2018 Season Total Tracker: Week 4

You can find the entire list of totals here.

Unless I missed somebody else, I believe Hawaii is the first team to have their season total decided. Congrats to the Bows for hitting the over before September ends.

5*

FAU (over 8.5) loses 56-36 to UCF

(FAU 2-2)

I thought the Owls might have a chance to steal one, but UCF showed why they’re still kings of the Group of 5. A clear difference between the two was at QB. McKenzie Milton is McKenzie Milton and, I’ll be honest, Chris Robison worries me a little bit.

A win at MTSU this week is a must.

4*

East Carolina (under 3.5) loses 20-13 to USF

(ECU 1-2)

It was a loss for ECU, but that defense does look pretty good. USF’s offense isn’t nearly as good as it was a year ago – they also only managed 25 against Illinois – but the Pirates are definitely improved on that side of the ball.

I’ll admit I may have underrated the addition of DC David Blackwell to the staff. Blackwell came over from Jacksonville State, where they’ve had a number of great defenses. I just figured the dysfunction under Scottie Montgomery would outweigh Blackwell’s impact.

This week the Pirates are either playing ODU at the best or worst time. The Monarchs obviously just had a program-changing win over Virginia Tech. They’re either going to be full of confidence and ready to go or they’re still going to be celebrating.

Florida State (over 8) wins 37-19 over Northern Illinois

(FSU 2-2)

I hate this damn team.

Maryland (over 5) wins 42-13 over Minnesota

(Maryland 3-1)

Quite the first four weeks for Maryland. There’s no telling what they’re going to play like. I’d like to say that this win at least clinches a push with Rutgers and Illinois home games still remaining, but they did lose by 21 to Temple at home.

3*

Florida (over 8) wins 47-21 at Tennessee (under 5.5)

(UF 3-1; UT 2-2)

I’m still not really sure if Florida is any good or not, but it seems fairly clear that Tennessee is not. That was the most winnable game for the Vols in this brutal five-game stretch that they have.

Iowa (over 7.5) loses 28-17 to Wisconsin

It’s not a huge loss for the total, but it does make the Big Ten championship darkhorse bet a lot more difficult. But it was all right there for the Hawkeyes at home and they just let it slip away. They have a championship caliber defense, but a cellar dweller caliber offense.

UNC (under 5.5) wins 38-35 over Pitt (over 5)

(UNC 1-2; Pitt 2-2)

A double whammy in poor developments. Even still, I’m not remotely concerned yet with UNC hitting the over.

But I’ll level with you, the Pitt bet is looking a little bleak. I never have any idea what to expect with the Panthers. Narduzzi is a defensive guy and they haven’t developed a decent defense in three-and-a-half years. I’m pretty much just hoping for a push at this point.

Texas (under 8.5) wins 31-16 over TCU

(Texas 3-1)

If we’re in the trust tree, Texas is starting to feel like a 9-3 team to me now.

Buffalo (over 6.5) wins 42-13 over Rutgers

(Buffalo 4-0)

The Bulls are good.

Michigan State (over 8.5) wins 35-21 at Indiana

(MSU 2-1)

I don’t have much to say. It was big.

 

 

2 comments

  1. I just found your blog, great job. I was on CFU vs FAU over the total and that was easy. I took CFU last week and lost a parlay by .5 unbelievable. It’s my fault though I forgot to put in the bet earlier in the week and remembered on Saturday, I caught it live and bet – 22.5 and wouldn’t you know it they won by 22 exactly.

    I also had Duke -4 at home vs VT that lost to ODU and their QB in that game. I guess.Bud Foster happen to Duke? That is the first time Duke has lost for me though so I’m cool with that. Still riding Purdue, the Boilermakers are 5-0 ATS despite being 2-3 SU, though have won 2 in a row SU and ATS their last two games.

    Buffalo Bulls laid an egg too. Guess I thought Army would be down after losing a close one to Oklahoma/

    Maryland is another Big Ten team I have been riding. 400 yards on the ground vs the Golden Gophers cashed in nicely. The clunker vs Temple is a bit bewildering but I’ll let that go.

    Like

    1. Anthony, happy to hear you’re doing well with Purdue! That’s my school, so I hope they can keep it up. I’ve got a season long bet on Maryland as well, so it looks like we’re aligned on a couple fronts. Thanks for reading!

      Like

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