2019 CFB Picks: Week 7

11-6-1 ATS last week for +4.4u and 5-7 on money line picks for +1.15u.

1 unit on every spread pick and 0.5 units on every money line pick, with the exception of SJSU and Navy. Those are both full unit picks.

Thursday

8:00 PM

107 Syracuse (+4.5) over NC STATE
107 Syracuse +170 ML

I don’t really have anything profound to say other than trust the system. It’s a matchup of two teams who’ve been disappointing thus far and they’ve both been blown out on the road by mediocre teams, although I will say it’s happened twice to NC State.

9:15 PM

106 TEXAS STATE (+3.5) over UL Monroe
106 Texas State +140 ML

Texas State is gonna get better this season as Jake Spavital develops the program. They’ve been pretty good at home this year. This is a nightmare scheduling spot for Monroe. They’re coming off a big game against Memphis, it’s a short week to prepare, they’re on the road, and they’ve got a potential look-ahead spot with App State on the horizon next week. Oh, and Texas State is coming off a bye.

Saturday

12:00 PM

158 TENNESSEE (+7) over Mississippi State
158 Tennessee +220 ML

The Vols have largely been dogshit this season, but for as much as you can like a team that lost by 29 at home, I liked Tennessee against Georgia. Kylin Hill could be a problem for them, but I found the offense so much more intriguing with Brian Maurer at QB.

12:30 PM

132 DUKE (-17.5) over Georgia Tech

Tech is really bad. Duke had a big turnover problem in the first half last week, but the second half showed once again how good they can be. They’ve murdered teams they’re clearly better than.

2:00 PM

142 EMU (-1) over Ball State

Feels like a minor “breakout” game for the Eagles. They started off with three straight road games and they played pretty well, including a win at Illinois. They’ve played like crap the last two weeks, but after 4 of 5 on the road, this feels like an opportunity. Ball State has been a surprise to start the season, but this is their third straight road game and they’re coming off the high of a big win at NIU last week. I feel like before this season, the line would’ve been around 7-10 points in EMU’s favor and then it opened as a pick’em.

3:30 PM

172 HOUSTON (+7.5) over Cincinnati
172 Houston +240 ML

Feels like a terrible spot for Cincinnati. They are coming off a huge win at Marshall and an even bigger win against UCF last week. Their social media squad was creating glorious shit-talking videos after the UCF win. They just got ranked. Now they have to go on the road against a Houston squad that flourished without D’Eriq King and is coming off a bye.

178 WISCONSIN (-10.5) over Michigan State

It may be like 14-3, but it’s just hard to envision MSU scoring enough to cover this game. If you’re biased toward Wisconsin, you’ll focus on the Michigan domination. If you’re biased against Wisconsin, you’ll focus on the Northwestern struggle. If you’re me, you’ll focus on Wisconsin only giving up 5.8 PPG through five games this year. They’ve pitched three shutouts. Yes, Michigan was their peak and Northwestern was also their low. Otherwise, they’re up 158-0.

With a Sparty offense that always seems to be searching for something and coming off a road game against Ohio State, I don’t think they’ll be up for the challenge in Madison. Only time that Chryst and Dantonio matched up, it was a 30-6 rout for the Badgers in East Lansing.

202 CLEMSON (-27) over Florida State

There’s just so much blowout potential around this game. To start, Clemson won 59-10 in Tallahassee last year. That’s a good place to start.

I’ve never seen anybody as good as Dabo at spinning things so much that he makes his juggernaut of a football team feel like they’re underdogs. It’s an elite skill. I can’t imagine  what he was drumming up in the bye week after they just snuck past UNC and everybody started throwing them out of the Top 5.

Since Willie Taggart came to FSU, the big issue for Florida State has been the O-line and now they have to go up against this nasty defensive front and Brent Venables has had two weeks to prepare.

148 ARIZONA STATE (pick) over Washington State

Sad to say, but Wazzu might just stink. They blew out a couple of horrible opponents to start the year, had to come back to win over a mediocre Houston squad, gave up a million in the second half and lost at home to dreadful UCLA, and then got drilled at Utah.

4:00 PM

181 San Jose State (+120 ML) over NEVADA

The Spartans love to air it out and they’ll be going against one of the worst pass defenses in college football.

176 VANDERBILT (-14.5) over UNLV

It’s been a tough start to the season for the Dores, with an 0-5 ATS record and 1-4 SU. But this feels like the perfect time for them to get rid of some frustrations against a 1-4 UNLV team that hasn’t cracked 20 points since the opener against Southern Utah.

5:00 PM

134 COASTAL CAROLINA (-4.5) over Georgia State

GSU has been a team of peaks and valleys so far and they’re coming off a big peak, upsetting Arkansas State last week. Coastal has been very solid to start the year, including that win over Kansas. The offense has been very efficient and they should be able to take advantage of a Panther run defense that gives up 6.0 YPC.

7:00 PM

189 North Texas (+3.5) over SOUTHERN MISS
189 North Texas +150 ML

I think it’s a big bounceback week for the Mean Green after a bye and that weird Houston loss when D’Eriq King abruptly quit the season before the game. This is a matchup they’ve owned since Seth Littrell took over. They’re 3-0 SU and ATS against USM with an average cover of 16.8 PPG.

192 WKU (+5) over Army
192 WKU +175 ML

WKU is suddenly a darkhorse candidate to win the C-USA. I didn’t remotely believe in them at the start of the year, but the defense appears to be legit. They’ve held conference foes to 14, 13, and 3 points so far. They’ve been very good in both phases of the game and obviously the run defense will be important against Army.

193 Charlotte (+5.5) over FIU
193 Charlotte +175 ML

Last week might have been a get right game for FIU, but Charlotte is coming off a bye after a disappointing performance against FAU. The 49er defense has looked questionable to say the least, but they’ve played road games at Clemson and App State. This won’t be as big of a challenge and I think the offense should be able to control the ball some against an FIU run defense that’s been poor.

7:30 PM

123 Navy (-105 ML) over TULSA

Navy just might be back to being top dog among the service academies and I’m not sure the market has caught up after the disappointment of last season. They’ve been +12.8 PPG against the spread this year and now they get a Tulsa team that has to be reeling after blowing a huge lead at SMU last week.

204 IOWA (+3.5) over Penn State
204 Iowa +155 ML

Just a disastrous offensive performance last week for the Hawkeyes at Michigan. A lot of blame was placed on Nate Stanley and while he did deserve quite a bit of it, that O-line deserved just as much. Penn State’s a tough defense to bounce back against, but there’s no way Iowa can be worse. Of course they also get to play this one at home in a night game.

I’ve been as high as anybody on the Nittany Lions from the start of the season, but they’ve played a pretty soft schedule so far. Pitt is decent, but otherwise this Iowa defense is miles better than anybody Penn State has seen.

Iowa is 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 as a home dog. That stretches all the way back to 2000 when their coach was…Kirk Ferentz. They’ve been better than the number by an average of almost a TD per game.

8:00 PM

150 OREGON STATE (+14) over Utah

A lot of points for Utah to be laying against a team on the upswing that’s had two of its best weeks back-to-back than it has for years. Oregon State can move the ball both ways and they won’t quit until the bitter end. Could be one where we need a late one to sneak in the back door.

179 Florida (+13.5) over LSU

I’m not gonna lie, I’ll be scared. An LSU team that can pass is a scary proposition.

I gotta tell you though, I’m exhausted with the narrative around Florida. Before the season any time the “Who’s the preseason Top 10 team that won’t finish in the Top 25?” question was asked, every damn answer involved Florida. They beat Miami to open the year and it’s “both teams stink.” They win at Kentucky, losing their starting QB mid-game, and it was “lucky.” They beat Top 10 team Auburn at home and “outside of two big plays” it’s an even game, as if explosive plays aren’t a way to judge football teams.

Anyway, Go Gators. They’re 6-0 and have a more impressive resume than the team giving 13.5, but whatever.

10:30 PM

206 SAN DIEGO STATE (-3.5) over Wyoming

Sorry, still upset about Florida. Afraid this game might be like 9-6 or something.

11:00 PM

152 ARIZONA (+6.5) over Washington
152 Arizona +190 ML

Arizona feels sneaky kind of good. Washington feels sneaky kind of not good.

ATS: 32-24-1 (+2.9u)

ML: 9-10 (+2.85u)

 

 

 

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