Month: October 2018

2018 CFB Picks: Week 9

Picks

4 Units

ARKANSAS (+2) over Vanderbilt

I considered going five here, but Ke’Shawn Vaughn will be in the backfield for the Dores and he’s the biggest threat of the offense.

On the positive side for Arkansas, they’ll get Ty Storey back this week at QB. His numbers look pretty modest, but Storey was starting to get it going finally. The first few weeks were a game of hot potato at QB for the Hogs. Once Storey was given the job for good, the offense started to come alive.

After mediocre performances against a pair of Top 25 defenses away from home – Auburn and Texas A&M – Storey started to get things rolling at home. Arkansas put up 405 yards (5.7 YPP) and 31 points against Alabama. And no, it wasn’t all garbage time. According to S&P+, that performance was in the 88th percentile of what teams typically do against a defense of Alabama’s caliber.

Against Ole Miss – admittedly a bad defense – the Hogs drive chart looked like this under Storey:

  • Field Goal, 11 plays, 50 yards
  • Touchdown, 7 plays, 78 yards
  • Touchdown, 3 plays, 80 yards
  • Touchdown, 5 plays, 75 yards
  • Field Goal, 9 plays, 52 yards
  • Field Goal, 10 plays, 55 yards
  • Field Goal, 11 plays, 57 yards

Pretty efficient, I’d say. After those seven drives, Storey was knocked out with a concussion and the Hogs went punt, punt, interception and ended up losing the game.

Storey missed last week, as well, and Arkansas could only muster 23 points against Tulsa. They’re a different team when he’s on the field. I think his impact is bigger than the line is giving him credit for.

Arkansas has also been playing better with the increased role of Rakeem Boyd (yes, the guy from Last Chance U). Boyd has 44 carries for 310 yards (7.05 YPC) the last three weeks.

OKLAHOMA STATE (+3) over Texas

I’m still of the opinion that Texas just really isn’t that good. By the wildly outdated AP/Coaches poll math, I understand why they’re #6, but they’re not close to that level in reality, in my opinion.

Oklahoma State is hard to get a read on because they’ve been a roller coaster this year, but I’m expecting their best performance of the season since Week 3 when they rolled Boise State.

The Pokes are coming off a bye – as is Texas – which was preceded by laying an ostrich-sized egg against Kansas State in Manhattan. It was a wretched performance, but I like that it happened heading into the bye week. It gives them double the time to sit in that sewage of a performance and to focus in on getting ready for this game.

And it’s a big one. Texas does have that shiny single digit next to its name and it’s a night kick on homecoming weekend

There’s one thing on the field that really sticks out to me when evaluating this game on the field: big plays. OSU makes a lot of them on offense. They’re the 8th most explosive offense in the country, according to S&P+, and they make them both on the ground and through the air.

The Texas defense ranks 99th in giving up those explosive plays and their offense doesn’t have the ability to match, coming in at 113th in the country. Collin Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey are talented wide receivers, but not necessarily gamebreakers, and the Longhorn RBs seemingly count on their O-Line to get them every inch of their yard totals.

It should be a raucous atmosphere in Stillwater with a desperate team looking for victory against an opponent that generates more buzz than they can backup. If the Pokes can get some of those big plays, things could snowball for Texas.

And yes, I’m making this pick with the anticipation that Sam Ehlinger will play for the Horns, although I wouldn’t expect him to be 100% and he’ll be going against a front seven that gets to the QB a ton. Not sure that health holds up if he’s getting knocked down frequently.

3 Units

CHARLOTTE (+8) over Southern Miss

Trying to get back some of that Charlotte home dog magic again after they came through big against WKU a couple of weeks ago.

The 49ers will be without starting QB Chris Reynolds for the second straight week, but senior Evan Shireffs was solid enough on the road last week, they weren’t a good passing team when Reynolds was healthy to begin with, and they have a run-first identity anyways.

The real reason to like the 49ers is the defense. They’ve been incredible since the bye week a couple of weeks ago, only giving up 400 total yards in the past two games. They’ll be going against a super young offense this week that has managed just 20 points in their two road games this year.

Georgia Tech (+3) over VIRGINIA TECH

I promise there’s a lot more behind it, but sometimes it’s best to put it simply. Obviously, GT is an option team and relies on 77% of their offense to come from running the ball.

Here’s where their opponents have ranked in S&P+ rush defense, rush defense explosiveness, how many total yards the Jackets gained in those games, and how many points they scored.

Opponent Rush D Rank Rush D Explosive Rank GT Yards GT Points
USF 93 43 602 38
Pitt 34 85 386 19
Clemson 1 4 203 21
BGSU 127 107 532 63
Louisville 85 36 554 66
Duke 10 19 354 14
VT 107 130 ? ?

VT had the bye week to prepare, but GT has won three of the last four in the series (all as underdogs) and a bye week doesn’t fix the Hokies’ problems defensively, which has stemmed from trying to replace a ton of personnel.

GT is also coming off a bye and they had things rolling for a few weeks before it was derailed by a backbreaking sequence against Duke where they fumbled on three straight possessions in the second half, Duke converted all three into TDs, and they suddenly found themselves in desperation mode. They should be hungry to get back on the field.

AIR FORCE (+10) over Boise State

Once again, we’ll keep it simple. Air Force runs the option and Boise ranks 123rd in giving up those explosive run plays. The obvious question mark for the Falcons is defending against Brett Rypien, who’s as experienced as you can get at QB and might be even better in road games.

However, I’m comforted by Air Force covering 5 of the last 6 against Boise and winning 3 of those games outright, all of them as underdogs of more than a touchdown.

Further support if you’re an ATS trend guy: Air Force is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as a home dog and they’ve won 6 of those outright. They’ve covered the spread in those games by an average of 14.9 points per game.

SAN JOSE STATE (-1) over UNLV

UNLV is pretty garbage without Armani Rogers. He remains out. SJSU has been knocking on the door of victory for weeks now and this is the perfect opportunity to break through. The only reason this isn’t a five unit play is because you’re still putting faith in one of the worst teams in the FBS, who has won one of their last 18 football games. Go Spartans.

2 Units

Wyoming (+2.5) over COLORADO STATE

Essentially, Colorado State does one thing decent and that’s throw the ball. Wyoming does one thing at a dare-I-say-elite level and that’s defend the pass.

The Cowboys have their issues, but they’re not your every day 2-6 Mountain West team. The pass defense is awesome, they’re respectable on both sides of the run, the only thing they can’t really do is throw, but almost anybody can against the Rams.

Wyoming is 2-6, but understand they’ve played the 28th most difficult schedule in the country. Five of their eight games have come against Top 30 teams. Not only do they win this game, but I’ll take it a step further and say they win out and go bowling.

UCLA (+10) over Utah

I’ll stick with UCLA, who I said a couple weeks ago was gonna go on a run. I didn’t really mention it in the Arkansas section because there were so many things to touch on, but they’re in similar spots. I liked both teams before the year, but figured they’d both struggle early and peak late in the season. That looks like it’s coming to fruition. Both have good coaches who are re-hauling the system. It takes time and now’s the time to ride with them.

Utah has looked unbeatable lately – which is good for my Pac-12 champ future – but this is also a play that there has to be some regression at some point for the Utes. I still think they win here, but it’s a short week for them and they’re going on the road after a huge win at home. Could come down to the wire.

WEST VIRGINIA (-13.5) over Baylor

In theory, West Virginia has a lot bigger games coming up to close out the season. They play Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, and Oklahoma State in November.

But this week feels big. They were terrible two weeks ago against Iowa State and were lucky they were playing Kansas the week before with the way Will Grier was tossing interceptions.

Now they’re coming off a bye, with an extra week to refocus the offense, and they play a team at home that they should roll. The Bears have a vulnerable defense and they’ve only found success as a team because of a weak schedule that’s been made even worse due to opponent injury.

Possible Additions

ARIZONA (+10) over Oregon

Need to know the status of Khalil Tate. Rhett Rodriguez was alright last week against UCLA, but you’d still like to have Tate.

MINNESOTA (+2.5) over Indiana

If Annexstad plays, we’re firing all the way up until Minnesota -3.

North Carolina (+9) over VIRGINIA

I like the UNC side, but probably only if it gets to 10.

YTD: 38-35-2 (-3.2u)

2018 CFB Picks: Week 7

All picks are 2 units except for the first…

Picks

COASTAL CAROLINA (-4.5) over UL-Monroe – 5 Units

I always hate when I love a side this much. I feel like I’m missing something so obvious. I’m scouring the internet looking for a reason the line feels so off.

There’s really only one possible reason the line is less than a touchdown here and that’s the uncertainty of the status on CC’s QB Kilton Anderson. Anderson missed the Troy game with a sprained ankle, but has had an extra week to recover with the bye. And this good news came through on Tuesday:

The other good news is that Anderson’s backup is pretty good. Bryce Carpenter is 27-34 on the year for 300 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT. He’s also carried 22 times for 135 yards. Carpenter can’t match the big plays that Anderson creates with his arm and he takes too many sacks, but obviously those numbers are still pretty impressive and they mostly came against Troy, one of the best teams in the league.

But once again, it looks like Anderson may be able to go.

As far as the number goes, every analytical measure I respect/look at has this line at least at 7.5 and as many 14. Even if you factor in the Anderson injury, I think you’re still looking at CC as the right side. The dropoff from him to Carpenter isn’t that severe.

But numbers are just a piece of the handicap. The biggest reason I really like this game is due to what I guess you’d call the logistical situations of the two teams.

UL-Monroe is playing their fifth road game in six weeks. I repeat: FIVE ROAD GAMES IN SIX WEEKS. They went to Mississippi in Week 2, Texas in Week 3, home for a week, Georgia in Week 5, Mississippi in Week 6, and now head to South Carolina for Week 7.

It really started to show the past couple of weeks. Georgia State beat them like a drum two weeks ago. GSU doesn’t beat anybody like a drum, especially when they’re 7.5 point dogs. Then last week, they were down 63-7 to Ole Miss just five minutes into the second half. Yes, Ole Miss is an SEC team – barely – but ULM was only three touchdown dogs in that one and they were down eight touchdowns 35 minutes into the game.

Coastal has also had a tough stretch with travel recently, only they’ve handled it much, much better. The Chanticleers had to evacuate Conway a few weeks ago when the hurricane hit. They were living out of hotels for three weeks. They couldn’t practice at home, yet they still won two of three games.

Now they’re settled back at home, which they were able to do during the bye week. They should be amped to play at home for just the second time this season. Their only other home performance was a 23-point win over UAB, a game in which they were dogs by nine points.

If you need anything more, CC has a Top 30 offense and Top 30 special teams when it comes to efficiency, according to S&P+. That efficiency only gets better offensively when they have scoring opportunities, where they rank 8th in the country in converting those opportunities.

Look at the flip side of that equation and UL-Monroe ranks dead last in the same category and nearly dead last – 126th – defensively.

The only thing I hate about this game is that it’s on ESPN+ and I’m finally gonna have to cave to those corporate monsters.

FIU (-2) over Middle Tennessee

MTSU is coming off two big wins and they were rather fortunate in both. The FAU win was a huge comeback that they pulled out by going for two at the end of regulation to win the game by one. Last week was a better performance, but Marshall was without their starting QB.

FIU is off a bye – as opposed to the second straight road trip for MTSU – and the Panthers have been a little more consistent from week-to-week. They’re also a much more balanced offense than the Blue Raiders. The FIU staff has had two weeks to prepare for the MTSU passing game and they’ve been really good defending on passing downs this year. They will be without one of their best pass rushers – Fermin Silva – but he’s a bit of a one-trick pony and the Panthers have several other guys who are capable.

Colorado (+7) over USC

Name me the game this year where USC has really looked impressive this year. Wazzu was a good win for them, but it was a one-sided effort. The defense didn’t show up.

Colorado hasn’t played an elite schedule by any stretch, but they’ve been consistent and have gained a lot of confidence over the first half of the season. JT Daniels may be the star of the future for SC, but Stevie Montez has been a stud for the Buffs this year and he’s got the best target in the country. Shame on me for thinking ASU could slow down Laviska last week.

Colorado has covered three straight against the Trojans.

CHARLOTTE (+9.5) over Western Kentucky

It’s truly a disgusting game, but that’s why I love the home dog here. WKU has been horrendous offensively and Mike Sanford said this week that starting QB Drew Eckels will remain out.

Charlotte is Charlotte, but they’ve been decent at home this year with wins over Old Dominion by 3 and Fordham by 24. They’re not horrendous defensively and when it comes to run defense they’re actually quite competent. I think that’ll be huge this week with WKU having QB troubles and probably hoping to rely more on the running game.

UCLA (+7.5) over CAL

Not a great time to be on the UCLA or Cal beat!

I feel like UCLA is about to go on a long run of covers. Since the bye week, they’ve looked a lot better. The Colorado score ended up being pretty ugly, but that was an even game for a long time in Boulder. The Bruins put together another respectable effort last week against Washington.

It can only get better for the offense as they go through the growing pains with DTR running the show. It’s a tough trip up to face the Bear defense, but Cal’s offense puts very little pressure on opponents. They’re inept and Wilcox can’t commit to one QB.

Georgia Southern (-17) over TEXAS STATE

Feels like it’s about to hit a breaking point at Texas State. HC Everett Withers is fighting with the media for simply doing their jobs. People are openly calling for the AD’s firing at the games.

And it’s become tradition for the Bobcats to throw in the towel under Withers. They’re 1-17 in the Sun Belt during his three years.

I don’t typically consider it to be good practice to take a favorite of 17 points, especially on the road, and especially on a short week.

However, I always like taking option teams on a short week (see: Georgia Tech/Louisville last week). It’s a tough system to prepare for as it is and now the staff has two less days to work with. And to make matters better for GSU, they’ll be going against an incompetent staff.

Louisville (+14) over BOSTON COLLEGE

It’s not gonna be fun, but the Cards do get a couple extra days of prep. They can’t possibly be worse than last week. And they’re either getting no AJ Dillon or a non-100% AJ Dillon for BC.

BC was getting a lot of buzz early in the season, but it was predicated on preseason expectations, blowouts over UMass and Holy Cross, and a road win at Wake Forest, who may be as bad as Louisville. Since then, they’ve been blown out by Purdue, had a shaky win over Temple, and then got down 28-3 to NC State before making it look a little better with some late scores.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN (pick) over Ball State

I’ll always believe in my boy John Bonamego, who was sounding fed up with some of his comments this past week.

Perfect timing. Ball State is CMU’s own personal slump buster. The Chips were a disappointing 3-4 before winning 50-9 in Muncie last year and rattling off five in a row. In 2016 the Chips were on a little two game slide before the Cards rolled into town.

CMU has actually been playing fairly decent and might’ve won last week if not for four turnovers. They’ve had bad turnover luck all year. I think things start to go their way this week. First time Ball State has been on the road in four weeks.

YTD: 29-27-1 (-2.7u)

Leans

Texas Tech (+7) over TCU

Seems like both starting QBs are going to end up playing and this line is too high for a TCU team that’s still overvalued, but I don’t trust Texas Tech to do shit.

ILLINOIS (+10.5) over Purdue

Maybe it’s the scared Purdue fan in me, but it’s an interesting spot. Illinois is coming off a dominant win at Rutgers and likely sees another opportunity for victory. Purdue was sizzling hot offensively the three weeks heading into the bye. Who knows if they can keep that going after the time off? It was also announced on Monday that they’d be playing in the primetime game on ABC next week against Ohio State at home. I would hope they aren’t dumb enough to overlook Illinois, but they are college kids.

Kent State (+11.5) over Miami OH

Feels like a letdown for Miami after last week and Kent is pesky and should only get better in year one under a new coaching staff.

Wisconsin (+7.5) over MICHIGAN

Feels like a trap, but it’s just hard for me to imagine anything other than someone winning this game 20-17.

NAVY (+7) over Temple

Navy has an underrated homefield advantage and I refuse to believe they continue to play this poorly. Ken Nia always seems to figure something out.

Baylor (+14.5) over TEXAS

Baylor already got jumped all over, so the value has kind of been washed away. But there’s always letdown potential.

LSU (+7.5) over Georgia

I watch an unhealthy amount of college football and I think I’ve only maybe seen 20 snaps combined of  Alabama and Georgia so far. I guess I’ll watch this.

Hawaii (+12.5) over BYU

This line has been all over the place. Opened initially at 8, got up to 14.5, and now back down to 12.5. I liked BYU at 8, especially since Hawaii has logged a billion miles the past five weeks with their travel schedule. I wouldn’t actually take the Bows for that reason, but this has gotten pretty high for a team that really sucks at scoring.

Missouri (+28) over ALABAMA

I’m not a psycho, but there seems to be some value in the line, especially with the way Bama has treated second halves.

Minnesota (+29.5) over OHIO STATE

Ditto.

Duke (+3) over GEORGIA TECH

This just seems like quite the overreaction to the last game each team has played. I might actually take it later in the week.

NEVADA (+17.5) over Boise State

Boise has turned into a bit of a wildcard.

2018 CFB Picks: Week 6

After last week, feels like it’s time for your bi-annual reminder to always sprinkle a little on the money line when taking dogs of 14 or less. Got me an extra couple units last week, which is not included in the record. Two units each again this week.

Picks

CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+7.5) over Buffalo

The number is still 7.5.

I can’t sit here and tell you the CMU offense is great, but I think it’s at least getting a little better with Tommy Lazzaro at QB. Lazzaro went three out of four leading scoring drives for the Chips in the second half against Michigan State. I expected the run game to be better than it has been, but they’ve run the gamut of tough run defenses. MSU, Kentucky, and NIU are all Top 25 run defenses in some form or fashion. Maine has only given up 1.5 YPC to opponents on the year. Hopefully the rushing lanes can open for CMU against a below average Bulls run defense.

The one real strength of the entire Chips team is the pass defense. Admittedly, they haven’t faced a murderer’s row of passers, but they’re going to need to keep up that trend against the Bulls, who’ve generated 63% of their offense through the air. Not a staggering number, but above average and they’ve been much more efficient passing than running.

Situationally, I think it’s a good spot for CMU. They had the embarrassing blowout loss to Kansas, but since then took MAC power NIU to the wire, beat Maine, and had a really strong showing against MSU in the second half. They’re gaining confidence.

Buffalo was rolling to start the season before getting blown out last week at home as a touchdown favorite against Army. Sometimes you might expect a bounceback, but I would think confidence might be shaken after last week and now they hit the road. And under Lance Leipold, the Bulls rarely just lose one game in a row. It’s actually only happened once (he’s lost 24 games here) and that was his first season and they beat a 3-9 FAU team.

RUTGERS (+4) over Illinois

The number is now 4.5 or 5.

This is almost entirely about the spot for Rutgers. By no means are they a good football team, but I don’t think they’re as bad as they’ve shown. The number is too high by nearly every statistical evaluation. Let’s not forget they’re playing Illinois.

But I think you’re going to get a desperate Rutgers team. The season hasn’t started like they hoped/expected. And now they get Illinois coming to Piscataway right before the season is essentially over. If lines were made right now, Rutgers would be dogs by at least two touchdowns the rest of the way. The players aren’t stupid. They know if they don’t win this week, they might not win again. They also should have some confidence knowing they went into Champaign and walked away with a 35-24 victory last year.

I’m guessing part of the reason this line has gone up by three points is Illinois coming off a bye week. I can’t express how little that means to me. Last year coming off the bye, the Illini lost 28-6 to 4-8 Nebraska at home. They failed to cover the three games after the bye by an average of 13.3 points and they didn’t win a game the rest of the year. Also heading into this year’s bye, the lasting memory for the team was giving up 42 straight points to Penn State at home, with the Nittany Lions scoring a touchdown every single time they touched the ball in the second half.

And if the line movement had anything to do with AJ Bush’s status being upgraded throughout the week, that’s hilarious. He might be worse than true freshman MJ Rivers, whose been filling in for him.

Arizona State (+2.5) over COLORADO

Same number.

I’ve done a 180 on Herm. I’m now all in on the Herm experiment.

For brevity’s sake because I can already tell this is going to get long: I think Herm and DC Danny Gonzales are going to minimize the impact of my personal man crush Laviska Shenault. Laviska has accounted for 51% of Colorado’s receiving yards.

ASU has done an effective job limiting opponents’ best receivers. Here’s how they’ve fared so far:

  • UTSA: Greg Campbell, 4 catches, 34 yards, 0 TDs, 8.5 YPC (other games: 21 catches, 235 yards, 1 TD, 11.2 YPC)
  • MSU: Felton Davis, 5 catches, 65 yards, 0 TDs, 12.8 YPC (other games: 11 catches, 214 yards, 1 TD, 19.5 YPC)
  • SDSU: the Aztecs don’t have a good receiver. They only had 129 yards passing.
  • UW: Aaron Fuller, 3 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD, 16.7 YPC (other games: 27 catches, 424 yards, 0 TD, 15.7 YPC)
  • OSU: Timmy Hernandez, 7 catches, 61 yards, 0 TD, 8.7 YPC (other games: 19 catches, 218 yards, 1 TD, 11.5 YPC) Also limited Isaiah Hodgins to one catch.

I like Colorado, but they haven’t played a team in the top half of the FBS yet and the big win was at Nebraska in the Huskers first game with a true freshman at QB.

I also like that this game is being played at 2 PM local time. Folsom Field can get pretty raucous at night, but an early afternoon game should keep the crowd subdued.

Kentucky (+6) over TEXAS A&M

It’s still either 5.5 or 6.

It seems much of the world has decided that this is the week that Kentucky turns back into a pumpkin. I’m not sure it’s gonna happen. That defense is legit, playing at a Top 5 level nationally for nearly half a season’s worth now.

The line suggests that even on a neutral field, A&M would be favored. That’s lunacy to me. So far, the two most impressive things A&M has done have come in losing efforts. Those two things: stick around with Clemson at home in Week 2 and “only get destroyed by Alabama, as opposed to obliterated.” There seems to be this hype around A&M as if they’re not sticking to the typical Kevin Sumlin season script to a T.

Meanwhile, UK has beaten three Top 30 teams already. This game should be a pick ’em. I’ve heard – from people I even respect – that A&M is going to “key on Benny Snell”…revolutionary. Guess what? Everyone keys on Benny Snell. He still hangs 100+ about 75% of the time.

WISCONSIN (-20) over Nebraska

The number is now 19.

Nebraska’s not as bad as their 0-4 record, I guess. They can move the ball against mediocre to bad teams. But boy do they kill themselves with bad decisions, turnovers, and penalties.

And now they get to go to Camp Randall with Wisconsin coming off a bye. Nebraska just doesn’t match up well in this game. Teams that spread it out and aren’t chock full of elite athletes never do well with the Badgers.

From what I’ve seen of Adrian Martinez, he’s great in the read option game, can make easy throws, but doesn’t have the accuracy to hang in the pocket and deliver a strike against tight coverage. He’s gonna have to prove me wrong to have much success through the air in this game.

Obviously Wisconsin can run the ball. Given that Michigan averaged 6.3 YPC on their way to 285 rushing yards against Nebraska, I’d say the Badgers are likely to experience some success. Alex Hornibrook is a shaky passer at times, but the Huskers don’t have much of a pass rush, UW has an elite O-Line, and it should provide a lot of time for Hornibrook to find an open man.

I could see this one getting ugly. The Badgers are coming off two ultra-physical games, a bye week, and know they need to be perfect to keep playoff hopes alive. Nebraska is reeling right now.

SAN JOSE STATE (+3.5) over Colorado State

The number is now 2.5 or 3.

I don’t get it. CSU has been terrible. They’re coming off a bye, but I’m not sure what’s going on there. Apparently Mike Bobo had a QB competition going on in the bye week and refuses to name a starter.

News to Mike Bobo: THE PASSING OFFENSE HAS BEEN THE ONLY THING YOU’RE NOT ASTOUNDINGLY ATROCIOUS AT (besides special teams).

Seriously, the run offense, the run defense, and the pass defense are all bottom of the barrel in almost every single way. The pass offense has been above average (admittedly, so has the special teams).

KJ Carta-Samuels has thrown for nearly 300 yards per game at a 63% completion rate, 11 TDs to 4 INTs and has gotten 7.1 YPA. His backup – Colin Hill – has been shit, but still gets in almost every game and apparently now might start.

Uh, okay. Spartans outright.

New Mexico (+10) over UNLV

The number is now 9.5.

Just take it. It should be a touchdown or less even if UNLV wasn’t without QB Armani Rogers. New Mexico also has QB health issues, but it’s not as steep of a drop off. Lobos can win outright.

Utah State (+3) over BYU

The number is now 2.5.

BYU got the buzz for beating Wisconsin in a favorable matchup for them. It was a good win, but Utah State has been consistently a better team over the past year and a half.  BYU was just picked apart by Jake Browning (he went 23-25) and I think Jordan Love can do the same. He’s one of the most underrated QBs in the country. The Aggies have quietly averaged 51.5 PPG through their first four games.

AIR FORCE (+3.5) over Navy

Line is now 3.

This Navy team is getting a lot of credit for playing like shit so far. They’ve covered one game and it was at home against Memphis. They were touchdown dogs and it was a slop fest in the rain. Otherwise, they’ve been pretty bad. They’ve only been favored one time at Air Force and they lost the game outright by nine.

Fresno State (-12) over NEVADA

The line is now anywhere from 13 to 14.

I will ride Fresno until the wheels fall off. Nevada has been terrible against anyone remotely decent and Fresno is by far the best team they’ve played so far. Reno doesn’t exactly scare me as a road favorite.

YTD: 25-22 (+0.3u)

Leans

Tulsa (+18) over HOUSTON

I think Houston is a little overvalued and Tulsa is starting to chip away. Just seems like a lot.

SMU (+24.5) over UCF

SMU is starting to come alive under Sonny Dykes. This game is sandwiched between Pitt and a road game at Memphis for UCF. Hard to bet against UCF, though. They’re dominant and running up the score is about all they have if they want to make an impact on the CFP committee.

OHIO STATE (-25.5) over Indiana

It feels like Ohio State is on a vengeance tour, but Indiana has done remarkably well ATS against the Buckeyes for the better part of a decade.

FLORIDA (+2.5) over LSU

I think Florida is going to win, but these games always seem to be a toss-up.

CINCINNATI (-7) over Tulane

Tulane had a great week against Memphis, but I don’t think all of their issues are solved. I think Cinci is still undervalued in the marketplace.

VIRGINIA TECH (+6) over Notre Dame

It’s gonna be wild in Blacksburg, which brings up memories of last year in Miami for the Irish. But Ian Book scares me. ND was a legit QB away from being a national title contender. They might have one.

NEW MEXICO STATE (+4.5) over Liberty

Hard telling what to expect from Liberty. Kinda feels like they’re due for a stinker.

OREGON STATE (+17) over Washington State

This game is just a potential trap for Wazzu. They just had a big, emotional win over Utah in the final minutes. They’ve got a bye week next and then Oregon. I’d take it if I had any faith in Oregon State, but they did just lose to Arizona by 21 at home.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (+4) over Auburn

It feels like the perfect time to buy low on Mississippi State and Auburn has an overvalued feel to them, but Mississippi State seems to be playing the wrong QB.