2019 CFB Picks: Week 5

1-2 last week for -3.4 units. Far from the worst betting week of my life in terms of losses, but it was extremely aggravating. I’ve mentioned it before, but I pour hours into a numbers-based algorithm every week in CFB and CBB. Nearly every bet I make comes from the system, but I also typically leave out a good chunk of the bets the system tells me to make after I go through the games and look for key stats, injuries, etc.

It worked out pretty well last year, my first year of utilizing the algorithms, by far my best year of betting. But at times I got in my own way and that’s what I feel like I’m doing now. Because I was exhausted when I “handicapped” last week, I just passed on a lot of games because I didn’t have the energy to get too deep in it. I would’ve gone 12-7, instead of the 1-2 I ended up with.

We’re not doing that anymore. I hit 55% in CBB on 300 games last year, went +18.1 units, and from a behind-the-scenes view it was a mild disappointment from what could’ve been. 55% is basically the gold standard from professional sports bettors.

From now on, we’re letting it rip.  The Twitter ants can say whatever they want, we’ve got 19 games on the slate this week for a unit a pop. Throwing a half unit on all underdog money lines except USA. In full disclosure, I took four games out. Two for QB injuries, two for choosing not to bet against the best football teams in the country that can name their score.

Picks

Wazzu (+6) over UTAH

The Cougs blew a big lead last week after building a 32-point lead in the second half. They lost four fumbles in the second half and gave up a punt return TD. That doesn’t seem repeatable. The Utes getting ripped up in the passing game does. USC’s third-stringer tore them up, what is Anthony Gordon gonna do?

South Alabama (+16) over ULM

The status of Tra Minter feels like a big deal for the Jags, but they do trot a ton of guys out their at RB. Monroe has been sup-par against the running game. Love this game if Minter takes the field.

Hawaii (+2.5) over NEVADA

I don’t think Nevada is very good. Purdue appears to stink and it still took a 5-0 TO advantage for the Pack to beat them at home. They lost by 71 to Oregon. They’ve just been okay to beat some terrible opponents the past couple weeks.

Duke (+2.5) over VT

I liked VT heading into the season, but they just appear to not be very good. Duke’s defense appears to be pretty good. Quentin Harris is a dual-threat guy that I think will rip up a still very vulnerable VT defense.

Buffalo (-2.5) over MIAMI (OH)

Miami has played some stiff competition, but Buffalo’s offense has at least shown flashes and the defense has held up for the most part.

Arizona State (+5) over CAL

They’re pretty much the same team and I like taking the Sun Devils here after Cal had that thrilling win on the road over Ole Miss and has to play Oregon on the road next week. Arizona State has been a yo-yo through the first four weeks and I’d expect a strong effort after a disappointing loss last week.

UCLA (+6.5) over ARIZONA

It’s hard for me to buy in with UCLA, but Arizona has some serious flaws too and the Bruins should have some renewed confidence on offense after a strong fourth quarter last week.

UMASS (+7.5) over Akron

Akron has faced stiffer competition so far, but at the end of the day it’s an 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS team laying 7.5 at another 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS team. UMass stinks, but Akron isn’t much better.

USC (+10.5) over WASHINGTON

I’m not sure if third-stringer Matt Fink can keep it going after a strong showing against Utah, but UW might’ve showed their colors when they played Cal at home. Remember how much they were replacing this year. Every other game they’ve had a big talent advantage. USC can play with them.

UAB (-3) over WKU

The line stinks to high heaven, but we’ll take it anyway. UAB lost a lot from last year and a slow start to this season against Alabama State led to some belief that the attrition was taking its toll. But they’ve looked great the last two weeks. I don’t think WKU is awful, but still, I would’ve thought this would be closer to a TD spread.

Iowa State (-3) over BAYLOR

The scores/results of the Cyclones the first two weeks weren’t really indicative of what happened for the most part in terms of game control, efficiencies, etc. That showed last week when they laid waste to Monroe. It’s tough to get a feel for Baylor. They’ve played three awful opponents. They dominated the first two and then eked out a win over Rice last week.

OKLAHOMA STATE (-4) over Kansas State

I’ll be honest, this one scares me, but we’re gonna let it ride. K-State is coming off a bye week and their last game was a road win at Mississippi State. They’ve looked great through three games. But Oklahoma State is also really good and they’ve had to play three of their first four on the road. I like that it’s a night game in Stillwater.

Louisiana Tech (-8.5) over RICE

Rice has been scrappy the first few weeks, but that’s about it. La Tech should be able to air it out against a Rice Pass D that’s been ripped to shreds.

OLD DOMINION (-3) over East Carolina

You like ODU because they’ve given both Virginia and VT games their past couple of games. You’re nervous about ODU because they might be in a letdown spot here.

Penn State (-6.5) over MARYLAND

Another game that makes me nervous. Maryland’s offense was great at home the first two weeks, although the level of competition isn’t nearly what they’ll face on Friday night. Penn State’s defense appears to be one of the best in the league and may shut down Maryland’s run game. The Nittany Lion offense does make me nervous, though. They have been pretty shaky the past couple games.

Wake Forest (-6.5) over BOSTON COLLEGE

BC’s defense stinks, specifically against the pass and that’ll be a problem against Wake, who’s been one of the most efficient through the air in the country.

AUBURN (-10) over Mississippi State

I was wrong about the MSU game last week when I picked against them, but watching the game, I felt like I was more off on Kentucky than the Bulldogs. Auburn’s shown themselves to be a Top 10 team in the country and they should have a better chance at slowing down Kylin Hill.

OKLAHOMA (-27) over Texas Tech

Big number, but the Sooner offense appears to be just as potent with Jalen Hurts running the show. The Red Raider defense does appear to be at least decent, but this is a different level. Alan Bowman is out at QB for Tech, which means Jett Duffey is likely taking over. Duffey is more of a dual threat, but the Sooners should be used to it. They’ve already faced D’Eriq King and DTR.

TCU (-15) over Kansas

A poor showing from the Frogs last week, but I think this is a good matchup for them to get back on track. This is all about the run game. Kansas has been great running the football, but TCU has given up just 1.9 YPC. QB Carter Stanley has been pretty good the past couple weeks, though. Kansas has been okay against the run, but did give up 151 to AJ Dillon. TCU wants to run it down people’s throats and has done so.

ATS: 10-10-2 (-3.7u)

In The System, But Left Out 

Houston +7.5

I do feel like the line has gotten out of control, but there’s just no telling what Houston is without D’Eriq King.

UNC +27

I’m not betting against Clemson. They’re 12-4 ATS their last 16.

Ole Miss +38

I’m also not betting against Alabama.  Ole Miss has improved their defense, but they might not hit double digits against this defense, even if its not highly regarded for Alabama standards.

Ark State +7

Logan Bonner is out at QB1 for Arkansas State. He’s been strong in the first four games with a 10-1 TD-INT ratio and the backups have rarely played.

 

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