I’m picking every over/under regular season win total for all 130 schools in college football. I’ll try to keep the odds/injuries/suspensions as current as possible, but I’m doing this in pieces, so it is what it is.
1* through 5* based on confidence. I’ll be betting anything 3* and higher.
Last year was pretty successful, to say the least. Results:
3*: 10-2-3 (+24.1*)
4*: 1-1 (+0.0*)
5*: 1-0 (+5.0*)
I’ll give my best bet for the conference champion based on perceived value.
Northern Illinois – over 6.5 (-115) – 1*
The Husky D has a lot to like with a couple of talented Power 5 transfers, Sutton Smith (14 sacks last year), and one of the best D-Lines in the Group of 5. They’ve got a good chance to rack up wins in the MAC, but the non-con is brutal: @ Iowa, Utah, @ Florida State, and @ BYU.
Toledo – over 8 (-110) – 2*
The loss of Logan Woodside is obvious, but my take is…it’s not that big of a deal. They’ve got plenty of QB talent waiting in the wings and their WRs are among the best in the country. They’ll pile up points like they always do. The Rockets haven’t missed a bowl game since 2009. Jason Candle will have a big job next year.
Western Michigan – under 6.5 (-115) – 1*
The Broncos had a ton of injuries last year and went 6-6. The jury is still out on whether Tim Lester can maintain the success PJ Fleck created. Their schedule is a total wildcard.
Eastern Michigan – over 5.5 (-125) – 1*
It’s another wildcard schedule once again for the Eagles. You might remember them playing nine games decided by a single possession last year, losing six of them (all in a row). The law of averages says they’ll end up on the happier side of that this year.
Ball State – under 4 (-125) – 1*
The Cards should be healthier this year, but they’re probably only better than two teams on the schedule. Big year for HC Mike Neu, who’s 1-15 in MAC games so far.
Central Michigan – over 4.5 (+120) – 3*
Last year I made a 3* bet on the Chips to go over 6.5 at +145 and they started 3-4. Did we panic? No, not for a second. You know why? Because John Bonamego wins football games. The Chips finished 5-0 (underdog in three of them) and we took the over going away.
It’s insulting that some are predicting the Chips to finish last in the West. Even beneath those bums in Muncie. I don’t care that they only have 10 starters coming back. Bonamego is back. Johnathan Ward is back. Mike Danna and Nate Brisson-Fast are going to be studs on the D-Line. Tony Poljan is a 6’7″ renaissance man of offense at QB. They’re going 6-0 at home. #FireUpChips
Ohio – over 8.5 (+110) – 2*
Eight starters coming back from Frank Solich’s best offense by far in his ridiculously consistent tenure in Athens. The defense has only four coming back, but they’ve given up between 22-28 PPG for years now. They don’t face a team better than them on the schedule…but there’s enough that are close.
Miami (OH) – under 6.5 (-130) – 1*
This should be Chuck Martin’s best team, but the Redhawks have shown a penchant for losing close games in his tenure.
Buffalo – over 6.5 (-140) – 3*
Love the Bulls this year, but hate the juice and it’s a tough road schedule. I’m optimistic about every team they play on the road except for Bowling Green. They return eight starters from an offense that made a huge jump last year. Defensively, they’ve got Khalil Hodge back at LB, who might be the the best defender in the MAC.
Akron – over 4.5 (+130) – 1*
A lot of question marks on offense, but a lot coming back from a decent defense last year and should carry them to at least 5-7. The Zips have won at least five since Terry Bowden’s first year, which was Year Zero in Fleck lingo.
Bowling Green – under 4.5 (-120) – 1*
The offense should take a step this year, but the defense is still garbage and it’s a lot to ask Carl Pelini to fix it in a year.
Kent State – under 2.5 (-130) – 1*
The team is terrible, but best of luck to Sean Lewis in his first year. He’s trying to bring Dino Babers’ high octane offense, which tends to take a little while when you have bad players.
BEST BET TO WIN MAC
They have a tough road schedule ahead of them, but if they’re as good as I think they can be, they’ll have a real chance to win the East. There’s no real discernible advantage for them in terms of where games are located against Ohio and Miami, or advantages over those two when it comes to playing the West, or QB advantage because they’re basically all equal in those categories. Which means they’re not at a disadvantage in any of those areas and yet you can get them at a much better price.