Month: October 2017

CFB Picks: Week 8

This is the college football season from hell – in terms of weekly gambling, the rest has been delightful as always – but we’re going to keep chugging along. It’s been excellent fade material, after all.

Picks

Colorado State (-6.5) over NEW MEXICO – 3u

The Rams are clearly the much better team. If there’s a weakness to exploit, it’s the pass defense and the Lobos are obviously a heavy run team, so that becomes less of a concern. CSU has won 7 straight in the series, covering in 6 of those, all as the favorite.

Tulsa (-6) over UCONN – 3u

Another game for UConn that’s set up for a shootout and once again, I don’t think they can outscore the opponent. Hasn’t been a recipe for success for them.

Wake Forest (+7) over GEORGIA TECH – 3u

Apparently Wake takes a week off and everybody forgets they’re good. There’s a lot to like about the Deacs this week. They’re coming off a bye week, which is especially a good thing when you’re preparing for a triple option offense, both schematically and physically. It helps that they’re already one of the better defenses against the run in the country. Conversely, GT is coming off that physical game down in Miami that resulted in a heartbreaking loss.

NOTRE DAME (-3.5) over USC – 3u

USC has been playing with fire a lot and have been lucky to only get burned once so far. The Irish have been much more impressive week-to-week and they’ll take advantage of the Trojans’ carelessness with the ball. Like Wake, I like ND coming off of a bye.

UCLA (-7) over Oregon – 3u

I’ll just keep betting against Oregon.

ARKANSAS STATE (-13) over ULL – 2u

The Red Wolves are starting to show why they were among the favorites to win the Sun Belt this year. They’re pretty comfortable at home. Meanwhile, ULL is a very shaky 3-3.

Iowa (+1.5) over NORTHWESTERN – 2u

To put it simply, I think Iowa is better.

FAU (-3) over North Texas – 2u

North Texas is much improved, but you don’t just come in to Joey Freshwater’s house and steal a W. Especially when he’s got his next job to campaign for pretty soon. FAU’s pass defense should be able to slow down the Mean Green enough to get the W.

Kent State (+20) over OHIO – 2u

Ohio’s been shaky. Kent State has been kind of plucky and broke through with a big win over Miami this past week. Newfound confidence can go a long way in college football.

ARMY (-6) over Temple – 2u

Temple officially sucks.

Michigan (+10) over PENN STATE – 2u

I know the Michigan offense is downright painful to watch right now, but I can’t help but think that defense is at least going to keep them in it Happy Valley. Defense travels and what not.

FLORIDA STATE (-7) over Louisville – 2u

I can’t quit Florida State, even if it was like pulling teeth to get that cover over Duke. The offense has its issues still, but Louisville did just give up 45 at home to BC. That really happened.

Georgia Southern (+7) over UMASS – 2u

Ohhhhh baby, you gotta really love to gamble to bet on this game. Combined record of 0-11. I’m still holding out a sliver of hope that GSU can turn things around a bit. UMass is destined to stink forever.

HOUSTON (-2) over Memphis – 2u

Late add

Leans

Western Kentucky (-9.5) over OLD DOMINION

Marshall (-3) over MTSU

NEVADA (+5.5) over Air Force

GEORGIA STATE (+9.5) over Troy

SMU-Cinci  no line

MIAMI (OH) – Buffalo no line

TOLEDO-Akron no line

BGSU (+13.5) over Northern Illinois

WMU-EMU no line

MICHIGAN STATE (-7) over Indiana

CHARLOTTE (+7) over UAB

ECU (+5.5) over BYU

RUTGERS (+8) over Purdue

DUKE (-8) over Pitt

Syracuse (+14.5) over MIAMI (FL)

Central Michigan (-2.5) over BALL STATE

APP STATE – Coastal no line

WISCONSIN (-24) over Maryalnd

North Carolina (+22) over VIRGINIA TECH

Boston College (+7) over VIRGINIA

Wyoming (+14) over BOISE STATE

TCU (-37.5) over Kansas

UTSA (-21.5) over Rice

NAVY (+7) over UCF

MIZZOU (-14) over Idaho

Kentucky (+10.5) over MISSISSIPPI STATE

TULANE (+11.5) over South Florida

UNLV (-3) over Utah State

Southern Miss (+3) over LOUISIANA TECH

CAL (+1) over Arizona

MINNESOTA (-14.5) over Illinois

ALABAMA (-34) over Tennessee

Oklahoma State (-7) over TEXAS

West Virginia (-10) over BAYLOR

ARKANSAS-Auburn no line

USA-ULM no line

Oklahoma (-12.5) over KANSAS STATE

OLE MISS (+7) over LSU

TEXAS TECH (-5.5) over Iowa State

Arizona State (+10.5) over UTAH

WAZZU (-10.5) over Colorado

Fresno State (+10.5) over SDSU

Week 7: 17-21-2

 

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CFB Picks: Week 7

Another disaster last week. 3-7. Another one on me. We’ve hit a big time slump.

So like any good coach/manager would do, we gotta juggle the lineup. Bench the starters. Put the scrappy walk-on in for the first two minutes of the game just to send a message.

We’re down 40 at halftime? Wrong. It’s 0-0. Let’s just win the second half and build some momentum.

My version of that is scrapping the confidence point game. It never felt right, I just wanted to do something slightly different. But the truth is, I’m a unit guy through and through. So we’re back to the traditional units this week and we’re gonna win the second half.

MIAMI (FL) (-6.5) over Georgia Tech – 3u

There’s some cause for concern after the Canes had that dramatic win over Florida State last week. You worry about the hangover and the injuries that came from that game, but I also have faith in Mark Richt and I think Miami’s focused enough on their bigger goals this season to not overlook Georgia Tech. Mark Walton’s loss hurts, but it’s a deeper position for the Canes and they’ve survived with poor rushing performances from him the past couple weeks.

Tech¬† is off to a decent 3-1 start, but they’ve played a fairly average schedule with their best opponent so far being Tennessee (they lost). I think the Canes will do just fine against the option and virtually give them nothing in the pass game.

In a vacuum, I’d say the line is well short of what it should be, but you do have the hangover effect for Miami. FWIW, Canes won 35-21 in Atlanta last year.

ULL-Texas State under 58 – 3u

This is really all because of Texas State. They haven’t scored more than 14 points against anybody besides Houston Baptist and Monroe and the 27 against Monroe is the fewest anybody’s scored against them.

IOWA STATE-Kansas over 68 – 3u

Kansas is 5-0 on the overs largely due to them giving up a staggering 52 points per game. Iowa State is another team where you have to wonder about the hangover effect after pulling a massive upset over Oklahoma, but if anything I think that’s going to be defensively. You, me, and nine people in a retirement home could hang at least 40 on the Jayhawk D, but if you’re not careful KU is capable of doing the same thing.

KENT STATE (+11.5) over Miami (OH) – 2u

It’s hard to put a lot of faith in Kent State, but both teams are deep on the QB depth chart and that’s a bigger deal for Miami because their starting QB (Gus Ragland) is actually good.

 

AIR FORCE (-7.5) over UNLV – 2u

AFA has had a tough go the last few weeks, but I think this is the perfect spot for them to bust loose. They’ve had 3 of their last 4 on the road and the only home game was a close loss to SDSU. The stats don’t look as good for them when you line them up against UNLV’s, but they’ve played a much tougher schedule so far. The Rebels have been all over the map so far in terms of the consistency of their performance.

UTAH STATE (-2.5) over Wyoming – 2u

I guess I’m just a Utah State guy and I’ll go back to them this week. Wyoming is up to 3-2 now, but they’ve been feasting on some bad teams at home. At best, you could say that the Cowboys and Aggies are at the same level, but I think there’s more there to suggest USU has the edge and they’re only laying 2.5 at home. In case you haven’t been paying attention, Josh Allen still pretty much stinks. He finally had a decent game against Texas State, but they’re the worst team in the FBS.

UTEP (+24) over SOUTHERN MISS – 2u

Let’s see if Mike Price’s mojo magic can result in another close loss for the Miners.

ARKANSAS STATE (-19) over Coastal Carolina – 2u

Coastal hasn’t played a team in the top 100 yet and they’re 1-4. Arkansas State is a good team, that’s only gotten to play one game at home so far this season. It’s another one where the numbers don’t look great when you match the two teams up until you consider that the Red Wolves have been playing a much tougher schedule. I think it’s a perfect opportunity for them to come home and blow out an inferior team.

FRESNO STATE (-2) over New Mexico – 2u

Fresno is better than New Mexico and they’re only favored by 2 over New Mexico. So I’m gonna take Fresno.

TEMPLE (-9.5) over UConn – 2u

The Huskies have been getting murdered by average teams because they can’t stop a nose bleed. Almost as bad as Kansas, defensively. Overall, they’re one of the 5 to 10 worst teams in the FBS. Temple’s not great, but they’ve played two semi-decent games in a row. If it means anything to you, they’ve had one common opponent: ECU. Temple won on the road by 24 and UConn lost at home by 3.

 

Tulane (-13) over FIU – 2u

FIU might be the worst 3-2 team in the history of 3-2 teams. They’ve beat Charlotte, Rice, and Alcorn State by a combined 14 points. That’s two of the five worst teams in the FBS and Alcorn State. Credit for the wins, but they also just lost to depleted MTSU by 20. Meanwhile, the Green Wave is…making waves by having a little renaissance under Willie Fritz.

FLORIDA (-2.5) over Texas A&M – 2u

A&M hasn’t hit the road since that Week 1 meltdown at UCLA and the most impressive thing they did in their month at home was only lose to Alabama by 8 points.

I’ll take the team with maybe the worst uniform of all-time.

Image result for florida gators uniforms

Subtlety isn’t always a bad thing, Gainesville.

 

STANFORD (-10.5) over Oregon – 2u

I was obviously bullish on the Ducks this year, but everything has hit the skids with Justin Herbert out and it’s a very dark time to be an Oregon supporter. Working for Oregon in this game is that their run defense has been excellent and you’re gonna need it to slow down Bryce Love, but they’re gonna have to be damn near perfect because I just don’t see the UO offense able to put many points on the board.

ILLINOIS-Rutgers under 48 – 2u

Two roughly average defenses going against two of the worst offenses in football.

 

Florida State (-6.5) over DUKE – 2u

I will hop right back on the Seminole train, even if they ripped my heart out last weekend. It also helps that Duke did the same thing. I feel like it’s important to once again point out that FSU has played four top 25 teams so far this season. Based on “resume”, you’d be crazy to still call them a top 15 or even 25 team…buuuuuut I think they are.

Duke’s no walk in the park this week either, but James Blackman is getting better every week. The Blue Devils early season wins are starting to lose their luster a bit too. Northwestern, Baylor, and UNC have a combined 3-13 record and those 3 wins are against Nevada, Bowling Green, and Old Dominion. The only team they’ve played close to FSU’s caliber was Miami and they lost by 25 at home.

Michigan (-6.5) over INDIANA – 2u

I’ll be honest, I didn’t have a real opinion on this game, but a guy in my office is a Michigan fan and he was confident they were gonna win by two touchdowns. I’m open to anything right now.

ARIZONA STATE (+17) over Washington – 2u

I don’t like going against Washington, but ASU has played a really tough schedule over the past month and held up pretty well, beating Oregon and hanging with Stanford, Texas Tech, and SDSU. The defense is shaky at best, but they can score enough to hang with the Huskies.

USC (-12.5) over Utah – 1u

I guess it’s just kind of a feel thing. The injury report for the Trojans is basically the size of the roster, but I’d have to think a lot of the guys who sat out last week weren’t a necessity but more due to USC playing a glorified scrimmage with Oregon State.

Utah’s upside just isn’t as high with Troy Williams at QB. Additionally, their numbers look good defensively, but they haven’t played a team like USC that can challenge them with both the run and pass.

ARMY (-4.5) over Eastern Michigan – 1u

I don’t know, I thought EMU stunk in August and I think they stink now. Should be an interesting battle. EMU can’t run, but Army is terrible against the run. Running is the best thing Army does (obviously), but EMU’s strong against the run. I’ll just take the better team, playing at home.

 

MARYLAND (+3) over Northwestern – 1u

Obviously, the Terps have had to resort to playing something by the name of “Bortenschlager” at QB, but I don’t think the defensive numbers are as bad as they might indicate when you consider a few of the offenses they’ve played. And buddy, that Northwestern offense is not very good.

CFB Picks: Week 6

It’s been a slow bleed the last few weeks, which just means we’re due to win big…hopefully.

Picks

10* FLORIDA STATE (+3) over Miami (FL)

I know I’m an idiot, but my brain refuses to believe that Florida State is going to start the season 1-3. I know they lost Francois, but it’s a team loaded with talent and had national championship aspirations. They absolutely have to have this game if they want to achieve any of their goals. They’re playing an instate rival. It’s at home. The NC State loss was ugly, but it’s clear that at least Vegas isn’t respecting winning on the road against a kinda sorta top 25 Wake Forest team.

Meanwhile, Miami is getting a ton of love for winning by 25 at Duke, despite only outgaining the Blue Devils by 60 yards. It was the second straight week that the final score for the Canes ended up looking better than the real story. They beat Toledo by 22 at home, but trailed by 6 at half.

So yeah, I’m gonna take the preseason top 5 team that’s won 7 straight in the series and is getting points at home.

9* Duke (+2.5) over VIRGINIA

At no point, be it preseason or after any of the first four weeks, would Virginia have been favored in this game. I just explained what I believe to be a misleading result for the Blue Devils last week. Virginia got a dumbfounding easy win over Boise State on the blue turf a couple of weeks ago.

But the rest of the resume leans heavily in favor of the Blue Devils. You can see that for yourself.

I think Duke is going to force UVA to be one-dimensional by shutting down the run game and I’ve got an overconfident Cav team scoring about 17 points in this one.

8* UTAH STATE (+8.5) over Colorado State

The Rams have blown out a couple of the worst teams in the country, but overall I thought their September was pretty underwhelming. There’s a lot of holes in that defense and I think the Aggies have a decent chance to win outright.

7* UNLV (+11) over San Diego State

I love the Aztecs, but they’ve been flirting with a loss lately and they have a lot of nicks to guys on defense. UNLV had that extremely embarrasing week 1 loss, but they’ve responded really well since then. The Rebel offense is top 10 in the country in both yards per carry and yards per pass attempt.

6* TEXAS (-3.5) over Kansas State

Texas football is not back, but they’re slowly inching their way there. I’m not sure what you’re hanging your hat on if you’re a K-State supporter. They’ve blown out an FCS team and the worst FBS team, they had a ho-hum W over winless Baylor, and they lost to Vanderbilt and only scored 7 points in the process.

Texas isn’t a solved puzzle, but it’s a game between two good defenses and they’re the only team in the equation that can run and pass offensively.

5* MICHIGAN (-10.5) over Michigan State

How is Michigan State going to score?

4* Marshall (-15) over CHARLOTTE

I put my faith in Charlotte a couple of weeks ago to cover against Georgia State a couple of weeks ago and how did they repay me? They lost 28-0 at home…to Georgia State. They’re the worst team in the FBS.

The Marshall gravy train has not hit the skids yet, so we’re gonna stay on it.

3* NEVADA (+4) over Hawaii

Sure, I’ll double down on Nevada. Not everybody has the guts to bet twice on one of the worst teams in football, but I do. Reasoning? Hawaii stinks, too.

2* BOSTON COLLEGE (+16.5) over Virginia Tech

I’m not exactly sure how BC is going to score points, but at least their pass defense is sick and they’re playing at home?

1* VANDY (+17.5) over Georgia

Georgia has destroyed their last two opponents, Vandy has gotten cooked their last two games…which means you have to take Vandy.

Leans

UAB (+12.5) over Louisiana Tech

FAU (-3.5) over OLD DOMINION

AUBURN (-21) over Ole Miss

Wazzu (+2.5) over OREGON

MTSU (-10) over FIU

Southern Miss (+13) over UTSA

UTAH (+6.5) over Stanford

Arkansas State (-7) over GEORGIA SOUTHERN

NC STATE (+4) over Louisville

BUFFALO (+7) over Western Michigan

OHIO (-12) over Central Michigan

NMSU (+11) over APP STATE

Wake Forest (+21.5) over CLEMSON

CINCINNATI (+17) over UCF

EAST CAROLINA (+3) over Temple

Picks W-L: 23-28-1 (45.1%)
Confidence Points: 125 (of 290)