I’m picking every over/under regular season win total for all 130 schools in college football. I’ll try to keep the odds/injuries/suspensions as current as possible, but I’m doing this in pieces, so it is what it is.
1* through 5* based on confidence. I’ll be betting anything 3* and higher.
Last year was pretty successful, to say the least. Results:
3*: 10-2-3 (+24.1*)
4*: 1-1 (+0.0*)
5*: 1-0 (+5.0*)
I’ll give my best bet for the conference champion based on perceived value.
SUN BELT EAST
Appalachian State – over 8.5 (even) – 1*
The Mountaineers have to replace their four-year starting QB and their DC among several other things, but they’re still one of the best in the league and the schedule features minimal challenges.
Troy – over 7.5 (-140) – 1*
The Trojans face similar challenges as App State, but the schedule is a little tougher.
Georgia State – under 4.5 (-115) – 1*
Georgia Southern – over 5.5 (-200) – 1*
Coastal Carolina – over 4 (+105) – 2*
SUN BELT WEST
Arkansas State – over 8.5 (-175) – 2*
Justice Hansen is one of the best QBs in the country and he’s got the WRs to make it the Red Wolves a lethal passing attack. The schedule is set up for big things, but the juice here isn’t worth the squeeze.
UL Monroe – over 5.5 (-140) – 2*
Truly a team with two tales. The offense is tremendous. The defense is atrocious. But both have a lot coming back. Both should at least improve slightly.
UL Lafayette – under 4.5 (-120) – 1*
South Alabama – over 4.5 (+110) – 1*
Texas State – over 3.5 (even) – 1*
BEST BET TO WIN SUN BELT
Georgia Southern +1600
With the top three teams all with some big question marks, it feels like a year where someone else can break through from the middle. I’ll take a stab on GSU for the second straight year.
We’re finally at the end of the road of the team totals. It’s one of my favorite things to do every year, but holy hell does it get exhausting. As you can probably tell, I didn’t put a lot of effort into the Sun Belt. My apologies to the Fun Belt. I can’t wait to watch you.
Before we get to the recap, I ran some numbers from last year out of curiosity. I wanted to see how close the average total number was to a team’s record. For instance, if a team’s total was 7.5 and they win 9, the split would be 1.5.
Not to get bogged down too far, but last year 75 teams had the half-win hook on their total, which means there’s at least a difference of 0.3 on average across all 130 teams. Factoring that in, the average difference between the Vegas total and the actual total is only about 1.3 wins. Only 15% had a difference of more than 2.5. I guess the point of it all is: the majority of these are going to be pretty close. Every win is a big one.
Additionally, last year there were 57 overs, 59 unders, and 14 pushes. So basically even. I don’t keep track of my split between overs and unders until I get through them all, but last year I was at 74 overs and 56 unders. 13 of my 18 actual bets were on overs. Perhaps I’m just becoming a more optimistic person as I age, but in reality I find it a lot easier to identify teams that are being undervalued. And football tends to be a battle of attrition and luck more than anything else. I lost two overs last year – one by a win, the other by half a win – and they were a result of a catastrophic injury at QB for one team and the other team going 0-3 in games decided by 3 points or less.
This year I’m on a remarkably consistent 73 overs and 56 unders. Actual bets: 15 overs and 8 unders. Honestly, it’s probably more teams than I’d like to bet on, but they were all well-researched and the only one I’d probably back off on is Maryland for obvious reasons.
Anyway, here’s all 129 of them this year, including conference winners. National title, playoff, Heisman, etc. picks will be coming soon.
|Sun Belt||Georgia Southern||+1600|