Month: September 2017

Season Total Tracker: After Week 4


TCU (over 7.5) beat Oklahoma State (over 9, 1*) 44-31

(TCU 4-0; OSU 3-1)


I gotta be honest, I was afraid the Frogs might get blown out.

I’m now wondering what the spread will be when they play Bama in the natty.  Could be double digits.


Vanderbilt (under 6) loses to Alabama (over 11, 2*) 59-0

(Vandy 3-1; Bama 4-0)

I obviously counted this as a loss when trying to figure out Vandy’s record this year, so it’s really not that big of a deal that they did in fact lose.

On the other hand, here’s to hoping that this total embarrassment at home destroys all that confidence the Dores built up the past few weeks.

Oregon (over 8) loses to Arizona State (under 5, 1*) 37-35

(Oregon 3-1; ASU 2-2)

Buddy, this was not good. This was the kind of loss that would force the Ducks to run the table at home and take one on the road against UW, UCLA, or Stanford. That’s the bad news.

The good news is that it’s not clear if UCLA or Stanford is any good. Not to mention their stadiums get about as raucous as a funeral. It’s not time to panic, but the sphincter is getting tighter.


Houston (over 8) loses to Texas Tech (under 5) 27-24

(Houston 2-1; Tech 3-0)

To recap:

  • This game hurts the Houston season win total bet
  • This game hurts the Texas Tech season win total bet
  • I made Houston -6 my best bet of the week
  • I put Houston in a money line parlay

Other than that, this game had zero impact on my gambling bankroll. Thanks for the five (5) turnovers, fellas!

Ohio (over 7.5) beats Eastern Michigan (under 4.5, 1*) 27-20

(Ohio 3-1; EMU 2-1)

I hate to jinx things, but the next four games on the schedule for the Bobcats: @UMass, CMU, @Bowling Green, Kent State. Could be a lot easier than I thought.

Maryland (over 3.5) loses to UCF (over 7.5, 1*) 38-10

(Maryland 2-1; UCF 2-0)

It’s not the end of the world. UCF is good. However, if you’re looking for an easy Terp win on the schedule, it doesn’t exist. Okay, maybe at Rutgers. Even then, the injuries at QB are concerning.


Florida State (over 10) loses to NC State (over 7.5, 1*) 27-21

(FSU 0-2; NC State 3-1)

Whenever you bet on a team to go 11-1 and they start off 0-2, it’s not great.

Virginia (under 5) beats Boise State (over 8.5, 1*) 42-23

UVA had won like 1 of their last 200 on the road, but of course they go in to Boise and thoroughly dump truck the Broncos. Still gonna be a tough road for the Hoos, but they’re doing too much winning by too many points for my taste.


CFB Picks: Week 5

It was a bloody Saturday. 4-8. Not a lot to say when your top 3 picks fail. I’d like to see Houston play TTU again and maybe not turn the ball over 5 times, but that’s not possible. I’d like to see USA try to stop Idaho from scoring a TD with 1:30 on the clock and 61 yards to go again, but that’s also not possible.

What is possible is that I officially cancel the parlay/teaser picks. I don’t like doing them. They’re losers. We’re all better off for it.

We are on to Week 5.


10* TENNESSEE (+7.5) over Georgia

First off, these two teams have played a one-possession game for six straight years. Maybe I’m wrong here, but I think a week ago this game would’ve been close to even. We’re still trying to figure out where everyone fits in the grand scheme of things. I think Georgia is a very good team, but I also think they played as well as they can play against MSU last week, who probably peaked two weeks ago.

On the other hand UT looked terrible against UMass on Saturday. I thought the Vols would roll them, but on second thought, it’s not at all surprising that they would put together a lackluster performance. They were facing a juiceless, terrible team right between games with Florida (a devastating loss) and Georgia.

I think the game really hinges on Quinten Dormady…which is admittedly kind of scary.

9* SMU (-18.5) over UConn

UConn is just bad at football and they haven’t been able to recapture that Edsall magic just yet. They weren’t able to stick with lowly ECU in a shootout at home, how are they gonna come close against a sneaky, kinda good SMU team on the road?

8* VIRGINIA TECH-Clemson under 52

They’re averaging a combined 82 points, but only giving up a combined 23 points per game. I’m of the belief that the defenses tend to win out in these situations.

7* ILLINOIS (+7) over Nebraska

I think it’s just time to accept that the 2017 Nebraska Cornhuskers football team isn’t any good, like at all. They’ve struggled to beat Arkansas State and Rutgers at home. They lost to NIU at home. They got roasted by Oregon in the first half and then the Ducks almost choked the game back to them. Tanner Lee stinks. Mike Riley stinks. Nebraska stinks.

Illinois might stink, though.

6* KENTUCKY (-13.5) over Eastern Michigan

The problem here is if the Kentucky offense can generate enough points. I’m not worried about the Cats having a hangover from last week, mainly because EMU has the same concern after their home loss to Ohio in OT. EMU plays gross football that allows them to keep a lot of games close, but they’re not actually good and physically they’re way outmatched in this one.

5* Miami (OH) (+24) over NOTRE DAME

This is the least sexy opponent on the Notre Dame schedule this year, which means they have a great chance to lose it outright. Miami shouldn’t be taken all that lightly and they tend to play low possession games where one or two plays can swing a game dramatically.

But the real reason I like this: Chuck Martin (Miami’s HC) was a long-time assistant on Brian Kelly’s staff, both at ND and Grand Valley. Kelly is an asshole through and through, but I don’t think even he would show up a long-time assistant. I’m basing this on pure conjecture, but I’m guessing Kelly scheduled this game to help Chuck out with exposure for his program and I don’t think he’s going to embarrass the Redhawks if he can help it.

4* LOUISIANA TECH (-13.5) over South Alabama

Both teams coming off tough losses, one of them is a lot better than the other. USA just fired their OC after the home loss to Idaho.

3* Marshall (+4.5) over CINCINNATI

I’m gonna keep milking the Marshall train for all it’s worth. Aside from liking the Herd in general, it’s a good spot for them. They’re coming off a bye week after playing three games that should have given them a lot of confidence. Meanwhile, the Bearcats just played Navy, which is never great for the health of a team.

2* Indiana (+17) over PENN STATE

Similar line of thinking here. Hoosiers are fresh off a bye after a solid first three weeks. Nittany Lions are fresh off a slobberknocker in Iowa City.

1* Nevada (+10.5) over FRESNO STATE

The power rankings have seemed to like Fresno for “only” losing to Washington and Alabama by a combined 63 points. Maybe they’re right, but I don’t think it’s any reason they should be giving 10.5 here. Nevada is off to a rough start under their new coaching staff, but they had similar expectations to the Bulldogs heading into the season. I don’t think their respective performances against top 20 and FCS teams is enough to tell you reality is this far from expectations.

Not Actually Betting, But Sides I’d Take With A Hypothetical Gun To My Head

KANSAS STATE (-15.5) over Baylor

Washington (-26.5) over OREGON STATE

Miami (-4.5) over DUKE

WAZZU (+3.5) over USC

UTEP (+24) over ARMY

SOUTHERN MISS (-8.5) over North Texas

TULSA (+4.5) over Navy

Coastal Carolina (+11) over ULM

Troy (+19) over LSU

NMSU (+16.5) over ARKANSAS

UTAH STATE (+3.5) over BYU

Picks W-L: 19-22-1 (46.3%)
Confidence Points: 101 (of 235)

Season Total Tracker: After Week 3


TCU (over 7.5) beats SMU (under 5, 1*) 56-36

(TCU 3-0; SMU 2-1)

It was an unnerving start with SMU taking a 16-7 lead into the second quarter, but the Frogs pulled it together to avoid what would’ve been a disastrous loss and managed to still cover in the process.

Big 12 play starts now and it starts with maybe the toughest game possible: at Oklahoma State. However, I’d say the conference slate may be a little easier than you would’ve thought before the season. Outside of the two Oklahoma schools, there’s not another team currently in the top 25. Frogs just need to go 5-4 in the league to cash the ticket.


Vanderbilt (under 6) beats Kansas State (under 8, 1*) 14-7

(Vandy 3-0; K-State 2-1)

I think I’ve just gotta start rooting for the push. It would be a big win at this point. The next three games are daunting for the Dores (Bama, @ Florida, Georgia), which is followed up by what will be two tough road games. But after that the three game stretch of WKU, UK, and Mizzou all at home makes for some very winnable games. UK might be good, but the other two have been big disappointments.

Oregon (over 8) beats Wyoming (under 7.5, 1*) 49-13

(Oregon 3-0; Wyoming 1-2)

In Laramie, too. Outgained the Cowboys 558-183. Held former big-time NFL prospect Josh Allen to 10-25 passing for 66 yards. Jim Leavitt’s presence as DC has gone even better than expected.


Notre Dame (over 8) beats Boston College (over 4) 49-20

(ND 2-1; BC 1-2)

It was an encouraging response for the Irish after the Georgia disappointment at home. It’s not exactly cause for celebration yet, though. This was a game they had to have just to stay in the hunt.

As for BC, at least they scored 20 points? They have to beat CMU next week or we’re cooked.

Ohio (over 7.5) beats Kansas (over 3, 1*) 42-30

(Ohio 2-1; KU 1-2)

It wasn’t really that close. The Bobcats had control from the start. Both of their QBs played well. It’s sad (for Kansas) that you expected Ohio to win this game, but it was important that the Bobcats at least split with the Jayhawks and Purdue.

South Carolina (over 5.5) loses to Kentucky (under 7, 1*) 23-13

(USC 2-1; UK 3-0)

Yikes. There’s still four wins out there for the Cocks, but it just got a little tougher.


Florida (over 8.5) beats Tennessee (under 7.5, 1*) 26-20

(UF 1-1; Tenn 2-1)

It was hard to watch, man.

Mississippi State (under 5.5) beats LSU (under 9, 1*) 37-7

(MSU 3-0; LSU 2-1)

I’m for sure losing this one. BYU, UK, UMass, and Ole Miss still at home.

Nebraska (under 7) loses to NIU (over 6, 1*) 21-17

(Nebraska 1-2; NIU 2-1)

Special shoutout to Mike Riley. The Huskers now have to go 6-3 in league play just to push. They are in the Big Ten West, but they have to play Ohio State and Penn State from the East.

Purdue (over 2.5) beats Missouri (under 6.5, 1*) 35-3

(Purdue 2-1; Mizzou 1-2)

My only regret is not putting more on both. Purdue just needs one more win and it’s over. Missouri STINKS.


Memphis (under 8.5) beats UCLA (over 7.5) 48-45

(Memphis 2-0; UCLA 2-1)

Jim Mora and Josh Rosen are a perfect fit together. They do just enough to make you believe and then they completely screw the pooch. Memphis might hit the over only playing 11 games this year, although they still have road games with UCF, Houston, and Tulsa and Navy at home won’t be a walk in the park.

Charlotte (under 4) loses to NC A&T 35-31

(Charlotte 0-3)

In the picks this week, I wrote about why this isn’t really all that bad of a loss, but it’s still a missed opportunity. Love the 49ers this week, though.

SDSU (over 9.5) beats Stanford (over 8.5, 2*) 20-17

(SDSU 3-0; Stanford 1-2)

Things are looking bleak for that Cardinal pick, but never count out David Shaw’s ability to win 9 games. Obviously, it was a huge win for the Aztecs, who are just a machine at this point. Their toughest road game left is this week at Air Force. If they win, I’m making the executive decision to put them on 12-0 watch.

CFB Picks: Week 4

5-4-1 last week, pushing the Texas Tech game. 27 (out of 47) in the confidence point rankings. The parlays and teasers continue to be a disaster, but also a reminder of why I stopped playing them.  I couldn’t narrow it down to 10 this week, so you get two extra picks free of charge, but don’t be afraid to donate on Venmo @mlparlays.


12* HOUSTON (-6) over Texas Tech

Going in to last week, I thought the Red Raiders might have turned a small corner with their defense and it looked like that may end up being the case as the game with Arizona State went on. They were up 18 points on three separate occasions. Then, the old TT defense was back, they let ASU tie it late in the game and they ended up giving up 500 yards to a team that’s really not that good.

I’m not sure how much we know about the Cougar offense at this point in the post-Greg Ward and Tom Herman era, but we do know that Kyle Allen will dink-and-dunk all over the place against a defense like TT’s. He’s completed a nation’s best of 84.3% of his passes. Pretty good.

What I know for sure is that UH is not gonna be giving up a 50-burger to the Red Raiders. They’ve given up 19 points through two games and have some NFL talent on that side of the ball. I’m just not seeing a path to victory for a Tech team that tends to really struggle away from Lubbock.

11* CHARLOTTE (+3.5) over Georgia State

You may be wondering why anyone would bother even looking at a matchup between two of the five worst teams in the FBS. The answer: it’s true that both of these teams are bad, but one of them is playing at home and that team is getting 3.5 big ones.

I’ll start with Georgia State. They lost at home to Tennessee State as 15-point favorites to start the season. They managed a whopping 10 points in the process. I’m not here to disparage TSU, but it’s a mediocre to slightly above average FCS program. The only other game for the Panthers was a 56-0 loss to Penn State. That’s expected, but that’s all the 49ers have played right now and I’m not sensing a ton of confidence off those two games.

Listen, Charlotte is a hard sell here. They’re not great. However, they did hang around with Eastern Michigan on the road, they at least managed to score (IN THE FIRST QUARTER) on Kansas State, and they were driving to take the lead late on NC A&T last week before a regrettable pick-six ended the rally. And, yeah, I know NC A&T, but the Aggies win 9 or 10 games every year and actually beat Kent State as well last year.

It’s a game of suck, for sure. I wouldn’t watch it if I could, but the 49ers are playing at home and I think they’ve at least had something to feel good about so far this season.

10* SOUTH ALABAMA (-4) over Idaho

I wasn’t alone in thinking Idaho was due for a dropoff this year after the flukiest season of all-time, the real question is how severe it would be. They opened by beating Sac State in what appears to be the most boring football game ever, excluding every NFL game played this season.

And for those who maybe don’t pay attention to the lower levels, you probably heard that UNLV was on the wrong side of the biggest upset ever in Week 1 by losing to Wagner? Well, Week 2 they went to Idaho and SMASHED the Vandals 44-16, piling up 550 yards along the way.

Idaho played better last week at Western Michigan (still lost), but in the words of Bill “Broken Record” Simmons, are we sure they’re good? There’s no real proof to support the Broncos yet.

As for the team I’m actually betting on here, heading into the season I liked USA to make a bowl this year. They were tuned up pretty good by Ole Miss and Oklahoma State the first two weeks, but at least they covered the first one and “hung” with the Pokes just as well as Pitt and Tulsa did, so that’s something?

I guess the concern would be that QB Cole Garvin’s status is up in the air, but I’m not sure it really matters that much. Backup Dallas Davis started 10 games last year and Garvin’s not what anyone would deem close to “irreplaceable”. He didn’t play in the Jags 45-0 win over Alabama A&M last week. But if it’s important to you that he plays, I’ve got good news: he’s looking for a cure.

Jags are locked in.

9* PURDUE-Michigan under 52

I’ve spent a lot of time and effort now talking about lower-tier C-USA and Sun Belt teams and I’ve gotta tell you, I’m gassed.

Luckily, you should probably already know about Michigan’s struggles on offense. They can’t finish drives, they just lost a starting WR, and their QB is still a poor man’s John Navarre. For all the (deserved) hype Jeff Brohm has gotten, Boiler DC Nick Holt might be the real star of the show. Mizzou had to really struggle to even gain 200 yards of total offense. The problem here might be their lack of a pass rush and that allowing the more athletic UM skill players to run free. But of course poor man’s John Navarre still has to throw it, so that’s tricky.

Purdue’s offense has been better than expected given their lack of returning WRs and their makeshift O-Line. However, I could see both of those issues rearing their ugly heads against an elite defense. The Boilers were able to carve up Mizzou with standard runs and a TON of borderline extended handoffs that were considered passes. That won’t work as well against all the speed on the Wolverine D.

8* TEXAS STATE (+14) over UTSA

UTSA is well-coached, really improved since Frank Wilson took over, and they had a nice win over a very bad Baylor team, but now we’re making them two touchdown favorites on the road all of a sudden?

TSU has their own little youth movement goin’ on in San Marcos. For starters, they got a win Week 1. Week 2, they lose at Colorado 37-3, but the score was far from indicative of how that game went. Turnovers killed the Bobcats in the third quarter, but they certainly didn’t get rolled. Last week they were within one yard of taking heavy Sun Belt favorite App State to OT. They outgained the Mountaineers by more than 100 yards.

7* Ohio (+2.5) over EASTERN MICHIGAN

EMU has had a nice start to the season, punctuated by their win at Rutgers…but here’s the thing: Rutgers still sucks.

I thought the Eagles had a pretty fluky year last year and have doubted them from the start. I’ve liked Ohio. I don’t think the Purdue loss is going to end up looking that bad for them and they rebounded from it by pasting Kansas.

It’s gonna be a low-scoring game, but I think the Bobcats will be able to run the ball with more consistency and they have a better ability to make plays on offense. I also like the fact that EMU beat them last year. Ohio’s always been the better program and I think they’ll have a little extra motivation to make sure the Eagles regress back to the mean.

6* KANSAS-West Virginia under 68.5

By far the best defense Kansas will have played to this point in the season. They’ve been better offensively so far, but I’d expect that to die down against the Mountaineers. First road game for WVU and I’d like to see how well their offense travels.

5* CAL (+17) over USC

The Trojans are coming off two huge wins at home over Stanford and Texas. They’re going away from the Coliseum for the first time this season and it’s a night game in Berkeley in front of what should be a great crowd. The Bears have already won at UNC and taken down Ole Miss at home. They have a defense now, thanks to new HC Justin Wilcox.

4* TCU (+13) over OKLAHOMA STATE

I like OSU and they’ve obviously been awesome, but they’ve also played three teams who are probably not going to turn out to be very good. TCU’s the first team they’ve played that has anything close to a defense and it’s a pretty good one. I think the line’s begging you to take the Pokes.

3* MICHIGAN STATE-Notre Dame under 54

Originally thought about taking MSU here until I really started looking at it. I don’t see the path for a lot of points. For starters, it’s a Michigan State game. All they want to do is run. On the other side, all Notre Dame might be able to do is run.

2* LOUISVILLE-Kent State over 56.5

I think Bobby Petrino is going to try and score as many points as possible after the Cardinals got embarrassed at Clemson, just to try and get the confidence level back up. And it’s not like Kent State will have many answers defensively. I think you’re going to get something out of the Flashes in terms of scoring. I don’t really think Louisville’s defense is anything to write home about and they haven’t pitched a shutout since September 2013. And in that game, the Cardinals scored 72 points.

1* Toledo (+13.5) over MIAMI (FL)

Toledo can score with anybody and at this point I think you’d have to consider them a heavy favorite to win the MAC. There’s a lot of question marks with Miami right now. Week 1 is Week 1, but they didn’t exactly light up Bethune Cookman. Also, Week 1 was three weeks ago and it’s the last time the Canes played, due to Irma. I’m not sure what to expect from them, but I’m inclined to take the side that’s been scoring a ton of points, winning football games, and in a rhythm.

Money Line Parlay of the Week

Nebraska, MTSU, Houston (+120)

Nebraska burned me here last week, so call it a double down if you will. If Mike Riley loses to NIU and Rutgers on back-to-back weeks at home, I’d suggest he leave Lincoln before the locals find him. Things are going poorly for MTSU right now, but Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in college football.

Teaser of the Week

Boise (-6), South Carolina (-3), Michigan State (+10.5) — (+190)

Boise gets Virginia at home on a Friday night. I think the Broncos are past their hangover week post-Wazzu and they roll UVA. Speaking of teams burning me last weekend, I had South Carolina tied up in both the parlay and teaser last week. I’m just gonna stick them here this week. Surely they can beat a LT team that got blasted by Mississippi St. at home, right? RIGHT?!

Not Actually Betting, But Sides I’d Take With A Hypothetical Gun To My Head

APPALACHIAN STATE (+4.5) over Wake Forest

Arkansas State (+6) over SMU

TENNESSEE (-26) over UMass

Washington (-10) over COLORADO

FLORIDA STATE (-10.5) over NC State

IOWA (+13) over Penn State

TROY (-15) over Akron

CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-2) over Miami (OH)

SOUTH CAROLINA (-8) over Louisiana Tech

BUFFALO (-3) over Florida Atlantic

Picks W-L: 15-14-1 (51.7%)
Confidence Points: 76 (of 157)
Parlays: 0-3 (-300)
Teasers: 0-3 (-300)

Season Total Tracker: After Week 2


TCU (over 7.5) beats Arkansas (under 6.5, 1*) 28-7

I didn’t have big expectations for Arkansas heading into the season, but either way, a road win against an SEC team is never easy. But I appreciated the Frog D thoroughly dominating the Hog O and it was never a sweat.

HOWEVAH, one thing I was counting on this year was Kenny Hill being better at quarterback. It’s only two games, but…he still kinda sucks. The running game has been fruitful, but they still don’t have a go-to receiver. It’s hard to complain too much about a team that’s up 91-7 on the season and has another blowout looming, but still.


Oregon (over 8) beats Nebraska (under 7, 2*) 42-35

I was ready to cash the ticket when the Ducks went into half 42-14. Pop the champagne, light the stogies, this puppy is already over. All I have to do now is hope they win the natty and cash that +10500 ticket.

Losing the second half 21-0 and nearly blowing the game entirely was less fun.

But a win’s a win and the show goes on. The offense still put up 1,000 yards. The defense still looks a hell of a lot better than last year. We’re still in the soft part of the schedule.

Vandy (under 6) beats Alabama A&M 42-0

Whatever. You expect that.

But if they beat K-State, I might start panicking a little bit.


Georgia (over 8.5) beats Notre Dame (over 8) 20-19

Georgia is right on pace for 9 or 10 wins. Notre Dame loses a close game. Brian Kelly is being an unnecessary asshole. Pretty much par for the course.

If Notre Dame doesn’t beat BC this weekend, it’s over.

Central Michigan (over 6.5) beats Kansas (over 3, 1*) 45-27

I’d be lying if I said there wasn’t some real concern in the MLP household after it took the Chips 3 OTs to take care of Rhode Island at home. The same Rhode Island that has gone 16-74 since 2009.

But we are so back in Mount Pleasant. Shane Morris is throwing for 467 and 5 tuddies. We’ve got a vulnerable Syracuse team coming up this weekend.

Houston (over 8) beats Arizona (over 5.5, 1*) 19-16

The Cougs now have to go 9-2 in order to cash out due to the UTSA game being cancelled, so this is a nice place to start. The offense still looks like it can rack up the yards without Tom Herman, at least. Defense only gave up 16 points.

Illinois (under 3.5) beats Western Kentucky (under 9.5, 1*)

Seems preposterous…but is Illinois good? Could be our first loser of the season.


Georgia Southern (over 5) loses to New Hampshire 22-12

I thought that Tyson Summers going away from the option in his first year last year was the problem. It appears now that maybe Tyson Summers is the problem.

MTSU (over 7) beats Syracuse (under 4.5, 1*) 30-23

After dropping game one in ugly fashion to Vandy at home, this is a big one. The Stockstill-James combo was back in full swing. This week will be tough at Minnesota, but after that it’s four of the worst teams in college football.

Ohio State (over 11) loses to Oklahoma (under 9.5, 1*) 31-16

This was unfortunate. Am I worried? No. The push is still gonna happen. Urban Meyer was put on this Earth to win football games at a minimum of a 92% clip.


Baylor (over 7.5) loses to UTSA (over 6.5) 17-10

Nobody likes a guy who can’t laugh at himself and the Baylor over will go down as one of the worst predictions of all-time.


Louisville (over 9.5) beats UNC (under 7) 47-35

I’m going to miss Lamar Jackson so much.

San Diego St. (over 9.5) beats Arizona State (under 5) 30-20

The Aztecs are a well-oiled machine.


CFB Picks: Week 3

Great start to the season so far if you’re looking to be an Average Joe. Both weeks have ended at 5-5. This week was a little better in terms of confidence points at least, grabbing 29 (out of 55). I should probably add the disclaimer that I’ve always been terrible with grading out the confidence/unit size thing.


10* WASHINGTON STATE (-18.5) over Oregon State

It wasn’t a thing of beauty, but the Cougs grinded one out over Boise despite a “constipated” offense. I would assume Luke Falk can go, but it didn’t appear to matter very much whether it was him or Hilinski running the show.

It also doesn’t matter because Oregon State is atrocious. They’re also especially bad against the pass, giving up 10.5 yards per attempt, which is “good” enough for 113th best in the country.

9* SOUTH CAROLINA (-6.5) over Kentucky

At this point, you’d have to consider South Carolina a legitimate contender to win the SEC East. UK hasn’t been all that impressive in wins over Southern Miss and EKU. Jake Bentley has given the Cocks their first formidable offense in a while and I don’t think UK has the firepower to keep up on the road.


8* TEXAS TECH (-7) over Arizona State

It’s hard to tell much off of one game, but the Red Raiders shut down a normally potent Eastern Washington team in Week 1. They’ve also had two weeks to prepare for the Aztecs, who were just soundly beat at home by SDSU and didn’t have high hopes heading into the season. It’ll likely be another massive shootout between these two, but I think TT is the more likely of the two to slow the other down.

7* CAL (+3.5) over Ole Miss

There were a lot of questions about Ole Miss heading into the year. What have we learned? Not much besides they’re not a total trainwreck, unlike Baylor who had similar questions. They’ve won relatively easy over two poor opponents, but nothing to signify the Rebels are anything above mediocre.

Cal opened the season with a major win over UNC on the road. They might’ve had a bit of a hangover performance with Weber State, but I’m not too worried about that. Their pass defense was great against the Heels and that will serve them well against the Ole Miss attack. Things should be lively in Berkeley with a 7:30 local time kickoff and a resurgence in the program.

6* SAN DIEGO STATE (+10) over Stanford

I’m not selling on Stanford yet, but SDSU continues to be a good team this year and it’s a tough team for the Cardinal to play coming off of USC week. The Aztec front has kept up their strong run defense, giving up just 1.5 ypc against Arizona State. Meanwhile, Stanford hasn’t been as strong through two games, giving up over 5 ypc. Both teams are run heavy, so those numbers will obviously have a big impact.

5* UTEP (+20) over Arizona

Does UTEP suck? Yes, they do. However, I’m still pretty sure Arizona isn’t good and they’ve been vulnerable in games like these in the past. Similar to the preposterous-ness that was Oregon State being favored over anybody last week, it doesn’t make sense for Arizona to be laying nearly three touchdowns on the road.


Once again, the run game will be crucial in this one. And once again, the team I’m on has been much better than the opponent AGAINST the run. The Bulldogs have looked good early, but it’s come against schedule fluffers.

3* TCU (-18) over SMU

SMU ended up beating North Texas by quite a bit, but they actually were matched by the Mean Green in total yardage. I don’t see the Stangs having any shot at shutting the TCU offense down. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have given up 7 points through two games.

2* UCF (+2) over Georgia Tech    CANCELLED

I’d feel better about it, but it’s hard to gauge how much the hurricane is going to affect preparation/mindset.

2* Illinois (+17) over SOUTH FLORIDA

I’m not sure this game is even going to happen. But if it does, USF has been pretty disappointing thus far in the season with lackluster performances against bad football teams. Meanwhile, the Illini are fresh off a dominating defensive performance against Western Kentucky, holding the Hilltoppers to 7 points.

1* Clemson (-3) over LOUISVILLE

Lamar Jackson is the ultimate X-factor, but the defensive front for Clemson is incredible and there’s some holes on that Cardinal O-line, mainly at center. Kelly Bryant has shown a lot of pose and capability through two weeks. I know the game was close last year, but I don’t see 5 Tiger turnovers happening again.

Money Line Parlay of the Week

Nebraska, Western Kentucky, South Carolina (+120)

Huskers have been a little shaky to start the year, but I don’t think NIU can score enough to stick with them. WKU was embarrassed at Illinois, but the same was true for Louisiana Tech at home against Mississippi State. I’ve got more faith in the Hilltopper D.

Teaser of the Week

South Carolina (pick), Texas Tech (-0.5), Cal (+10) – (+165)

Only 6.5 this week.

Not Actually Betting, But Sides I’d Take With A Hypothetical Gun To My Head

New Mexico (+16) over BOISE STATE

Coastal Carolina (-2) over UAB

Clemson (-3) over LOUISVILLE

Central Michigan (+10.5) over SYRACUSE

WESTERN KENTUCKY (-7) over Louisiana Tech

OHIO STATE (-29.5) over Army

WYOMING (+14) over Oregon

Purdue (+8) over MISSOURI


Picks W-L: 10-10 (50.0%)
Confidence Points: 49 (of 110)
Parlays: 0-2 (-200)
Teasers: 0-2 (-200)

Season Total Tracker: After Week 1

Last year I picked the Power 5 totals before the season – after spending an embarrassing amount of hours doing research and writing them – and then never spoke of them again. That was pretty dumb.

This year, I’m gonna pick a few of the outcomes from the recent week of games that affected the totals the most. This will obviously have a slant toward my picks – given that they’re broken down by the confidence I placed in them – but I’ll still touch on major results for the 112 teams I didn’t bet on.


TCU (over 7.5) beats Jackson State 63-0

The Frogs are the only one in this group, so I guess get used to a lot of Kenny Trill talk. Not much to say this week. Anytime you’ve got heavy stakes on a team winning at least 8 games, I guess it’s nice to see that they can roll over a team that went 3-8 in the SWAC last year.


Vandy (under 6) beats MTSU (over 7, 2*) 28-6

This was always a toss-up game and one that Vandy was favored in, so it’s not time to panic yet. It was a little unsettling how dominant their defense was against a pretty good offense, however. Also not great: Kyle Shurmur being very competent at QB.

Oregon (over 8) beats Southern Utah 77-21

Similar to the TCU result, but at least SUU is a decent FCS program. Maybe the biggest news out of the week is that Vegas respects Oregon enough to have them giving 14 points to Nebraska this weekend. Other good news: upcoming road opponents Wyoming and Arizona State both looked worse than what was probably expected.


Maryland (over 3.5) beats Texas (over 8, 1*) 51-41


Boston College (over 4) beats Northern Illinois (over 6, 1*) 23-20

It wasn’t the prettiest thing, but it’s a win on the road against a not-terrible team. Still 4 to 6 games left on the schedule they’ll have at least a 50ish% chance of winning.

South Carolina (over 5.5) beats NC State (over 7.5, 1*) 35-28

Big one for the Gamecocks. The +100000 national championship bid is still alive.


Florida (over 8.5) loses to Michigan (under 9, 1*) 33-17

It wasn’t a huge deal that they lost, but it was the fact their offense once again looks absolutely terrible and that there’s no real QB again.

Florida State (over 10) loses to Alabama (over 11) 24-7

I didn’t expect them to win, but reallllllly coulda done without Francois being lost for the season.

Texas A&M (over 7) loses to UCLA (over 7.5, 1*) 45-44

Blowing a 34-point lead is never an ideal way to start the season. Never ideal.


Baylor (over 7.5) loses to Liberty 48-45

LIBERTY! Credit to me for having the guts to bet on a program in complete shambles.

Georgia Tech (under 6.5) loses to Tennessee (under 7.5) 42-41

I guess in a head-to-head under match here, it’s always better to have the team with a higher total win. I think they both might suck.

Cal (under 3.5) beats UNC (under 7) 35-30

This, on the other hand, was not good.



CFB Picks: Week 2


10* NAVY (-13.5) over Tulane

Navy looked like the same old Navy in Week 1 against FAU on the road. Tulane opened up strong with a 43-14 win over Grambling State at home, but I’m gonna need to see a bit more evidence that the Green Wave will be any better this year. Navy rolls at home.

9* WEST VIRGINIA (-24) over East Carolina

James Madison isn’t your average FCS opponent, but still, they waxed ECU by 20 last week. That further confirmed that the Pirates are indeed going to be garbage this year. WVU lost a tight one to Virginia Tech, but the 592 yards of total offense is a good sign for this week against the porous ECU defense.

8* ARKANSAS STATE (+14.5) over Miami (FL)  CANCELLED

Miami didn’t exactly light things up against Bethune Cookman. They’ll have to be A LOT sharper to cover the spread this week. ASU was closing in on a potential upset over Nebraska in Lincoln to start the year. The Red Wolves have a had a good program for a number of years now and they’ll be confident with the Canes coming to town.

8* TULSA-UL-Lafayette over 64

Tried to get cute and take a Tulsa under last week. Never again. For their part, the Ragin’ Cajuns had a 99-point total against SE Louisiana.

7* KANSAS-Central Michigan under 56

The Jayhawk offense is improved, but that’s saying very little. It took CMU three overtimes to put up 30 on a terrible Rhode Island team.

6* UTSA (+17) over BAYLOR

Baylor clearly still has a lot to get figured out and UTSA was a much-improved team a year ago. The Roadrunners had their Week 1 game postponed, so they should be rearing to go.

5* Marshall (+24) over NC STATE

I’ll stick again with the Thundering Herd this week. A lot of preseason hype for the Pack, but the loss to South Carolina shows that maybe, just maybe they’re not ready to run the table yet.

4* Stanford (+7) over USC

Not gonna look it up, but it feels like Stanford beats USC every time they play.

3* Western Michigan (+7.5) over MICHIGAN STATE

It appears the Broncos might still be pretty good. MSU handled Bowling Green just fine in the opener, but I’m not sure they have that big of a talent advantage in this one.

2* MICHIGAN (-34) over Cincinnati

The Bearcats didn’t exactly destroy Austin Peay in Luke Fickell’s debut. Feels like Cincy is set up for one of those games where Jim Harbaugh does everything in his power to beat you 100-0.

1* San Diego State (+4) over ARIZONA STATE


Money Line Parlay of the Week

Minnesota, TCU, Ohio State – +365

On the riskier side, but I think it’s wild that anyone can have watched Oregon State’s performances in the first two weeks of the season and think they should be favored over any above average team. I obviously like TCU this season. Feels like there’s no way Lincoln Riley leads a team into Urban Meyer’s house and wins.

Teaser of the Week

Ohio State (-0.5), Notre Dame (+1), Duke (+10.5) — +150

I don’t see Jake Fromm winning his first career start in South Bend. Considered taking Duke outright this week.

Not Actually Betting, But Sides I’d Take With A Hypothetical Gun To My Head

DUKE (+3) over Northwestern

UCONN-USF under 68

UNC-Louisville over 63

UAB (+14) over BALL STATE

ALABAMA-Fresno State under 54

ILLINOIS (+8.5) over Western Kentucky

TCU (-3) over ARKANSAS

Minnesota (ML) over OREGON STATE

Picks W-L: 5-5 (50.0%)
Confidence Points: 20 (of 55)
Parlays: 0-1 (-100)
Teasers: 0-1 (-100)