pick (+110)

Of the teams with top 12 picks, you could conceivably see nine of them drafting a QB, some more likely than others. Two of those 12 picks are held by the Browns.

Trubisky is the somewhat heavy favorite to be the first QB drafted, but it’s far from a slam dunk and obviously there’s a good chance both of them go early.

With the high priority placed on the position, you have to feel like Watson or Trubisky could get picked at any time early in the first round as long as it’s not the Titans, Bengals, or Panthers. Wouldn’t be surprising at all to see a team move up to draft one of these guys either.

The best thing you can ask for if you’ve got this Watson ticket is Trubisky going in the first three picks. That’ll create some urgency and force teams to make a quick decision on Watson.

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Dalvin Cook – Over 26.5 Pick (+165)

I love Dalvin, so this is gonna be tough to pull for, but it seems like he’s been sliding recently. His combine numbers weren’t great and he also hasn’t been helped out by Christian McCaffrey’s rise.

The running back class is one of the deepest of the position groups, it’s pretty low priority, and there’s a thought that Dalvin could drop all the way to the second round.

It didn’t help him that the Raiders signed Beast Mode today.

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Christian McCaffrey – Under 8.5 Pick (+155)

Essentially it’s “Will the Panthers take McCaffrey with the 8th pick?” I spent 45 seconds looking at mock drafts and every single one of them had the Panthers drafting him.

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John Ross – Over 18.5 Pick (+100)

John Ross is absolutely electric, but WR isn’t a pressing need for a lot of teams and he’s probably #3 in the WR group behind Mike Williams and Corey Davis. On top of that, McCaffrey is a bit of a combo with his ability to play in the slot.

You can never count out a team to reach a bit on Ross because of his 4.22 40 speed, but it’s happened less since Al Davis died.

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Jabrill Peppers – 1st Round Pick (+150)

I know there’s a lot of questions about his position, if he’s really actually good at anything, and things of that nature, but I have a hard time seeing him fall out of the first round.

Picks 21-24 is probably the sweet spot for him as the picks stand now. If he’s not picked in that range, it might be time to start worrying.

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Solomon Thomas – #2 Overall Pick (+175)

Right now, it’s the 49ers in this spot. Who’s calling the shots now? John Lynch.

Lynch hasn’t spent any time in a front office before, so I have a hard time seeing him really being active making a big trade here. I’m not sure he’s comfortable enough yet to go for that.

From there, the 49ers need basically everything, so I’m guessing a guy who played safety is going to be more worried about the defense, especially due to the fact that this draft is stronger on that side of the ball when you’re looking at the top guys.

And where did John Lynch go to school? Stanford. Soloman Thomas? Stanford.

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Jamal Adams – #3 Overall Pick (+300)

The Bears have sucked for a while now at safety, although they suck most places on defense, so they could go anywhere on this side of the ball.

What could throw a real wrench in either of these plans is if someone trades up for Trubisky. Either team could take QB themselves, but it doesn’t seem like that’ll be the play. But once again, if someone takes Trubisky this early, it’s only good news for the Watson play.

Another wrench? Adams going second and Thomas going third, which would be a real freaking bummer, I gotta tell ya.

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Alabama Players Selected in First Round – Over 4.5 (-140) – 2u

It’s a lot of juice to give up, but I have no idea how this isn’t going to happen.

Jonathan Allen, OJ Howard, and Marlon Humphrey are absolute locks. Reuben Foster is a 99% lock, with the only hitch being the slightest chance that playing the “do you know who I am?” game with the piss-cup lady at the combine turned everybody away. Cam Robinson is probably the least first-round worthy, but still very first-round worthy and he’s the best OT in a weak OT class, which is a high priority position in the league.

 

 

2017 Masters Picks and Props

I had to come out of golf gambling blog retirement for the best tournament of the year. It was also my most profitable last year (+17.68), so it’d feel like a missed opportunity.

Let’s all try to get laid.

Picks: Individual Finishes

Rory McIlroy (Top 5: +180 / Win: +850)

If it’s possible for Rory to go under the radar, it seems like he has the last couple times here. This year, the focus seems to be on DJ and Spieth. Last year, it was Spieth and Jason day. Rory has finished in the top 7 of has last two stroke play events. He needs the Masters win for his career slam and it seems inevitable to happen. He hasn’t missed a cut here since 2010 and has three straight top 10 finishes. The conditions aren’t supposed to be perfect with the rain coming down Wednesday, which plays right into Rory’s hands.

Hideki Matsuyama (Top 5: +450 / Win: +2200)

For a stretch there last fall and winter, Hideki was playing like the best in the world. He’s since cooled off quite a bit lately, but he hasn’t really ripped up the tournaments before the Masters either of the last two years and he’s still notched back-to-back top 10 finishes here at Augusta. For a guy who hits it long, plays well at the course, and has shown his peak is as good as anyone, this is a very enticing price, regardless of his form heading in.

Justin Rose (Top 5: +600 / Win: +3000)

Let’s copy and paste from last year:

He’s played the Masters ten times and never missed the weekend. He’s finished in the top-25 eight times, including two top-5s. Last year he finished a career best second. He’s won a major before. His last four stroke play events on tour have resulted in the top-17. His game fits the course well.

He finished T10 last year. His form is about the same heading into this one.

Paul Casey (Top 5: +850 / Win: +4000)

How about another copy and paste job?

Casey’s made the weekend six times in nine tries at the Masters, including three top-10s. One of those was last year when he finished T-6 even after a rough Saturday (69-68-74-68). His last two stroke play events have resulted in top-10s. He’s not a great scrambler, but that’s okay because he’s top-10 on Tour in GIR.

He finished T4 last year. Form isn’t quite as sharp heading in this year, but it’s certainly not bad.

Lee Westwood (Top 10: +725 / Top 5: +1800)

I’ll save the C&P’s here and just tell you that I think you’re certifiably insane not to have money on Lee Westwood in some form or fashion when he rolls into Augusta National. I don’t care that he got cut in Houston. He did last year, too.

Bill Haas (Top 10: +800 / Top 5: +1800)

Billy has been like Westwood-lite at the Masters. He hasn’t finished in the top 10, but he’s Steady Eddy with seven straight cuts made, including four straight top 25’s. He’s also much less experienced on the course and is due to have a big weekend here one of these years. He hasn’t missed a cut on tour this year and recently finished third at the match play event.

J.B. Holmes (Top 10: +1000 / Top 5: +2500)

I’ll buy low on J.B. He’s only played here three times, making the cut twice, but he finished T4 here last year. I’ll be honest, no top 10’s for J.B. this year after having six of those bad boys last season. But I’m still gonna take him. Although he doesn’t have those banner top 10’s, it’s not like he’s playing terrible golf. He MC’d in Houston, but he’s gone top 35 in his other seven stroke play events with a couple top 12’s in there. He’s a long-ball hitter and the weaknesses in his game (approaches, putting) have seen an uptick this year, despite that not really showing up in improved finishes.

Charley Hoffman (Top 20: +400 / Top 10: +1050)

The resumes obviously get a little weaker down here, but Charley is 3-for-3 making the weekend here with a top 10 finish in 2015 to his name. Quite frankly, his stats for the year aren’t the most encouraging, but he’s a guy with four career tour wins and he’s played well lately. His last four stroke play events: T2, MC, T4 and a T29 last weekend in Houston when he did most of his damage on the weekend.

Soren Kjeldsen (Top 20: +500 / Top 10: +1400)

You might remember Soren from last year as the guy Twitter was making fun of because it looks like he has a fake blonde wig popping out of the top of his visor. He then dunked on everyone by finishing T7. It’s his first year with a tour card. Things didn’t start off hot in 2017 with four straight MC’s. However, he went T37, T32, and T27 in stroke play events since then and then made the quarters of match play, including a win over Rory.

Brendan Steele (Top 20: +650 / Top 10: +1700)

Not much course experience with his only appearance coming in 2012 when he missed the cut. However, he’s a great player from tee-to-green and is in really good form for the price. He hasn’t missed a cut all year, won a tournament, and has three top 10’s and six top 20’s. It’d be a stunner if he was in real contention Sunday, but his consistency this year makes him a good bet to at least make the weekend.

Prop Bets

Winning Margin: Playoff (+300)

I’ll play it every year until they day I die. The only reason to root against a playoff is if you bought a ticket on the clubhouse leader to win, otherwise you have a big dump in your pants. It’s happened five times in the past 14 years.

Hole in One Round 4 (+200)

Last year I played the Hole in One on Hole 16 at +175. It’s +125 this year, likely due to the fact that three guys aced it last year. So why the Sunday play this year? Because all three of those hole-outs on 16 last year happened on Sunday.

Top Senior Player: Fred Couples (+275)

There’s nine of them, but only four are probably really in the running for this one. The favorite is Steve Stricker at +150. The other two would be Bernhard Langer and Vijay Singh. I despise those two so they’re already out. If you’d like something more scientific, do your own damn research.

Freddy got cut at Augusta last year, but he rattled off five straight top 20s before that. His year on the Champions tour so far this year: 2, T6, Win, T4. Stricker has had a good year as well, but he hasn’t been quite as good as Couples at the Masters, recently or historically.

Top Australasian Player: Marc Leishman (+400)

Six guys, only three real contenders. The other two: Jason Day (even) and Adam Scott (+175). Obviously both of those guys are very good at golf. It’s difficult knowing what to expect from Day. He’s had his mother’s health issues to worry about off the course. Thankfully that appears to be in a better place now, but I don’t know that it’s instantly going to help his game out in a big way. He has just one top 10 this year.

Scott’s had a pretty solid season so far, but he just missed the cut in Houston and since winning the Masters in 2013, he’s gradually dropped each year in the standings and has only broken 70 twice.

Leishman doesn’t have a ton of success at Augusta, going 1 for 4 in making the cut, but that one was a T4 in 2013. He’s having a great year, though. He’s played nine events, made eight cuts, and finished top 25 in seven of those, including a win a couple weeks ago. He’s third in strokes gained: putting, a great scrambler, and hits it plenty long enough for the course (31st in driving distance).

Top Debutant: Tyrrell Hatton (+500)

Quite a few options here. Jon Rahm is the obvious favorite, but Hatton has been very consistent for months now. He’s finished in the top 25 in his last 11 events. Pretty good, imo.

Matchups

Spieth (+110) over D. Johnson

As I’m writing this, it’s still available and the news about DJ’s back has already broken. Probably would’ve taken it either way. Spieth is great here.

Jason Day (even) over Jon Rahm

I’ve explained my doubts about Day, but he’s still one of the best players in the world. Jon Rahm is hot in the streets these days, but it’s his first time. There have been guys that have torn it up in their first outing at Augusta (Day is one of them), but I’ll bet on the experienced guy who also happens to still be the better golfer when they’re at their best.