2018 CFB Picks: Week 12

Gonna keep it real brief this week. The MLs have been helping me personally this year, just haven’t posted them, so I’ll add them this week.

3 Units

Bowling Green (+7) over AKRON
Bowling Green +230 (0.5u)

It would help if Kato Nelson doesn’t play, but it’s not like the Zips offense is any good with him in there anyway. I think BGSU has had a boost since Jinks got fired and they’ve got the offense to make this a game and potentially steal one.

Air Force (+3, -120) over WYOMING
Air Force +115 (1u)

Wyoming has had a nice streak in this series, but the only thing the Cowboys are actually good at is defending the pass and that’s really not an important trait against an option team. The Cowboys are 4-6 and the best team they’ve beat is 118th in the country, according to S&P+.

SMU (+8.5) over Memphis
SMU +295 (0.5u)

I’ll continue to ride the SMU train. They got backdoored last weekend, but it was still a hell of an offensive performance. They can score on Memphis, who’s been pretty poor on the road all year.

SOUTHERN MISS (+3, -120) over Louisiana Tech
Southern Miss +120 (1u)

Not sure why Southern Miss are home dogs in this one. Their starting QB is probably still out, but the backup has been better than the numbers indicate. Keep in mind that his two starts have come against Top 20 defenses nationally, according to S&P+. The Golden Eagles beat Marshall and lost to UAB on the road by three in those two performances. Not sure how you consider the backup – Tate Whatley – a detriment at this point.

2 Units

CAL (+2) over Stanford
Cal +115 (1u)

Cal’s pass defense should be able to slow down the Cardinal, especially with a hobbled, or potentially absent, JJ Arcega-Whiteside. Bears have held their last four opponents to 12.5 PPG and those opponents included Washington, Washington State, and USC. The offense has its struggles, but this Stanford D is not your older brother’s Stanford D.

TCU (+2) over BAYLOR
TCU +115 (1u)

Yeah sure, the Frogs 47-10 loss at West Virginia was ugly last week, but perhaps you caught Baylor’s 58-14 loss to the Mountaineers a couple weeks before. Neither team is a real prize, but I can at least trust TCU’s defense against a non-elite offense. And that’s really the only unit I trust out there. The Frogs are having a down year, but a big part of that is some horrendous turnover luck. That can’t last forever.

UL-Monroe (+8.5) over ARKANSAS STATE
ULM +270 (0.5u)

Both teams have been on fire lately. The winner puts itself in a good position to win the Sun Belt West. Arkansas State was a bit stronger early in the season, but if you based this line off the past month, it’d be a three point spread at the most.

1 Unit

OKLAHOMA (-35, -120) over Kansas
OKLAHOMA/Kansas under 69

I think it’s hard to lose both of these because I just don’t think Kansas can score enough, despite some of Oklahoma’s troubles defensively. The past three games between these two have looked like this in Norman: 56-3, 44-7, 52-7. KU hasn’t scored 20 points in a game against Oklahoma in its last eight meetings. Sooners will score. They always do.

YTD: 53-46 (+3.4u)

 

 

 

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