CFB Picks: Week 7

Another disaster last week. 3-7. Another one on me. We’ve hit a big time slump.

So like any good coach/manager would do, we gotta juggle the lineup. Bench the starters. Put the scrappy walk-on in for the first two minutes of the game just to send a message.

We’re down 40 at halftime? Wrong. It’s 0-0. Let’s just win the second half and build some momentum.

My version of that is scrapping the confidence point game. It never felt right, I just wanted to do something slightly different. But the truth is, I’m a unit guy through and through. So we’re back to the traditional units this week and we’re gonna win the second half.

MIAMI (FL) (-6.5) over Georgia Tech – 3u

There’s some cause for concern after the Canes had that dramatic win over Florida State last week. You worry about the hangover and the injuries that came from that game, but I also have faith in Mark Richt and I think Miami’s focused enough on their bigger goals this season to not overlook Georgia Tech. Mark Walton’s loss hurts, but it’s a deeper position for the Canes and they’ve survived with poor rushing performances from him the past couple weeks.

Tech  is off to a decent 3-1 start, but they’ve played a fairly average schedule with their best opponent so far being Tennessee (they lost). I think the Canes will do just fine against the option and virtually give them nothing in the pass game.

In a vacuum, I’d say the line is well short of what it should be, but you do have the hangover effect for Miami. FWIW, Canes won 35-21 in Atlanta last year.

ULL-Texas State under 58 – 3u

This is really all because of Texas State. They haven’t scored more than 14 points against anybody besides Houston Baptist and Monroe and the 27 against Monroe is the fewest anybody’s scored against them.

IOWA STATE-Kansas over 68 – 3u

Kansas is 5-0 on the overs largely due to them giving up a staggering 52 points per game. Iowa State is another team where you have to wonder about the hangover effect after pulling a massive upset over Oklahoma, but if anything I think that’s going to be defensively. You, me, and nine people in a retirement home could hang at least 40 on the Jayhawk D, but if you’re not careful KU is capable of doing the same thing.

KENT STATE (+11.5) over Miami (OH) – 2u

It’s hard to put a lot of faith in Kent State, but both teams are deep on the QB depth chart and that’s a bigger deal for Miami because their starting QB (Gus Ragland) is actually good.

 

AIR FORCE (-7.5) over UNLV – 2u

AFA has had a tough go the last few weeks, but I think this is the perfect spot for them to bust loose. They’ve had 3 of their last 4 on the road and the only home game was a close loss to SDSU. The stats don’t look as good for them when you line them up against UNLV’s, but they’ve played a much tougher schedule so far. The Rebels have been all over the map so far in terms of the consistency of their performance.

UTAH STATE (-2.5) over Wyoming – 2u

I guess I’m just a Utah State guy and I’ll go back to them this week. Wyoming is up to 3-2 now, but they’ve been feasting on some bad teams at home. At best, you could say that the Cowboys and Aggies are at the same level, but I think there’s more there to suggest USU has the edge and they’re only laying 2.5 at home. In case you haven’t been paying attention, Josh Allen still pretty much stinks. He finally had a decent game against Texas State, but they’re the worst team in the FBS.

UTEP (+24) over SOUTHERN MISS – 2u

Let’s see if Mike Price’s mojo magic can result in another close loss for the Miners.

ARKANSAS STATE (-19) over Coastal Carolina – 2u

Coastal hasn’t played a team in the top 100 yet and they’re 1-4. Arkansas State is a good team, that’s only gotten to play one game at home so far this season. It’s another one where the numbers don’t look great when you match the two teams up until you consider that the Red Wolves have been playing a much tougher schedule. I think it’s a perfect opportunity for them to come home and blow out an inferior team.

FRESNO STATE (-2) over New Mexico – 2u

Fresno is better than New Mexico and they’re only favored by 2 over New Mexico. So I’m gonna take Fresno.

TEMPLE (-9.5) over UConn – 2u

The Huskies have been getting murdered by average teams because they can’t stop a nose bleed. Almost as bad as Kansas, defensively. Overall, they’re one of the 5 to 10 worst teams in the FBS. Temple’s not great, but they’ve played two semi-decent games in a row. If it means anything to you, they’ve had one common opponent: ECU. Temple won on the road by 24 and UConn lost at home by 3.

 

Tulane (-13) over FIU – 2u

FIU might be the worst 3-2 team in the history of 3-2 teams. They’ve beat Charlotte, Rice, and Alcorn State by a combined 14 points. That’s two of the five worst teams in the FBS and Alcorn State. Credit for the wins, but they also just lost to depleted MTSU by 20. Meanwhile, the Green Wave is…making waves by having a little renaissance under Willie Fritz.

FLORIDA (-2.5) over Texas A&M – 2u

A&M hasn’t hit the road since that Week 1 meltdown at UCLA and the most impressive thing they did in their month at home was only lose to Alabama by 8 points.

I’ll take the team with maybe the worst uniform of all-time.

Image result for florida gators uniforms

Subtlety isn’t always a bad thing, Gainesville.

 

STANFORD (-10.5) over Oregon – 2u

I was obviously bullish on the Ducks this year, but everything has hit the skids with Justin Herbert out and it’s a very dark time to be an Oregon supporter. Working for Oregon in this game is that their run defense has been excellent and you’re gonna need it to slow down Bryce Love, but they’re gonna have to be damn near perfect because I just don’t see the UO offense able to put many points on the board.

ILLINOIS-Rutgers under 48 – 2u

Two roughly average defenses going against two of the worst offenses in football.

 

Florida State (-6.5) over DUKE – 2u

I will hop right back on the Seminole train, even if they ripped my heart out last weekend. It also helps that Duke did the same thing. I feel like it’s important to once again point out that FSU has played four top 25 teams so far this season. Based on “resume”, you’d be crazy to still call them a top 15 or even 25 team…buuuuuut I think they are.

Duke’s no walk in the park this week either, but James Blackman is getting better every week. The Blue Devils early season wins are starting to lose their luster a bit too. Northwestern, Baylor, and UNC have a combined 3-13 record and those 3 wins are against Nevada, Bowling Green, and Old Dominion. The only team they’ve played close to FSU’s caliber was Miami and they lost by 25 at home.

Michigan (-6.5) over INDIANA – 2u

I’ll be honest, I didn’t have a real opinion on this game, but a guy in my office is a Michigan fan and he was confident they were gonna win by two touchdowns. I’m open to anything right now.

ARIZONA STATE (+17) over Washington – 2u

I don’t like going against Washington, but ASU has played a really tough schedule over the past month and held up pretty well, beating Oregon and hanging with Stanford, Texas Tech, and SDSU. The defense is shaky at best, but they can score enough to hang with the Huskies.

USC (-12.5) over Utah – 1u

I guess it’s just kind of a feel thing. The injury report for the Trojans is basically the size of the roster, but I’d have to think a lot of the guys who sat out last week weren’t a necessity but more due to USC playing a glorified scrimmage with Oregon State.

Utah’s upside just isn’t as high with Troy Williams at QB. Additionally, their numbers look good defensively, but they haven’t played a team like USC that can challenge them with both the run and pass.

ARMY (-4.5) over Eastern Michigan – 1u

I don’t know, I thought EMU stunk in August and I think they stink now. Should be an interesting battle. EMU can’t run, but Army is terrible against the run. Running is the best thing Army does (obviously), but EMU’s strong against the run. I’ll just take the better team, playing at home.

 

MARYLAND (+3) over Northwestern – 1u

Obviously, the Terps have had to resort to playing something by the name of “Bortenschlager” at QB, but I don’t think the defensive numbers are as bad as they might indicate when you consider a few of the offenses they’ve played. And buddy, that Northwestern offense is not very good.

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