Month: October 2019

2019 CFB Picks: Week 9

 

114 GEORGIA STATE (-1) over Troy – 2u

Saturday, 7:00 PM, ESPN+

The Panthers have quietly been one of the biggest surprises in college football this year. They had a win total set at 3.5 and they’re already 5-2 with wins over Tennessee, Army, and Arkansas State. The offense has made big strides, averaging 34.4 PPG. Dan Ellington has been a big part of that as the QB has averaged nearly 300 yards of offense.

I think a lot will be on Ellington’s shoulders Saturday. The Troy run defense has been great again. If the Trojans can limit RB Tra Barnett (no easy task), Ellington may be the best running option, in addition to taking advantage of Troy’s pass defense that’s second-worst in the country in YPG.

Troy’s been a disappointment so far this season after the departure of HC Neal Brown. They’re 3-3 with wins over FCS Campbell and two of the ten worst teams in the FBS. They’ve given up at least 42 in all three of their losses.

I like the home team in what could be a shootout.

119 Eastern Michigan (+4) over TOLEDO – 2u
119 EMU +160 – 0.5u

Saturday, 3:30 PM, ESPN+

Win or lose, watching an EMU game I bet on is always the worst 3.5 hours of my Saturday. It’s brutal, but I’ll sign up for it again.

Toledo is always tough in the Glass Bowl, but they’ve had an awful last couple of weeks and EMU is always a good bet as an underdog. They’re on a run of 18-5 ATS as an underdog with 10 SU wins in that stretch.

After beating WMU at home three weeks ago, the Rockets have gone 0-2 SU and ATS and have missed the spread number by 40 and 35 points the last two weeks.

Both QB situations are up in the air for these teams, but I think any way you slice it, it favors the Eagles. Mitchell Guadagni missed last week for Toledo and Carter Bradley was not good in his absence and now Bradley is questionable himself. It’s unclear if Guadagni will go, but the way Jason Candle was talking to the media this week, it sounded as if Guadagni would still be out.

Mike Glass was out last week for EMU and he’s questionable for this week, as well. Here’s the thing: even if he can go, EMU might be better off with backup Preston Hutchinson, whose stat line looked like this in his first career start against preseason division favorite WMU:

hutchinson

134 EAST CAROLINA (+2) over South Florida – 2u
134 ECU +115 – 0.5u

Saturday, 3:45 PM, ESPNU

I continue to like the trajectory of Mike Houston’s squad and it’s always good to bet against Charlie Strong.

The ECU progression on offense has been a bit slow, but appeared to take a decent jump after the bye week. They just put up 483 yards against UCF on the road. QB Holton Ahlers didn’t crack 200 passing yards in the first three weeks, but has done so in the past four games, and just went over 300 yards for the first time against the Knights. Demetrius Mauney is back at running back and the true freshman with high-major talent will continue to get better.

This is the second straight road game for USF. They just got beat up defending the option up in Annapolis and now they travel again to face a hungry team whose confidence continues to grow.

138 RUTGERS (+7.5) over Liberty – 1u

Saturday, Noon, BTN

I know Rutgers is garbage, but this seems a bit ridiculous. The Scarlet Knights have been so bad on offense, but Liberty is averaging six more points than them against FBS competition. When you look at raw numbers, the line makes a little bit of sense, but just consider that Liberty has played one borderline Top 50 team this year and Rutgers has played five of them. The essential differences in the schedule: Liberty has played Hampton, Maine, New Mexico, and Buffalo while Rutgers has played Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, and Indiana.

I think the Knights have enough to keep it tight in what should be a low-scoring game.

149 Western Kentucky (+5.5) over MARSHALL – 2u
149 WKU +185 – 0.5u

Saturday, 2:30 PM, Facebook

I talk about WKU every week, so I’m not sure what else to say. It’ll probably be another low-scoring game. WKU’s points allowed against Group of 5 teams this year: 14, 13, 3, 8, 14. They’re a very disciplined team. They rank 6th in the nation in penalties per game and tied for 37th in giveaways per game. They get a Marshall team that’s coming off an emotional win at FAU and hasn’t shown the offensive explosiveness to challenge the Hilltopper D.

172 MIDDLE TENNESSEE (+2.5) over FIU – 2u
172 MTSU +115 – 0.5u

Saturday, 3:30 PM, NFL Network

4-3 against 2-5, but it’s another one where you have to consider the schedule. Both teams have played an FCS team, otherwise only two of the teams FIU has played are above the worst FBS team MTSU has played all year. FIU has feasted at home against horrible teams. MTSU has already played four road games. They lost to Duke at home, but otherwise it’s been smooth sailing. Based on the eye test, I really liked what I saw from MTSU last week on offense and they should continue to get better with Stockstill at the helm.

173 Florida Atlantic (-13.5) over OLD DOMINION – 2u

Saturday, 3:30 PM, ESPN+

This should probably be a TD more. FAU started with Ohio State and UCF, ever since they’ve averaged 37.4 PPG. Old Dominion hasn’t cracked 24 points in a game all year and they’ve averaged 16.1.

207 Notre Dame (-105) over MICHIGAN – 2u

Saturday, 7:30 PM, ABC

Go Irish. I’ve thought they were better from the jump and nothing has swayed my opinion. I’ll trust Ian Book over Shea Patterson.

ATS: 44-41-1 (-4.05u)

ML: 14-21 (+0.93u)

 

 

 

 

 

 

2019 CFB Picks: Week 8

7-12 ATS last week. 3-7 ML. It was a bad week, no two ways around it. We’re sticking with the system, but we’ve refined things. The system is still up, but it could be better and that’s the way it’ll be moving forward. All ATS picks are 1.5u this week and ML picks are still 0.5u.

317 Duke (+3) over VIRGINIA
317 Duke +140 ML

I think what you’ve started to see with the Virginia offense is that it’s pretty much all up to Bryce Perkins. Perkins is a good player, but it’s shown diminishing returns as the season has gone along. They haven’t eclipsed 350 total yards in a game since that comeback win over Florida State, where more than half of their yards came on the last three drives of the game.

UVA caught Notre Dame in a letdown spot and capitalized in the first half. Since then, their last six quarters of offense: five turnovers, five punts, two turnover on downs, one end of game, four field goals, and one missed field goal.

The Cavs haven’t been able to run all year. They’ve averaged 2.6 YPC on the season. Not helping that number is the 27 sacks they’ve given up (5.5 per game). I wouldn’t expect that to get much better against a Duke run defense that’s given up just 3.5 YPC.

Things won’t be that easy for the Duke offense either, however. The UVA defense has been nearly as good as the run offense has been bad. But they did just lose stud CB Bryce Hall. Hall was a defensive leader and a projected Top 10 pick in the draft.

Duke’s offense isn’t eye-popping, but after the opener with Alabama they’ve scored 45, 41, 45, 30, 41 the last five weeks.

333 Coastal Carolina (+6.5) over GEORGIA SOUTHERN
333 Coastal +200 ML

Full disclosure, I don’t think I’ve ever hit a bet on Coastal, including last week. But it’s been a few days and I’m ready to get hurt again.

But this really has more to do with GSU and the disappointing run they’ve been on. They haven’t had one single impressive performance in five games. A square might point to that narrow defeat at Minnesota, but they gained 198 yards. They kept in the game with a blocked FG TD, a fumble return TD, and two short scoring drives due to Minnesota turnovers. They’re coming off a bye, but their most recent performance was having to score a last second TD just to force OT against lowly South Alabama.

385 Old Dominion (+16.5) over UAB

This is a big weekend for UAB doing special things for children in hospitals, so admittedly it’s kind of a scummy pick. It’s big of me to not take the money line and merely cheer for a 14-point UAB win. The raw numbers don’t look great for ODU, but half their games have been road games against Virginia, VT, and Marshall. They’ve also played a home game against WKU, who just might win the C-USA.

A big reason to like ODU to cover here is their run defense. UAB is a run-first offense and ODU has given up just 3.3 YPC this year. Spencer Brown is still out at RB for the Blazers. Lucious has been a solid replacement, but he’s really only ran against the drecks of college football. Tyler Johnston has put up solid numbers at QB for UAB, but it’s come at somewhat of a cost. He’s thrown nine INTs already.

360 UTAH (-13.5) over Arizona State

I like Jayden Daniels in the long-term, but I just don’t think this is the game for him and I think ASU is going to really be counting on him to compete in this game. Daniels is a true freshman. He’s had four games that were decent to very good. Opponents in those games: Kent State, Sac State, Colorado, and Wazzu. Not a good defense to be found there.

He struggled against MSU and Cal. In fairness, they won both of those games, but they scored a combined 34 points. MSU and Cal are both half teams and both of their halves are the defense.

Utah is not a half team. Their offense ranks 7th in FPI and 13th in SP+ and they haven’t even been fully healthy this year. With Zack Moss back in the fold, the Utes are dangerous in Rice-Eccles.

414 NORTH TEXAS (-7.5) over MTSU

We’re going back to the Mean Green well. Last week was unfortunate with Mason Fine getting hurt. Turns out it was his non-throwing shoulder and he’s expected to play this week. I’m not sure what you hang your hat on with MTSU this week. They’ve played one good game all year against Marshall at home. They’re not really good at anything and they’re just 5-10 ATS their last 15 on the road.

344 IOWA (-17.5) over Purdue

I’m a Purdue guy so this hurts to take, but I have to take any personal bias out of it. I will mention that Jeff Brohm is 2-0 SU and ATS against Kirk Ferentz since he took over.

But that’s a small sample size and a bigger one is that Iowa has only given up 10.2 PPG this year. Purdue is occasionally explosive, but the only time they have been since Sindelar got hurt is at home against Maryland and the second half against Minnesota after they were already getting blown out at home. The Boilers can’t run the ball and it’s hard to see them throwing on an Iowa defense that knows they’re one-dimensional.

The defense is how Iowa covers this game, but the offense will have to do something. I think this might be a bounceback game for the Hawkeye offense. They’ve looked awful the last two weeks, but Purdue is not Michigan or Penn State defensively. They’re vulnerable and the Boilers don’t have nearly the pass-rush that UM or PSU had and that’s been the real problem for Iowa’s offense. I think they exorcise some demons here.

364 MIAMI (OH) (+2.5) over Northern Illinois
364 Miami OH +120 ML

I promise you this is never going to be fun, but this is the perfect time to bet on Miami. Their profile has been wrecked with games at OSU, Iowa, Cincinnati, and WMU. NIU stinks and shouldn’t be giving points on the road here. They’re coming off a great win at Ohio, but that sticks out as an outlier.

312 SYRACUSE (+3.5) over Pitt
312 Syracuse +145 ML

I hate Syracuse, but the system is the system. You can’t trust anything in the ACC Coastal division.

328 MARYLAND (+6.5) over Indiana
328 Maryland +180 ML

Last week looked really bad for Maryland, but they just have to stay out of their own way. They had a 50 yard bomb called back on their first drive last week. They also had a perfect wheel route dropped by Anthony McFarland in the first half. On top of that, Piggy threw a pick-6 right at the end of the half to put them down 30-14 at halftime when they probably should’ve been up 28-23.

If they can avoid big mistakes this week, they’ll compete. IU has built a resume off Rutgers, UConn, and Eastern Illinois. They played tight games with Ball State and an overrated Michigan State team. OSU boat raced them in Bloomington. Maryland should be able to run in this game.

324 GEORGIA STATE (+6) over Army
324 Georgia St +200 ML

Sad as it is to say, Army is still overrated and Georgia State is still undervalued. I don’t know what the total is here, but the over seems like a play.

ATS: 39-36-1 (-3.3u)

ML: 12-17 (+1.33u)

 

 

2019 CFB Picks: Week 7

11-6-1 ATS last week for +4.4u and 5-7 on money line picks for +1.15u.

1 unit on every spread pick and 0.5 units on every money line pick, with the exception of SJSU and Navy. Those are both full unit picks.

Thursday

8:00 PM

107 Syracuse (+4.5) over NC STATE
107 Syracuse +170 ML

I don’t really have anything profound to say other than trust the system. It’s a matchup of two teams who’ve been disappointing thus far and they’ve both been blown out on the road by mediocre teams, although I will say it’s happened twice to NC State.

9:15 PM

106 TEXAS STATE (+3.5) over UL Monroe
106 Texas State +140 ML

Texas State is gonna get better this season as Jake Spavital develops the program. They’ve been pretty good at home this year. This is a nightmare scheduling spot for Monroe. They’re coming off a big game against Memphis, it’s a short week to prepare, they’re on the road, and they’ve got a potential look-ahead spot with App State on the horizon next week. Oh, and Texas State is coming off a bye.

Saturday

12:00 PM

158 TENNESSEE (+7) over Mississippi State
158 Tennessee +220 ML

The Vols have largely been dogshit this season, but for as much as you can like a team that lost by 29 at home, I liked Tennessee against Georgia. Kylin Hill could be a problem for them, but I found the offense so much more intriguing with Brian Maurer at QB.

12:30 PM

132 DUKE (-17.5) over Georgia Tech

Tech is really bad. Duke had a big turnover problem in the first half last week, but the second half showed once again how good they can be. They’ve murdered teams they’re clearly better than.

2:00 PM

142 EMU (-1) over Ball State

Feels like a minor “breakout” game for the Eagles. They started off with three straight road games and they played pretty well, including a win at Illinois. They’ve played like crap the last two weeks, but after 4 of 5 on the road, this feels like an opportunity. Ball State has been a surprise to start the season, but this is their third straight road game and they’re coming off the high of a big win at NIU last week. I feel like before this season, the line would’ve been around 7-10 points in EMU’s favor and then it opened as a pick’em.

3:30 PM

172 HOUSTON (+7.5) over Cincinnati
172 Houston +240 ML

Feels like a terrible spot for Cincinnati. They are coming off a huge win at Marshall and an even bigger win against UCF last week. Their social media squad was creating glorious shit-talking videos after the UCF win. They just got ranked. Now they have to go on the road against a Houston squad that flourished without D’Eriq King and is coming off a bye.

178 WISCONSIN (-10.5) over Michigan State

It may be like 14-3, but it’s just hard to envision MSU scoring enough to cover this game. If you’re biased toward Wisconsin, you’ll focus on the Michigan domination. If you’re biased against Wisconsin, you’ll focus on the Northwestern struggle. If you’re me, you’ll focus on Wisconsin only giving up 5.8 PPG through five games this year. They’ve pitched three shutouts. Yes, Michigan was their peak and Northwestern was also their low. Otherwise, they’re up 158-0.

With a Sparty offense that always seems to be searching for something and coming off a road game against Ohio State, I don’t think they’ll be up for the challenge in Madison. Only time that Chryst and Dantonio matched up, it was a 30-6 rout for the Badgers in East Lansing.

202 CLEMSON (-27) over Florida State

There’s just so much blowout potential around this game. To start, Clemson won 59-10 in Tallahassee last year. That’s a good place to start.

I’ve never seen anybody as good as Dabo at spinning things so much that he makes his juggernaut of a football team feel like they’re underdogs. It’s an elite skill. I can’t imagine  what he was drumming up in the bye week after they just snuck past UNC and everybody started throwing them out of the Top 5.

Since Willie Taggart came to FSU, the big issue for Florida State has been the O-line and now they have to go up against this nasty defensive front and Brent Venables has had two weeks to prepare.

148 ARIZONA STATE (pick) over Washington State

Sad to say, but Wazzu might just stink. They blew out a couple of horrible opponents to start the year, had to come back to win over a mediocre Houston squad, gave up a million in the second half and lost at home to dreadful UCLA, and then got drilled at Utah.

4:00 PM

181 San Jose State (+120 ML) over NEVADA

The Spartans love to air it out and they’ll be going against one of the worst pass defenses in college football.

176 VANDERBILT (-14.5) over UNLV

It’s been a tough start to the season for the Dores, with an 0-5 ATS record and 1-4 SU. But this feels like the perfect time for them to get rid of some frustrations against a 1-4 UNLV team that hasn’t cracked 20 points since the opener against Southern Utah.

5:00 PM

134 COASTAL CAROLINA (-4.5) over Georgia State

GSU has been a team of peaks and valleys so far and they’re coming off a big peak, upsetting Arkansas State last week. Coastal has been very solid to start the year, including that win over Kansas. The offense has been very efficient and they should be able to take advantage of a Panther run defense that gives up 6.0 YPC.

7:00 PM

189 North Texas (+3.5) over SOUTHERN MISS
189 North Texas +150 ML

I think it’s a big bounceback week for the Mean Green after a bye and that weird Houston loss when D’Eriq King abruptly quit the season before the game. This is a matchup they’ve owned since Seth Littrell took over. They’re 3-0 SU and ATS against USM with an average cover of 16.8 PPG.

192 WKU (+5) over Army
192 WKU +175 ML

WKU is suddenly a darkhorse candidate to win the C-USA. I didn’t remotely believe in them at the start of the year, but the defense appears to be legit. They’ve held conference foes to 14, 13, and 3 points so far. They’ve been very good in both phases of the game and obviously the run defense will be important against Army.

193 Charlotte (+5.5) over FIU
193 Charlotte +175 ML

Last week might have been a get right game for FIU, but Charlotte is coming off a bye after a disappointing performance against FAU. The 49er defense has looked questionable to say the least, but they’ve played road games at Clemson and App State. This won’t be as big of a challenge and I think the offense should be able to control the ball some against an FIU run defense that’s been poor.

7:30 PM

123 Navy (-105 ML) over TULSA

Navy just might be back to being top dog among the service academies and I’m not sure the market has caught up after the disappointment of last season. They’ve been +12.8 PPG against the spread this year and now they get a Tulsa team that has to be reeling after blowing a huge lead at SMU last week.

204 IOWA (+3.5) over Penn State
204 Iowa +155 ML

Just a disastrous offensive performance last week for the Hawkeyes at Michigan. A lot of blame was placed on Nate Stanley and while he did deserve quite a bit of it, that O-line deserved just as much. Penn State’s a tough defense to bounce back against, but there’s no way Iowa can be worse. Of course they also get to play this one at home in a night game.

I’ve been as high as anybody on the Nittany Lions from the start of the season, but they’ve played a pretty soft schedule so far. Pitt is decent, but otherwise this Iowa defense is miles better than anybody Penn State has seen.

Iowa is 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 as a home dog. That stretches all the way back to 2000 when their coach was…Kirk Ferentz. They’ve been better than the number by an average of almost a TD per game.

8:00 PM

150 OREGON STATE (+14) over Utah

A lot of points for Utah to be laying against a team on the upswing that’s had two of its best weeks back-to-back than it has for years. Oregon State can move the ball both ways and they won’t quit until the bitter end. Could be one where we need a late one to sneak in the back door.

179 Florida (+13.5) over LSU

I’m not gonna lie, I’ll be scared. An LSU team that can pass is a scary proposition.

I gotta tell you though, I’m exhausted with the narrative around Florida. Before the season any time the “Who’s the preseason Top 10 team that won’t finish in the Top 25?” question was asked, every damn answer involved Florida. They beat Miami to open the year and it’s “both teams stink.” They win at Kentucky, losing their starting QB mid-game, and it was “lucky.” They beat Top 10 team Auburn at home and “outside of two big plays” it’s an even game, as if explosive plays aren’t a way to judge football teams.

Anyway, Go Gators. They’re 6-0 and have a more impressive resume than the team giving 13.5, but whatever.

10:30 PM

206 SAN DIEGO STATE (-3.5) over Wyoming

Sorry, still upset about Florida. Afraid this game might be like 9-6 or something.

11:00 PM

152 ARIZONA (+6.5) over Washington
152 Arizona +190 ML

Arizona feels sneaky kind of good. Washington feels sneaky kind of not good.

ATS: 32-24-1 (+2.9u)

ML: 9-10 (+2.85u)

 

 

 

2019 CFB Picks: Week 6

Tweeted out on Wednesday:

Thursday – 8 PM

306 ECU (+11.5) over Temple
306 ECU +330 ML

This game kicks off 15 minutes from when I’m typing this, so let’s hope it’s a winner. I think ECU should be a team that trends well as the season goes on, the further they get from the Montgomery Era and transition into the Houston Era. The lack of offensive production so far is concerning, but it’s a tough spot for Temple. They’re on the road in a short week and it’s sandwiched between a win over a Power 5 team and a tilt with Memphis next week.

I’ll be deleting all of this if I see it’s going poorly. (Editor’s note: WHAT A BACKDOOR!!!)

Saturday 

12:00 PM

324 ARMY (+3) over Tulane
324 Army +130 ML

You have a moral obligation to take Army as a home dog. It’s only the third time it’s happened in the last 3.5 years. The Knights are 8-3 ATS their last 11 as an underdog – no matter the location – with five straight up wins. These two have matched up a couple times over the last few years. Tulane won both, but they were both coin flip games.

It’s gonna be a run-fest in West Point. That should favor Army. They’ve had a great run defense for years and held Michigan to 2.4 YPC in Ann Arbor. Tulane is more creative, but obviously don’t have near the talent. Of course Army also runs the ball more than anybody in the country and the Green Wave have been below-average in run defense efficiency.

355 Iowa (+3.5) over MICHIGAN
355 Iowa +145 ML

This feels like a potential breakout spot for Michigan, but based on what we’ve seen so far,  Iowa is the play. I’ve been a Wolverine doubter from the jump, but they’ve even been worse than I expected. I think the defenses are fairly even, but I do think the Hawkeyes have a better chance to run the ball successfully and I think they have the better QB.

373 TCU (+3.5) over IOWA STATE
373 TCU +145 ML

2-2 with an OT win over Northern Iowa seems like the worst-case outcome for ISU based on how they’ve played for the most part. There are two ways to look at that: either they are bound to get some good fortune soon or they have a hard time finishing things and this is how it will continue. Honestly, I don’t know what to think. They’re four games in and they just continue to have turnovers at the worst time, not convert fourth-and-shorts, miss kicks, get kicks blocked, etc.

It’s hard to ever bet against Gary Patterson and TCU. The offense has been fairly one-dimensional so far, but the passing game seems to be getting better. It’s important to remember Max Duggan is a true freshman. He’s had a slow start, but still has a 7-0 TD-INT ratio. He went 8-11 last week for a couple TDs and should only continue to grow. The run game continues to be dominant.

393 Utah State (+27.5) over LSU

LSU’s been good through four games, but they have shown that they can be a bit vulnerable defensively in the passing game. Jordan Love and Utah State have a lot more to prove in this game and USU will sling it. Obviously this game means much more to the Aggies and I’d expect them to battle until the end. With a matchup with Florida on the horizon, I’m not sure this game has the full attention of the Bayou Bengals.

12:30 PM

313 BC (+6.5) over LOUISVILLE
313 BC +195 ML

The market has dropped quite a bit on BC after the Kansas debacle. I think what we’ve learned since then is that BC isn’t as bad as it looked and Kansas wasn’t as good as it looked. It was an outlier game and a horrific night for the Eagles.

Louisville is improved, but I still think they’ve got a lot to prove in an expected close game. They beat EKU and WKU. They had a nice comeback against FSU, but then got roasted at the end of the game and lost by dougle-digits. They also have the 18-point home loss to Notre Dame. Just because they’re better than last year, doesn’t mean they should be giving nearly a TD to a fairly comparable team.

3:30 PM

318 WVU (+11) over Texas
318 WVU +325 ML

Kind of a weird game to predict, but they should be charged up in Morgantown. WVU had a shaky start, but have since blown out NC State and won on the road at Kansas. Texas is banged up in the secondary and they’ve got the Red River Shootout next week.

358 MINNESOTA (-14) over Illinois

Should be a bit of a revenge game for the Gophers after last year. Minnesota was inconsistent last year and they got blown out by the Illini around the same time they were crushing Wisconsin on the road and Purdue at home. You could consider it a letdown spot after last week’s big road win for the Gophers and next week’s battle against Nebraska, but I think PJ Fleck will have them ready.

366 NAVY (+3.5) over Air Force 
366 Navy +160 ML

The home team has won six straight in the series. Navy was in it the whole way with Memphis last week, despite Malcolm Perry being banged up for most of it. Perry’s status was questionable this week, but it looks like he’ll play. Based on performance this year alone, I’m not sure what would make you think AFA is much better than Navy, let alone 3.5 point road favorites.

372 BUFFALO (+3.5) over Ohio
372 Buffalo +140 ML

Buffalo has been much better at home and Ohio hasn’t proven anything so far this year. Should probably be a pick’em game, at most for the Bobcats.

382 GEORGIA STATE (+7.5) over Arkansas State
382 Georgia State +240 ML

It’s been an emotional season for Arkansas State and they’re coming off a massive road win at Troy. They’ve also got a big game with Louisiana coming up. Georgia State peaked with a win at Tennessee to start the season and has been floating since. However, they’ve played three of four games on the road and I think they’ll be inspired this week after a bye and with the game at home.

4:30 PM

343 Arizona (+4.5) over COLORADO
343 Arizona +180 ML

Idk, it’s what the system tells me to do. Colorado is coming off a bye. They had a big win over ASU and they’ve got Oregon on the horizon. Laviska is a maybe.

6:00 PM

336 CMU (+6) over EMU
336 CMU +190 ML

I can’t think of the last time EMU has won a game in convincing fashion. They beat Illinois and then needed a blocked punt returned for a TD to pull out a miracle win over Central Connecticut State. CMU has been scrappy and should improve the longer Jim McElwain is there.

7:00 PM

387 UMass (+26.5) over FIU

UMass is on a winning streak

7:30 PM

392 OHIO STATE (-20) over Michigan State

I’m not saying MSU won’t cover, but this is the ultimate square dog game where the only reasoning is “it’s too many points.” It seems like a lot until the game starts and you remember how bad the MSU offense is and OSU’s skill guys make you realize that MSU is no longer defending Arizona State and Northwestern.

8:00 PM

325 Pitt (+5) over DUKE
325 Pitt +160 ML

I think the Pitt defense is actually pretty good. Duke is coming off the high of that blowout win at VT, but it looks a lot better now than it probably will at the end of the season.

396 UTEP (-1.5) over UTSA

This is a horrendous game and I don’t recommend watching it. I’ll be glued to the screen.

10:30 PM

352 STANFORD (+16.5) over Washington

I refuse to believe Stanford is going to suck all season.

ATS: 21-18 (-1.5u)

ML: 4-3 (+1.7u)