CFB Picks: Week 3

Great start to the season so far if you’re looking to be an Average Joe. Both weeks have ended at 5-5. This week was a little better in terms of confidence points at least, grabbing 29 (out of 55). I should probably add the disclaimer that I’ve always been terrible with grading out the confidence/unit size thing.

Picks

10* WASHINGTON STATE (-18.5) over Oregon State

It wasn’t a thing of beauty, but the Cougs grinded one out over Boise despite a “constipated” offense. I would assume Luke Falk can go, but it didn’t appear to matter very much whether it was him or Hilinski running the show.

It also doesn’t matter because Oregon State is atrocious. They’re also especially bad against the pass, giving up 10.5 yards per attempt, which is “good” enough for 113th best in the country.

9* SOUTH CAROLINA (-6.5) over Kentucky

At this point, you’d have to consider South Carolina a legitimate contender to win the SEC East. UK hasn’t been all that impressive in wins over Southern Miss and EKU. Jake Bentley has given the Cocks their first formidable offense in a while and I don’t think UK has the firepower to keep up on the road.

 

8* TEXAS TECH (-7) over Arizona State

It’s hard to tell much off of one game, but the Red Raiders shut down a normally potent Eastern Washington team in Week 1. They’ve also had two weeks to prepare for the Aztecs, who were just soundly beat at home by SDSU and didn’t have high hopes heading into the season. It’ll likely be another massive shootout between these two, but I think TT is the more likely of the two to slow the other down.

7* CAL (+3.5) over Ole Miss

There were a lot of questions about Ole Miss heading into the year. What have we learned? Not much besides they’re not a total trainwreck, unlike Baylor who had similar questions. They’ve won relatively easy over two poor opponents, but nothing to signify the Rebels are anything above mediocre.

Cal opened the season with a major win over UNC on the road. They might’ve had a bit of a hangover performance with Weber State, but I’m not too worried about that. Their pass defense was great against the Heels and that will serve them well against the Ole Miss attack. Things should be lively in Berkeley with a 7:30 local time kickoff and a resurgence in the program.

6* SAN DIEGO STATE (+10) over Stanford

I’m not selling on Stanford yet, but SDSU continues to be a good team this year and it’s a tough team for the Cardinal to play coming off of USC week. The Aztec front has kept up their strong run defense, giving up just 1.5 ypc against Arizona State. Meanwhile, Stanford hasn’t been as strong through two games, giving up over 5 ypc. Both teams are run heavy, so those numbers will obviously have a big impact.

5* UTEP (+20) over Arizona

Does UTEP suck? Yes, they do. However, I’m still pretty sure Arizona isn’t good and they’ve been vulnerable in games like these in the past. Similar to the preposterous-ness that was Oregon State being favored over anybody last week, it doesn’t make sense for Arizona to be laying nearly three touchdowns on the road.

4* LSU (-6.5) over MISSISSIPPI STATE

Once again, the run game will be crucial in this one. And once again, the team I’m on has been much better than the opponent AGAINST the run. The Bulldogs have looked good early, but it’s come against schedule fluffers.

3* TCU (-18) over SMU

SMU ended up beating North Texas by quite a bit, but they actually were matched by the Mean Green in total yardage. I don’t see the Stangs having any shot at shutting the TCU offense down. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have given up 7 points through two games.

2* UCF (+2) over Georgia Tech    CANCELLED

I’d feel better about it, but it’s hard to gauge how much the hurricane is going to affect preparation/mindset.

2* Illinois (+17) over SOUTH FLORIDA

I’m not sure this game is even going to happen. But if it does, USF has been pretty disappointing thus far in the season with lackluster performances against bad football teams. Meanwhile, the Illini are fresh off a dominating defensive performance against Western Kentucky, holding the Hilltoppers to 7 points.

1* Clemson (-3) over LOUISVILLE

Lamar Jackson is the ultimate X-factor, but the defensive front for Clemson is incredible and there’s some holes on that Cardinal O-line, mainly at center. Kelly Bryant has shown a lot of pose and capability through two weeks. I know the game was close last year, but I don’t see 5 Tiger turnovers happening again.

Money Line Parlay of the Week

Nebraska, Western Kentucky, South Carolina (+120)

Huskers have been a little shaky to start the year, but I don’t think NIU can score enough to stick with them. WKU was embarrassed at Illinois, but the same was true for Louisiana Tech at home against Mississippi State. I’ve got more faith in the Hilltopper D.

Teaser of the Week

South Carolina (pick), Texas Tech (-0.5), Cal (+10) – (+165)

Only 6.5 this week.

Not Actually Betting, But Sides I’d Take With A Hypothetical Gun To My Head

New Mexico (+16) over BOISE STATE

Coastal Carolina (-2) over UAB

Clemson (-3) over LOUISVILLE

Central Michigan (+10.5) over SYRACUSE

WESTERN KENTUCKY (-7) over Louisiana Tech

OHIO STATE (-29.5) over Army

WYOMING (+14) over Oregon

Purdue (+8) over MISSOURI

 

Picks W-L: 10-10 (50.0%)
Confidence Points: 49 (of 110)
Parlays: 0-2 (-200)
Teasers: 0-2 (-200)

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