2019 CFB Season Win Total Recap

First off, here’s all the plays before the season. If you’re new, all of the 3*-5* confidence picks are actual bets.

It was another great year for the win totals. 14-5-1 for +26*. Of the five losses, four of them were plus money bets. After starting this a couple of years ago, the bets have gone 38-17-6 (69%) for +58.3*.

While slightly less profitable than the 2017 season, this was the most successful year, top-to-bottom. The 2* picks were 19-10-1 for +16.4*. Anything above the 1* picks were a total of 33-15-2 (also 69%) for 42.4*.

Across the board for all 130 teams in the country, the result was 73-50-7 for +45*.

There are also four teams still alive in the conference championship games this weekend: Oregon (+300), Baylor (+1800), Boise (+110), and Louisiana (+1350). Five of the other six picks all would’ve been playing in the title if not for losing head-to-head games with teams that won their divisions.

Here’s the results for the actual bets:

Team O/U Total Price W L Result $
Arkansas under 5.5 -140 2 10 W +3
Baylor over 7.5 -115 11 1 W +3
FIU over 7.5 +105 6 6 L -4
Florida over 8.5 -135 10 2 W +4
GA Southern over 6.5 -120 7 5 W +3
Hawaii over 5.5 -130 9 4 W +3
Indiana under 6.5 -125 8 4 L -5
Notre Dame over 9 -120 10 2 W +3
Nebraska under 8.5 -110 5 7 W +3
New Mexico under 4.5 -130 2 10 W +4
Northwestern over 6.5 +110 3 9 L -3
Penn State over 8.5 -110 10 2 W +3
Rutgers under 3 -105 2 10 W +3
Temple over 6.5 -140 8 4 W +3
Tennessee under 6.5 +125 7 5 L -3
Tulane over 5.5 -150 6 6 W +3
Uconn under 2.5 -115 2 10 W +3
Virginia over 7.5 -140 9 3 W +3
VT over 8 -125 8 4 P 0
WVU over 5.5 +150 5 7 L -3
Total 14-5-1 +26

THE GOOD

Most of it was good, but Arkansas, Baylor, Hawaii, and Nebraska all cleared by 3.5 games and New Mexico by 2.5 games. The Nebraska play should’ve been 4* or 5* bet, but all of the hype around them got in my head a little and I couldn’t fully commit.

Rutgers and UConn both had extremely low totals, but also both won the games you thought they would win and never came all that close to winning anything else.

Penn State, Florida, and Notre Dame were also fairly easy for as high of totals as they were.

A win in the Commonwealth Cup would’ve been awesome for VT, but some pushes are better than others. The Hokies looked like a 6-6 team at the absolute best through four weeks before Hendon Hooker took over at QB.

THE BAD

Two of the five losses were both by a half of a game and both were plus-money, but losses are losses.

WVU was much closer to cashing than the market price suggested, but ultimately came up short. There were a couple of close losses, but more close wins. More disappointing was the 21-point loss they had at home against Texas Tech late in the year when they outgained the Red Raiders, but had four turnovers. Jarret Doege took over at QB in that game and things seemed to get better from there in the last few weeks.

Tennessee probably should’ve been a winner, but the Kentucky game was a killer. The Cats outgained them despite having a WR at QB, but had five trips into Vol territory result in 0 points. After losing at home to Georgia State and BYU, the Vols went 5-3 in conference play despite giving up more points against the SEC than they scored. They were outscored 112-30 by the three actually good SEC teams that they played.

THE UGLY

Northwestern was pretty bad. Only needed four more wins. I admittedly got swept up a bit in the Hunter Johnson hype, but more than anything it was a Pat Fitzgerald-respect pick with plus-money. Turns out Hunter Johnson and every Northwestern QB stinks and there was good reason I didn’t have to pay the juice on that one.

The under on Indiana lost by a couple. I figured they’d be 3-0 in the non-con and 0-4 against the typical Top 4 of the East. What I didn’t anticipate was their three crossover opponents – Nebraska, Purdue, and Northwestern – all finishing 3.5 games under their season total expectations. They still haven’t beaten a Big Ten team with a winning conference record since 2008. But there’s definitely something to be said for winning the games you’re supposed to win and they did that eight out of eight times.

I pretty much knew the FIU pick was over when they lost to WKU at home in Week 2. The Hilltoppers were better than expected this year, but that was one FIU really needed. They were 2-2 in close games, so it’s not like it was bad luck or anything. The Panthers were just really horrific on the road, going 0-5 and were only close once. They had to upset Miami late in the year just to get bowl eligible.

Here’s the 2* plays that went 19-10-1 for +16.4*:

2.png

Not gonna post the 1* because who really cares, but they went 40-35-5 for +2.6*. Can’t wait for next year.

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