Month: April 2018

2018 Masters Picks and Props

I’ll admit it: might have gotten a little crazy with the number of guys I’m playing this year. All plays are in the parenthesis and you can bet all of the longshots have a little sprinkled on them to win the whole damn show. What a treat this weekend is going to be.

Picks: Individual Finishes

Dustin Johnson (Top 5: +250 / To Win: +1200)

DJ isn’t as hot as he was coming into Augusta last year (3 straight wins), but he’s only finished outside the Top 20 in one stroke play event in the past 9 months. Remember, he headed into last year as the favorite at +500. His last two outings at the Masters he finished T6 and T4. He’s still the #1 ranked player in the world.

Justin Rose (Top 5: +300 / To Win: +1500)

If you don’t bet on Justin Rose at the Masters, you’re an idiot. He hasn’t finished outside the Top 25 in his last seven outings here and he’s finished in the Top 10 four times in that stretch. He’s also got five Top 10s in seven events played this season. Don’t be an idiot.

Jason Day (Top 5: +400 / To Win: +2000)

He’s been a little shaky lately, but he did win a tournament a couple months ago. Also, he might have the most consistent career of this generation’s top players when it comes to major competition. He’s played in 29 and finished in the Top 10 nearly half the time.

Paul Casey (Top 5: +500 / To Win: +2800)

Three straight Top 10s at Augusta for Paul. The odds keep dropping every year, but I’ll keep taking him. He’s second on tour tee-to-green, which is a key number in this tournament. He won the Valspar a month ago and has seven Top 20s in eight events this season.

Matt Kuchar (Top 5: +1000 / To Win: +5000)

Kuch hasn’t lit the world on fire this season, but he plays as much as anybody and he might be hitting his stride at the right time, finishing in the Top 10 the past couple weeks. He’s compiled four Top 10s, including three Top 5s, in his last six outings at the Masters. He went T4, T16, 2nd, T9 in the majors last year.

Tommy Fleetwood (Top 10: +350 / Top 5: +800)

Tommy doesn’t have much of a track record on ANGC – one MC – but he’s 5th on tour tee-to-green. He’s up to 12th now in the world rankings. He got a win early in the season and has added two other Top 5s since then and hasn’t finished a tournament outside the Top 40. Shades of Danny Willett in 2016 here.

Adam Scott (Top 10: +600 / Top 5: +1300)

Scott hasn’t done anything really noteworthy this season, but these are pretty good odds for a former champion that has four Top 10s in his last seven trips to Augusta. He hasn’t missed a cut here since ’09. Scott was in a somewhat similar form last year, missing the cut in Houston the week before, but he still finished T9 with a pair of 69s on Friday and Saturday.

Brian Harman (Top 10: +650 / Top 5: +1400)

First good news about Harman: he’s a lefty. They’ve won 6 of the last 15 Masters. He’s only played here once and he missed the cut, but it’s impossible to ignore a guy at these numbers that has seven Top 10 finishes in 11 events this season. He did have a T2 in the US Open last year and a T13 in the PGA Championship.

Kevin Chappell (Top 20: +400 / Top 10: +900)

Chappell’s got a bit of a back issue, but I’ll still take a flyer. He ranks 8th tee-to-green, finished T7 here last year, and has been rock solid for four months now.

Daniel Berger (Top 20: +400 / Top 10: +900)

He’s gone T10 and T27 in his first two Masters runs. He’s made six Top 25s in 10 events this year. That’s not the most impressive number in the world, but remember that this field is about half the size of a typical field. I like his consistency.

Cameron Smith (Top 20: +500 / Top 10: +1150)

He’s 1-for-1 in made cuts here. He’s got four Top 10s on the season. He’s decent tee-to-green, but among the best in the world around the green. That could elevate him around the top of the leaderboard this week if he strikes it well.

Ryan Moore (Top 20: +500 / Top 10: +1150)

Form is tough to pinpoint with Moore. He’s had three Top 10s and two missed cuts in his past six events. More importantly with Moore: he’s finished in the Top 15 of the Masters four times in nine tries.

Adam Hadwin (Top 20: +600 / Top 10: +1350)

Hasn’t missed a cut since August and hasn’t missed a Top 20 in two months. He’s 21st tee-to-green on tour and he was T36 in his Masters debut last year.

Prop Bets

Hole in One – Round 4 +137

I’ve wrote about this every year. If there is going to be a Hole-in-One, it’s going to be on 16, and it’s going to be on Sunday. Two years ago, there was three of them in the matter of like 45 minutes.

Top Former Winner – Phil Mickelson +450

This is just my way to bet on Phil. I don’t love his odds to win the tournament, but here he really only has to win a competition of, realistically, about eight guys.

Will there be a playoff? – Yes +300

There’s absolutely no way to handicap this, it’s a total roll of the dice. However, it’s been a winner three of the past six years and it’s fun. Root for fun.

Top Amateur Player – Doug Ghim +330

Joaquin Niemann is the favorite here and the top ranked amateur in the world, but I like the cut of Ghim’s jib. He’s currently 4th in the WAGR and finished runner-up in the 2017 US Amateur. But why I really like him: he’s 8-0 as a member of Team USA in international competition.

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