Welcome to the first installment of the 2019 Overvalued, Undervalued, or Properly Valued series.

If you’re new this year, this is all based on taking the current odds to win the national title of likely tournament teams and comparing them to the what will now be known as the Final Four Index (FFI). Here’s a little background.

I can’t remember much of what I wrote in that post, but TL;DR: the premise is ranking teams based on their similarities to the most successful tournament teams (those that reach the Final Four). The tournament is a different animal and the FFI measures teams in a tournament context and less so on a game-to-game basis like most analytical measures do.

There have been some major overhauls since the original creation of the FFI. The first version was based on where teams ranked nationally in each category (from 1 to 353), but now they’re based on actual percentages, efficiency numbers, etc.

Also, I reduced the time frame greatly of Final Four teams I used to build the weighting system. It just didn’t make sense to use data from 15, 10, or even five years ago anymore. And really there’s one reason. Three-pointers.

It used to be that if you relied too heavily on threes, it was essentially a given that you couldn’t win the national championship. That’s no longer the case. Nationwide, everyone is relying on threes more and more. KenPom measures how teams get their points (3s, 2s, FTs) and breaks them each down into a percentage. Here’s the progression of the national average of three-point distribution percentage:


It no longer makes much sense to knock teams for relying on threes. The national average last year for three-point distribution was 31.4% and the Final Four teams three-point distribution numbers last year were 40.2%, 37%, 35.6%, and 30.4%. Three well above average and one slightly below.

For this first installment, I took the 46 teams seeded 1-11 in the current BracketMatrix and evaluated them. There are seven teams included in the “Irrelevant” section that have equal or better odds than our 46th rated team.


Properly Valued

1. Duke +200 (FFI: 2)

It’s hard to ever find value on Duke and especially not when they have a Beatles-level lineup, but they’ve earned it. It’s interesting to watch their odds because they’ll suffer as a team without Tre Jones. But whenever Jones returns, their stock immediately goes up.

2. Gonzaga +600 (FFI: 4)

Both of their losses are forgivable, but if you’re thinking about a national championship, those were two of their three opportunities to prove they can beat other contenders. They beat Duke in Maui, but watching that game, it felt like the Zags were merely surviving their inexperienced opponent early in their season. Killian Tillie is back and will help the suspect defense, but I’m still not sold on this Gonzaga team being a legitimate contender.

T3. Virginia +650 (FFI: 3)

I’ll certainly understand any skepticism around the Cavs when it comes to March. Unfortunately, they’ve earned that badge with the loss to UMBC. But they’re one of the nation’s best and that’s all that should really matter. Programs are bad in the tournament until they’re not, as evidenced by Villanova’s recent success.

5. Tennessee +850 (FFI: 6)

Tennessee is a great team, but I still find myself questioning if they can really be a contender against the other great teams. They’re not the most versatile offensive team and in a shot-making generation, they don’t make a lot of difficult perimeter shots.

T8. North Carolina +2500 (FFI: 10)

It’s your typical UNC team with some minor differences. One thing this team does better than many of Roy’s teams have done in the past is rebound on the defensive end. They pretty much always attack the glass well on the offensive end, but they’ve done a great job of limiting second chance opportunities for the opponent.

A lot rests on the shoulders of freshman PG Coby White. White’s been much more efficient as the season has gone along, but does have the occasional stinker. He’s much better than Joel Berry was at making plays for others, but the cost of that has been more turnovers.

T12. Purdue +5000 (FFI: 15)

The Boilers are one team that greatly benefited from the changes in the ranking formula because they love to launch from three. They’ve grown a lot in the past month, but we’ll see if they can improve enough defensively to be more than a team with a Sweet 16 ceiling.

T18. Buffalo +6500 (FFI: 21)

Buffalo is a legitimate team with tournament experience and one of the oldest rosters in the country. They’ve won a ton of games away from home this year, with quite a few coming against quality-ish opponents. They’re a threat to make the Final Four, but not enough to beat multiple elite teams and win the whole thing.

T23. Iowa +10000 (FFI: 23)

Iowa’s a good team that can’t be great because they can’t defend a half-decent offense.

T23. LSU +10000 (FFI: 28)

LSU is a team with similar issues to the Hawkeyes. They do have Tre Waters, though, and he has the potential to carry the Tigers further than the rest of the team might deserve. Tough to tell how good this team really is when the best team they’ve beat is Ole Miss (it was on the road) and the best team they’ve even played is Houston.

T23. TCU +10000 (FFI: 17)

They’ve had injuries and transfers all over the place. They’re a good team on both ends, but it’s hard to see them doing much without the services of Jaylen Fisher.

T30. Cincinnati +12500 (FFI: 36)

Speaking of teams whose best win is Ole Miss. A solid team, but they’ve played a terrible schedule.

T30. Louisville +12500 (FFI: 25)

The Cardinals are only getting better because Chris Mack is their coach and that’s what Chris Mack does. Jordan Nwora has gone from occasional contributor last year to one of the best players in the ACC. I could definitely see the Cards rising up the ranking list as the season progresses. They’re improving defensively and one of the things they’re getting docked heavily for right now is their bench minute numbers. But that number appears to be decreasing as Mack starts to sharpen the rotation.

T30. NC State +12500 (FFI: 35)

The Wolfpack seem to be everyone’s go-to team when discussing the merits of the NET ranking system. My take? They’re fine. They’re a tournament-caliber team that’ll probably lose to a 1 or 2 seed the first weekend and it’ll be fine. Stop getting so upset about NC State, internet.

T34. Ole Miss +15000 (FFI: 29)

Kermit Davis is a wizard to get them to this level already, but they’re still far from a legitimate threat to make a deep run.

T34. Washington +15000 (FFI: 31)

I loathe the Pac-12, but at least the Huskies are the best of a terrible bunch. Doesn’t mean they’re good, though. Best win outside of league play is…San Diego.

T39. Arizona St +20000 (FFI: 45)

The Devils have at least beat a couple teams outside of league play, but they’ve also lost to Princeton and Utah at home and got lit up by Vanderbilt.

T39. UCF +20000 (FFI: 34)

I’m not a bracketologist, but I don’t understand why the Knights are in the tournament right now. Their schedule is weak and their landmark victory to this point is a home win over Alabama and their three losses are all to mediocre-to-bad teams.

T39. St. John’s +20000 (FFI: 41)

The offense can be pretty good with a collection of versatile scoring options with a strong top two of Shamorie Ponds and Mustapha Heron. But the trade-off of playing such a small lineup is that the Johnnies are a terrible rebounding team and don’t have any rim protectors.

43. Minnesota +25000 (FFI: 38)

I’ve watched a lot of Minnesota games. Sometimes they’re awesome. Sometimes they’re atrocious.

44. Ohio State +27500 (FFI: 33)

The Buckeyes are on a nosedive right now and need to get things corrected quickly.

T45. Butler +30000 (FFI: 40)

The Bulldogs might be the biggest roller coaster in college basketball.

T45. Saint Louis +30000 (FFI: 46)

The Billies got Dion Wiley back just in time to lose Carte’Are Gordon. The defense is elite. The offense is horrendous.

T52. Seton Hall +40000 (FFI: 37)

Seton Hall is in that perfect Seton Hall range where they are perfectly mediocre.


Slightly Overvalued

T3. Michigan +650 (FFI: 7)

The Wolverines looked unbeatable back in November, but have certainly dropped off a little bit since then. (Note: that sentence was written before they dominated IU in Bloomington) Their schedule is heavily back-loaded and if the past couple years are any indication, that’s a good thing for John Beilein. Michigan has peaked in March recently.

The statistical makeup of the team is nearly identical to last year’s squad that made the championship, despite some big personnel changes. The major exception is that this is only one of two Beilein teams that doesn’t shoot a ton of threes. The only other team that didn’t was back in 2013 when they also went to the national championship game.

7. Kentucky +1500 (FFI: 13)

I gotta say I disagree with the rankings here. The Wildcats are really starting to come along. The obvious flaw is that in this new age of three-point shooting, the Cats lack shooters.

T8. Kansas +2500 (FFI: 11)

It’s hard for me to picture the Jayhawks winning it all. With the loss of Doke for good, they lose their elite rim protector. Now they’re forced to play more four-guard lineups. It’s worked for them in the past, but it worked because their offense could spread other teams out and they could start their own personal three-point parade. That’s not the case with this team.

T12. Virginia Tech +5000 (FFI: 19)

Unfortunately, Chris Clarke is officially out for the season and that puts a lower ceiling on the season. The Hokies can score with the best of them and their backcourt is as good as almost any in the country. On the other end, however, they continue to be lit up like a Christmas tree from the perimeter. That’s a tough way to win big in this era of basketball.

T20. Houston +7500 (FFI: 32)

Kelvin Sampson has done a hell of a job to be 19-1 after losing his two best players from a year ago. They get crushed in the ratings for a soft schedule so far, but they’ve performed well when they’ve played better teams, so take it for what it’s worth. You’d think that they would struggle when they played teams with more size, but they did beat Oregon when Bol Bol was still playing.

T23. Florida State +10000 (FFI: 39)

I’m kind of afraid to say anything about the Noles because they played like this in the ACC last year and then made the Elite 8. I’m just saying it’s usually a good idea to bet against Leonard Hamilton in the tournament.

T23. Kansas State +10000 (FFI: 44)

This is kind of a tough one to gauge because their data set is corrupted from the Dean Wade absence for six games. They dropped from 24 to 50 in KenPom during that stretch and have climbed back to 36 in his four game return. That four game stretch has been road wins at Iowa State and Oklahoma and home wins against TCU and Texas Tech. So, yeah, Wade’s important. I’m confident in saying the Cats will move up the FFI.

T34. Arizona +15000 (FFI: 43)

Their offense is terrible. The end.


Slightly Undervalued

T20. Maryland +7500 (FFI: 12)

The Terps play a ton of young guys, but they’re really talented and experienced PG Anthony Cowan runs the show. Usually young teams struggle on the road, but they’ve blown out three Big Ten foes in their own building. They never had a chance at Michigan State, but few ever do. They’re an intriguing team that doesn’t have many holes.

T23. Mississippi State +10000 (FFI: 14)

The Bulldogs haven’t played well since SEC play started. However, if experienced guards are something you might be interested in, MSU has them in bulk and some rim protectors to boot.

T30. Oklahoma +12500 (FFI: 16)

Lon Kruger’s gotten his defense back from the Buddy Hield years, but the offense is far from it. The Sooners lack efficient scorers.

T34. Indiana +15000 (FFI: 22)

I had something somewhat positive written, but had to edit after the debacle against Michigan. Their season is in a tailspin right now and every time you expect them to bounce back and fight to get things corrected, they just fall further.

T39. Texas +20000 (FFI: 20)

The defense is good, but they still manage to lose a lot of games. They showed they were capable of beating a really good team away from home when they beat UNC, but we haven’t really seen that since then.


Highly Overvalued

T8. Nevada +2500 (FFI: 24)

I wouldn’t count them out, but the biggest difference between this year and last is perimeter shooting. They miss shooters Kendall Stephens and Hallice Cooke to work off of the Martin twins. Jazz Johnson has filled in some of that hole, but Corey Henson has been streaky and Nisre Zouzoua has been a dud after shooting 36% from three at Bryant. And they still miss Lindsey Drew. Drew was out for the NCAA Tournament last year, but not having his ability to set people up is noticeable and pretty much just leaves Cody Martin to do all of that work.

That’s the negative side. But, they’re still 19-1 and in the Top 25 of both offensive and defensive efficiency.

11. Texas Tech +4000 (FFI: 18)

I don’t care how good your defense is, if you can’t score, you can’t win it all.

T12. Auburn +5000 (FFI: 26)

The Tigers need Austin Wiley back, but he won’t solve all of their defensive problems. The Tiger defense is heavily reliant on getting steals and blocking shots, otherwise they’re pretty poor. That’s proven to be an unsuccessful formula in the NCAA Tournament when you pretty much only play teams with good guards.

T12. Villanova +5000 (FFI: 30)

The rankings are based on season stats and that’s why you see Villanova at #30 after a poor non-conference showing (for them). They’ve turned it up in Big East play, but they still have some defensive issues.

T16. Marquette +5500 (FFI: 27)

The Golden Eagles have been all offense the past couple years, but that might actually be their issue right now. They can still shoot it great, but the lack of efficiency and production around the bucket leaves a little to be desired.

T16. Syracuse +5500 (FFI: 42)

Well, Boeheim’s worst teams seem to do the best in March, so maybe that’s the reason for the price.


Highly Undervalued

6. Michigan State +1000 (FFI: 1)

I kept trying to tell people last year over and over that the Spartans were overvalued and that turned out to be true when they beat 14 seed Bucknell by four and then lost to 11 seed Syracuse in the second round.

But this team is the one to bet on right now in all of college basketball. 10-1 and they might be the best team in the country. They’ve gone 7-0 without 15 PPG scorer Josh Langford and that includes four wins over Top 30 KenPom teams, two of those four on the road. That’s the difference between this year’s team and last. They consistently deliver outside of East Lansing.

T18. Iowa State +6500 (FFI: 9)

The Cyclones still aren’t fully healthy, but they fit the mold of being Top 25 on both ends of the floor. The glaring hole for this team is that they don’t rebound well, but they do lessen some of that damage by consistently winning the turnover battle.

They lack star power, but I can’t imagine trying to gameplan against their offense. It’s like porn if your bag is versatility. And that versatility extends to their defense. They don’t play their biggest guys a ton, but they still manage to do a pretty good job of protecting the rim.

22. Wisconsin +8000 (FFI: 8)

The Badgers went through a tough five game stretch to start January, but responded by beating Michigan. Nate Reuvers is quietly becoming another big scoring threat for the offense. If they have three consistent scorers outside of Ethan Happ, you’re looking at a Top 20, Top 15 type of offense to pair with their Top 10 defense.

T23. Nebraska +10000 (FFI: 5)

If you were just judging starting fives, Nebraska is certainly worthy of Top 15 consideration. The problem is that they don’t have – or don’t use – a sixth or seventh man. The offense hasn’t suffered much, but the defense has been declining in performance as the season goes on. A shorter rotation is better in March, but this might be too short.


38. Florida +17500

Analytically good, but they should try winning more games.

T45. Clemson +30000

The offense is one of the worst in the ACC.

T45. Georgetown +30000

The Hoyas lean way too heavily on their freshmen. It’s a good core if Patrick Ewing keeps them together, but this year is not their year.

T45. Murray State +30000

Ja Morant is phenomenal, but the Racers haven’t beat anybody noteworthy. Just making the field solely depends upon the OVC tournament.

T45. Oregon +30000

They’d be a lot more interesting with Bol Bol, obviously.

T52. Alabama +40000

This is Avery Johnson’s best offense he’s had in Tuscaloosa. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it’s still just an average offense.

T52. Baylor +40000

I’d enjoy another Makai Mason tournament moment, but the Bears struggle to score if they don’t get second chances. They’re capable of beating some good teams, but they’re going to have to prove it on the road if they want to make the dance.

2018 CFB Picks: Championship Week

Georgia (+13.5) over Alabama – 3u
Georgia +415 – 0.5u

I don’t feel great about it, but their seasons don’t suggest this much difference outside of how each of them played at LSU. The line is begging you to take Alabama.

If there’s a “weakness” anywhere its Georgia’s run defense. It’s a concern, but the Tide RB’s really haven’t hit that many home runs this year. They’ve been fairly average when they’ve played really good defenses. The Tide have blown out everybody this year, but they haven’t played a team as balanced on both sides of the ball as Georgia.

Every relevant analytical power ranking will tell you that Georgia is a Top 3 team. Out of principle, you should be taking them with this many points in any scenario. Alabama may be one of the greatest teams ever, but they haven’t had to prove it against an elite team yet.

Fresno State (+3, -120) over BOISE STATE – 2u
Fresno +120 – 1u

I’m gonna be honest, this makes me wildly uncomfortable. I leaned toward Boise State three weeks ago when this game happened. But the line was five points different. Yes, it’s across zero, I know. Boise ended up winning that game, but it was far from convincing.

At this point, the fear of playing on the blue turf has to be wearing off for Fresno. This will be their third trip to Boise in less than a calendar year. I think that matters. The Broncos have one of the biggest home field advantages in CFB, but that diminishes with this much repetition.

Fresno has to still be upset with how that game went three weeks ago. They held the lead heading into the fourth quarter and let it slip away. They’ve been the better team this year. It helps that Boise’s defense has been pretty well beat up the past few weeks.

CAL (+3, +105) over Stanford – 2u
Cal +150 – 1u

I took Cal at +2 two weeks ago when this was originally scheduled. Now I get an additional key point and I’m not giving juice based on…Stanford barely escaping a shootout with UCLA and Cal beating Colorado by two scores. I will say the Colorado game was closer than the score indicated, but Cal’s just done whatever it takes to win this year. This game feels like it just means a lot more to the Bears. Stanford has been a disappointment all year, especially defensively, and I’d expect Cal to pull everything out of the playbook to win this one.

Utah (+5.5) over Washington – 2u
Utah +185 – 1u

I’ll start by saying that Washington won at Utah 21-7 back in September. It certainly gives one pause, but that was a couple months ago and the Utes bottomed out in September. Since then, they’ve only played one bad game and that was the game Tyler Huntley broke his collar bone at Arizona State. Jason Shelley was bad in relief, but has been playing at a similar level to Huntley as a starter.

There really hasn’t been much separation between the two teams the past couple months. At the most, you’d say UW should be favored by a point or two. The difference between Huntley and Shelley isn’t much, if any, and certainly doesn’t justify the Utes being close to touchdown dogs. Shelley may struggle to throw the ball against UW’s elite pass defense, but his ability to tuck it and run might be the difference in what should be a low scoring game.

And maybe most importantly, it’s never a bad idea to take Kyle Whittingham as an underdog. The Utes are 13-3-1 ATS as a dog the last five years.

YTD: 69-63 (+8.9u)




2018 CFB Picks: Week 10

Picks were posted on Monday night, but thought I’d add a little here.

5 Units

OLE MISS (pick) over South Carolina

This is the battle of the supremely average SEC teams, but I’m of the opinion Ole Miss is slightly less average (better) than South Carolina, they’re at home, and they’re coming off a bye.

I’m counting on the Ole Miss offense to put up a bunch of points. They’re among the best in the country – going for 70+ on two occasions this year – and the only times they’ve been held under 37 points have come against Top 20 defenses. USC ranks 54th, according to S&P+. They gave up 490 yards to Missouri and 458 to Texas A&M.

The secondary for the Gamecocks has several guys with injuries and they’re going against one of the best WR corps in the nation. Maybe the best feature of USC’s entire team is that they haven’t given up big plays in the pass game. With a weakened secondary going against an explosive Ole Miss team, it could be a recipe for more deep balls for the Rebels.

On the other side of the ball, South Carolina has been pretty blah since the first few weeks of the season. They haven’t put up 400 yards of offense in a game since Week 4.

They haven’t shown a propensity for the big plays like Ole Miss. If they get themselves in a shootout with the Rebels, I don’t think they can string together a bunch of long drives to keep pace without making mistakes. The Cocks are 104th in turnover margin this year, while Ole Miss is 21st.

And I grant you that the Ole Miss is a terrible defensive team, but Tennessee is nearly as bad and USC was only able to put up 27 points last week at home, coming off of a bye.

4 Units

Air Force (+7) over ARMY

Everyone knows I’m an Army guy, but I think it’s Air Force here who’s better equipped to win the battle of the option (or at least more equipped to cover the spread).

The Air Force defense is 18th against the run, while Army comes in at 93rd, according to S&P+. And the Falcons have been much more battle tested. Every offense they’ve played so far this year is in the Top 75 in rushing efficiency, with the exception of FCS Stony Brook. Army, on the other hand, has faced just one opponent in the Top 75 all year.

The only offenses to have a decent amount of success against Air Force this year have done it through the air. Army has thrown it 68 times all year.

Of course there’s a lot of familiarity between the two and that should help out the Army run defense, but familiarity has favored the Falcons in this matchup. They’ve won 18 of the last 21 against Army and covered 16 of them.

3 Units


Unfortunately for me, but good for you, you can get the Beavs at +16.5 right now thanks to JT Daniels’ injury status being upgraded.

This is mostly a fade against USC. Their average performance away from home the past two years is that of, well…an average FBS team. When they’re at the Coliseum, they play like a Top 25-30 team. I thought they had turned a corner a couple weeks ago and took them at Utah, but there doors were blown off by much more than the 41-28 score indicated and Daniels was bad in the game.

It helps that a young Oregon State team under first year coach Jonathan Smith was able to break through with their first Pac-12 victory in a dramatic comeback at Colorado. Three of the last four times USC has made the trip up to Corvallis, the Beavs have walked away with outright victories. Twice they were more than two touchdown dogs.

NORTHWESTERN (+9.5) over Notre Dame

I don’t know the exact figure, but I’m sure you’ve heard it/can find it if you try hard enough, but ND’s record ATS after Navy is bad.

They’re also coming back from a long road trip out to San Diego and now have to go on the road again. Evanston doesn’t provide the most intimidating of environments typically, but I’m sure Ryan Field will be alive with a night kick and the Irish in the stadium. Here’s hoping the majority of the crowd is wearing purple.

And it helps that it’s also November. Northwestern is an annual “grower”, frequently peaking as the season comes to an end. They’re 12-4 ATS in their last 16 November games.

I don’t know how much the Wildcats can score, but I do think they can slow down the Ian Book show. NW has only given up 300+ on one occasion this year and it took 51 attempts to get those 329 yards.

2 Units

BAYLOR (+8) over Oklahoma State

Letdown spot for the Pokes and Baylor should be at their best after a drubbing to West Virginia last Thursday and the need for two more wins to reach bowl eligibility, a goal I imagine is pretty important for them after last year.

VIRGINIA TECH (+2) over Boston College

Bounceback week for the Hokies after last week’s debacle. On the other side, BC is coming off a big win in the Red Bandana game and they’ve been underwhelming on the road this year.

Ohio (pick) over WESTERN MICHIGAN

The Broncos have been giving up big plays all year and Ohio might be the most explosive offense in the league. It’s Solich time.

LOUISIANA MONROE (+7.5) over Georgia Southern

Monroe had a disappointing start, but they should be in prime form after two wins and a bye week to prepare for the GSU option attack.

Southern is coming off the biggest win the program has had in a few years and next week they’ve got a matchup with their other big Sun Belt East foe in Troy. Dangerous spot for the Eagles.

SMU (+13) over Houston

Houston’s terrifying, but SMU is getting better as the season progresses under Sonny Dykes. They’ve had some really good defensive performances the past month. The run game has hit the skids for the Mustangs, but Ben Hicks has been prolific lately and pass defense is where you can hurt the Cougs. Just have a feeling SMU keeps it close with a bowl within reach and a night home game against one of the best teams in the league.

2018 CFB Week 1 Picks

It’s the first week, so I’m not going to get too crazy here. All picks are just for a unit. My best advice I can give you is to not shoot your wad the first couple of weeks of the season.


UCONN (+24) over UCF

As much as anything, this is a bet on coaching. That’s not necessarily a slight against Josh Heupel, but his OC history suggests the Knights might start slow as do some other situations.

The big fear you have if you’re on the Huskies here is that they’re just going to get blown out of their own stadium because UCF is scoring every possession. However, Heupel was the OC the last two years at Mizzou and Utah State for one year before that. The Tigers lit it up last year in the opener, but that was against 3-8 FCS team Missouri State team that gave up 38 PPG. The next three games – all at home – Mizzou only managed 10 PPG. The year before they started with an 11-point outing. In his one year at USU, the Aggies started the first three games averaging 14 PPG, which included a 12-point effort against Southern Utah.

Of course Heupel has Mackenzie Milton at QB to help the situation this year, but it’s still a new offense to Milton and Heupel had Drew Lock to work with last year, too. Milton is also replacing two of his big playmakers at WR/TE.

There’s also the fact that we have no idea what Heupel can do as a HC. It was a bit of a curious hire and he’s replacing Scott Frost, who couldn’t possibly have done a better job. If you look at Group of 5 teams trying to replace big-time coaches last year, it was quite a drop-off.

  • PJ Fleck went 13-1 in 2016 at WMU, who went 6-6 last year under Tim Lester
  • Tom Herman went 22-5 in two years at Houston, who went 7-5 last year under Major Applewhite
  • Jeff Brohm went 22-5 his last two years at WKU, who went 6-7 last year under Mike Sanford

So yeah, I’m betting against UCF being nearly as dominant as they were last year with the change in coaching and the loss of quite a bit of NFL talent. I also believe Randy Edsall is a really good coach and will field a more competitive UConn team this year. I think the line is a rollover from last year and less of a projection for this year.

New Mexico State (+21.5) over MINNESOTA

This line has predictably jumped after NMSU looked pretty miserable in Week 0 against Wyoming at home. Gotta be honest, doesn’t really bother me that much. For one, I really liked Wyoming heading into the season. Secondly, I think it’s an advantage for NMSU to have a game under their belt. Their flaws were exposed and now they have tangible things to work on this week. And finally, of the four teams that lost in Week 0 last year, three of them won the next game. I realize that’s kind of a meaningless stat without context, but those three teams that bounced back with a win were Oregon State, Rice, and San Jose State. Here’s context: THOSE THREE TEAMS COMBINED FOR A TOTAL OF FOUR WINS LAST YEAR AND THREE OF THEM WERE THE GAME AFTER WEEK ZERO.

So yeah, I think it’s an advantage for NMSU.

Also an advantage, Minnesota is starting a preferred walk-on at QB, who also happens to be a true freshman. And I realize that Zack Annexstad had scholarship offers to play at mediocre programs, but at the end of the day he’s still a two-star true freshman starting at QB for a Big Ten team. Not good. He’s going up against a veteran defense that can apply a lot of pressure.

NMSU might only need to score a single touchdown to cover this game.

Florida Atlantic (+21) over OKLAHOMA

Obviously I’m pretty high on the Owls this year. I won’t rehash everything again, but with 10 starters back you have to think the Owls will be ready to go against Kyler Murray in his first start in Norman.

On the other side of the ball, RB Devin Singletary (1,920 rushing yards, 32 rushing TDs) could be a big problem for a Sooner D that had a lot of holes last year. FAU has to start a new QB, but all their options have a ton of talent. Jason Driskel was decent last year, but he wasn’t asked to really do all that much.


I would think this would be a pretty low-scoring game. Arizona State has the potential to be explosive, but UTSA was a Top 20 defense nationally last year. The Roadrunners have a lot to replace offensively, but they weren’t good to begin with. Last year they won at Baylor. The year before they nearly beat this Sun Devil team in the Alamodome. Since Frank Wilson took over in San Antonio, UTSA has only lost by more than two touchdowns on one occasion.

And, yes, I’m going to continue to bet against ASU until Herm proves he has any idea what he’s doing as a college HC.

Central Michigan (+17) over KENTUCKY

CMU always seems undervalued and matchup-wise I think RB Jonathan Ward versus an atrocious Wildcat run defense could be big for the Chips. Benny Snell is probably going to be the majority of the UK offense early on, but CMU returns six of their front seven and should be able to at least slow Snell down.

But the real reason for this play: Kentucky rarely blows anybody out, especially early in the season. Last year they beat Southern Miss by 7, EMU by 4, and EKU by 11. In 2016, they lost to Southern Miss. They did beat NMSU by 20, but it was a 7-point game headed to the 4th. In 2015, they beat ULL and EKU by 7 each.

Combine that trait with a Week 2 game looming in Gainesville against the Gators and there’s some upset potential here.

North Carolina A&T (+7.5) over EAST CAROLINA

I talked about this game a little bit in the ECU season preview, but I’ll rehash a bit here. NC A&T was 12-0 last year, including a win over FBS opponent Charlotte, who rated pretty similar to ECU in power rankings. ECU was 3-9 last year and that included a 20-point beating they suffered to James Madison in Week 1. They improved offensively as the season went on, but the Pirates lose both their QBs and three of their four top WRs. They were horrendous in every single facet of the game defensively. They have a new DC who may help, but he has a lot of holes that need patched up.

A&T also has the advantage of already playing a game. They opened the season last week with a neutral-site win over FCS #6 Jacksonville State (the Aggies opened at #14 themselves). A&T is returning their QB, RB, and quite a few playmakers on defense. They have a new HC in Sam Washington, but he’d been the DC here for six years.

Although the two play in different subdivisions, they rated about the same in the Sagarin ratings last year. ECU returns only 49% of their overall production this year and more than half of that is from a wretched defense. It doesn’t include key parts of the passing game, which the Pirates thrive on. I think the offense will be slow coming out of the gates and it’ll allow the Aggies to keep pace on Saturday.


WESTERN MICHIGAN (+6) over Syracuse

I really don’t think there’s a ton of separation between the two teams and it’s a tricky game for the Orange.

San Diego State (+14) over STANFORD

I mean, the Aztecs did beat them last year. I like the Cardinal this year, though.

Akron (+26) over NEBRASKA

Seems like so many points for a team that went 4-8 last year and is starting a true frosh at QB. I just can’t put my faith in an Akron team that will likely be down to start the year and going into what should be a wild environment in Lincoln.

Kent State (+16.5) over ILLINOIS

Illinois stinks and probably shouldn’t give this many points to anybody, but Kent has a lot to figure out.

FIU (+11) over Indiana

Dangerous game for IU, who has a lot of question marks at skill positions and needs to replace some defensive studs. However, FIU has to replace a ton on defense.

Maryland (+13.5) over Texas

If not for the black cloud around the program, I’d probably take it. After all, the Terps won in Austin last year before the QB position went to hell.


Should be a great game to watch if you wanna see points.

WYOMING (pick) over Washington State

It opened at +4, but is to the point now where the Cowboys are even favored in some places. No longer think there’s any value to the Wyoming side.

HAWAII (+10) over Navy

I liked it when it was 14. Once again, all value lost after a stellar Week 0 performance by Hawaii.

Miami FL (-3) over LSU

I think LSU is gonna suck, but something about Miami still scares me.

2018 Masters Picks and Props

I’ll admit it: might have gotten a little crazy with the number of guys I’m playing this year. All plays are in the parenthesis and you can bet all of the longshots have a little sprinkled on them to win the whole damn show. What a treat this weekend is going to be.

Picks: Individual Finishes

Dustin Johnson (Top 5: +250 / To Win: +1200)

DJ isn’t as hot as he was coming into Augusta last year (3 straight wins), but he’s only finished outside the Top 20 in one stroke play event in the past 9 months. Remember, he headed into last year as the favorite at +500. His last two outings at the Masters he finished T6 and T4. He’s still the #1 ranked player in the world.

Justin Rose (Top 5: +300 / To Win: +1500)

If you don’t bet on Justin Rose at the Masters, you’re an idiot. He hasn’t finished outside the Top 25 in his last seven outings here and he’s finished in the Top 10 four times in that stretch. He’s also got five Top 10s in seven events played this season. Don’t be an idiot.

Jason Day (Top 5: +400 / To Win: +2000)

He’s been a little shaky lately, but he did win a tournament a couple months ago. Also, he might have the most consistent career of this generation’s top players when it comes to major competition. He’s played in 29 and finished in the Top 10 nearly half the time.

Paul Casey (Top 5: +500 / To Win: +2800)

Three straight Top 10s at Augusta for Paul. The odds keep dropping every year, but I’ll keep taking him. He’s second on tour tee-to-green, which is a key number in this tournament. He won the Valspar a month ago and has seven Top 20s in eight events this season.

Matt Kuchar (Top 5: +1000 / To Win: +5000)

Kuch hasn’t lit the world on fire this season, but he plays as much as anybody and he might be hitting his stride at the right time, finishing in the Top 10 the past couple weeks. He’s compiled four Top 10s, including three Top 5s, in his last six outings at the Masters. He went T4, T16, 2nd, T9 in the majors last year.

Tommy Fleetwood (Top 10: +350 / Top 5: +800)

Tommy doesn’t have much of a track record on ANGC – one MC – but he’s 5th on tour tee-to-green. He’s up to 12th now in the world rankings. He got a win early in the season and has added two other Top 5s since then and hasn’t finished a tournament outside the Top 40. Shades of Danny Willett in 2016 here.

Adam Scott (Top 10: +600 / Top 5: +1300)

Scott hasn’t done anything really noteworthy this season, but these are pretty good odds for a former champion that has four Top 10s in his last seven trips to Augusta. He hasn’t missed a cut here since ’09. Scott was in a somewhat similar form last year, missing the cut in Houston the week before, but he still finished T9 with a pair of 69s on Friday and Saturday.

Brian Harman (Top 10: +650 / Top 5: +1400)

First good news about Harman: he’s a lefty. They’ve won 6 of the last 15 Masters. He’s only played here once and he missed the cut, but it’s impossible to ignore a guy at these numbers that has seven Top 10 finishes in 11 events this season. He did have a T2 in the US Open last year and a T13 in the PGA Championship.

Kevin Chappell (Top 20: +400 / Top 10: +900)

Chappell’s got a bit of a back issue, but I’ll still take a flyer. He ranks 8th tee-to-green, finished T7 here last year, and has been rock solid for four months now.

Daniel Berger (Top 20: +400 / Top 10: +900)

He’s gone T10 and T27 in his first two Masters runs. He’s made six Top 25s in 10 events this year. That’s not the most impressive number in the world, but remember that this field is about half the size of a typical field. I like his consistency.

Cameron Smith (Top 20: +500 / Top 10: +1150)

He’s 1-for-1 in made cuts here. He’s got four Top 10s on the season. He’s decent tee-to-green, but among the best in the world around the green. That could elevate him around the top of the leaderboard this week if he strikes it well.

Ryan Moore (Top 20: +500 / Top 10: +1150)

Form is tough to pinpoint with Moore. He’s had three Top 10s and two missed cuts in his past six events. More importantly with Moore: he’s finished in the Top 15 of the Masters four times in nine tries.

Adam Hadwin (Top 20: +600 / Top 10: +1350)

Hasn’t missed a cut since August and hasn’t missed a Top 20 in two months. He’s 21st tee-to-green on tour and he was T36 in his Masters debut last year.

Prop Bets

Hole in One – Round 4 +137

I’ve wrote about this every year. If there is going to be a Hole-in-One, it’s going to be on 16, and it’s going to be on Sunday. Two years ago, there was three of them in the matter of like 45 minutes.

Top Former Winner – Phil Mickelson +450

This is just my way to bet on Phil. I don’t love his odds to win the tournament, but here he really only has to win a competition of, realistically, about eight guys.

Will there be a playoff? – Yes +300

There’s absolutely no way to handicap this, it’s a total roll of the dice. However, it’s been a winner three of the past six years and it’s fun. Root for fun.

Top Amateur Player – Doug Ghim +330

Joaquin Niemann is the favorite here and the top ranked amateur in the world, but I like the cut of Ghim’s jib. He’s currently 4th in the WAGR and finished runner-up in the 2017 US Amateur. But why I really like him: he’s 8-0 as a member of Team USA in international competition.

2018 Power Ratings By Region: West

I’m gonna do this blog because I love doing this blog and giving my opinion on every team, but if you’d like picks, upset potential, fade material, please visit http://spreadinvestor.com/march-madness-sheet/

It’s $9.99. That’s like two beers at the bar, one if you’re on the coast. The picks are included there, but trust me, the spreadsheet/NFW list/historical trends is where the value is really at. I’m never going tout – although the @mlparlays Venmo is open – but this is a once a year thing that myself, @Return_of_RB, @THold42, and @spreadinvestor have put a lot of time into. For the OGs, you’ve gotten free material for three years now. This is a small ask. As always, thanks for reading.


16. Texas Southern (16 seed / -97.10)

They went 0-13 against non-SWAC teams, so it’s safe to say they’re not going to pull off the historic upset.

15. Lipscomb (15 seed / -68.20)

Lipscomb is a lot of fun and they love to play fast, but getting into a track meet with UNC is probably not going to end well for them.

14. UNC Greensboro (13 seed / 1.07)

Greensboro can absolutely lock people up, but their upset potential took a blow when they were given the underseeded Zags.

13. South Dakota State (12 seed / 19.97)

The Jackrabbits are another popular upset pick with almost 1 out of 4 brackets having SDSU knock off Ohio State. Daum is always the focal point of the offense, but if they are going to win, it’s the supporting cast that needs to catch fire.

12. Providence (10 seed / 23.22)

Ed Cooley is fun, I just wish his team wasn’t always itching for a rock fight. But if the Friars can get their wish the first weekend, they’re a sneaky underdog to make the Sweet 16.

11. Montana (14 seed / 25.30)

Montana is underseeded here, but Michigan is probably the worst case 3 seed scenario for them. They’re going to have a real difficult time trying to bottle up the Wolverine ball screen action and when Beilein finds a weakness, he does not relent. While it’s not a great matchup for the Grizz, they can stick in it because, well, they’re just a good basketball team.

10. San Diego State (11 seed / 52.82)

The Aztecs enter the tournament on a tear, but of course the committee matches them up with another team that’s been playing at a really high level. This team is fairly similar to the Steve Fisher coached SDSU teams, but one big difference is that they’ve played at a quicker pace. They’ve got some offensive punch as well. Tough pod for them, though.

9. Missouri (8 seed / 66.48)

I was a big Mizzou supporter all year, but they just have way too much instability going on right now. You can’t NOT play Michael Porter if he wants to play, but I don’t really like the idea of inserting a guy who hasn’t played all year and he’s going to suddenly account for 36% of the possessions he’s on the floor.

8. Florida State (9 seed / 66.55)

Can’t remember the last time I’ve been impressed by a Leonard Hamilton team in a tournament game. It’s been a while.

7. Xavier (1 seed / 68.95)

There’s a lot of red flags with X’s defensive profile. There’s also the red flag of: JP Macura is the second-best player. On the other hand, if it’s a close game I’d like to be on Trevon Bluiett’s side, please.

6. Houston (6 seed / 70.44)

Ended the season on a great run, but so did the other three teams in their pod.  They don’t have many holes, but they’re definitely not as efficient as you’d like inside the three-point line. They’re really a team you’d like to get behind, but the draw was very unfortunate.

5. Texas A&M (7 seed / 71.40)

A&M was disappointing, but they did have a great non-conference and they are still an elite defensive squad. Guard play is a big question mark after some midseason attrition, but they can hang with UNC if they’re able to get past pesky Providence.

4. North Carolina (2 seed / 82.08)

I doubted the Heels last year and they rubbed it in my face. And it’s hard to ever bet against Roy Williams, who by the numbers is the best tournament coach in college basketball. But it’s also important to point out the Heels were real close to being bounced out in the first weekend last year. Their profile is very similar to last year – albeit a little worse defensively – but I still just have a hard time rolling with a team that isn’t very efficient from the floor.

3. Ohio State (5 seed / 82.82)

Ohio State’s been overachieving all year, so it’s not surprising to see so many people dismiss them so quickly. Just at least keep in mind that they were 15-1 against Big Ten teams not named Penn State, they have an All-American, Chris Holtmann, and are Top 26 on both ends of the floor. They did not catch a break with having to go to Boise and likely playing Gonzaga, though.

2. Michigan (3 seed / 83.00)

I wouldn’t expect Michigan to have a big dropoff from the level they were playing at in the Big Ten Tournament. It wasn’t like they just rode some hot shooting streak to the title, they’ve just grown a lot as team, which is what a John Beilein team does. With that said, it’s not going to be an easy road. They open with an underseeded Montana, will likely face an underseeded Houston, and will more than likely follow that up with two Top 10 teams. And that’s just to reach San Antonio.

1. Gonzaga (4 seed / 91.14)

The Zags are really good again, but I do still question if they’re good enough defending the perimeter. Their numbers have started to look a lot better in that area, but you have to wonder if that will hold up now that they’re out of the WCC again.


2018 Power Ratings By Region: Midwest

I’m gonna do this blog because I love doing this blog and giving my opinion on every team, but if you’d like picks, upset potential, fade material, please visit http://spreadinvestor.com/march-madness-sheet/

It’s $9.99. That’s like two beers at the bar, one if you’re on the coast. The picks are included there, but trust me, the spreadsheet/NFW list/historical trends is where the value is really at. I’m never going tout – although the @mlparlays Venmo is open – but this is a once a year thing that myself, @Return_of_RB, @THold42, and @spreadinvestor have put a lot of time into. For the OGs, you’ve gotten free material for three years now. This is a small ask. As always, thanks for reading.


17. Iona (15 seed / -30.27)

It’s tough to count out Iona because they’ve been in the tournament before and Tim Cluess is great, but Duke is a tall task.

16. Charleston (13 seed / -13.70)

The Cougars are an experienced, tough bunch and they’ll be a tough matchup for an Auburn team that seems to fading to the finish.

15. Penn (16 seed / -8.36)

Penn’s probably underseeded, but it’s not some great injustice. It’s kind of what you deserve if you’re only going to play one high-major team a year. I think their chances of pulling the first 16 over 1 upset ever have been greatly exaggerated. You’ve gotta score if you’re gonna beat Kansas.

14. Bucknell (14 seed / 8.21)

Tough draw for Bucknell, but they’re an experienced team that was in the tournament – and played well – just a year ago. Don’t think they’ll be phased by the moment, but not sure they have the horses to stop MSU.

13. Rhode Island (7 seed / 28.02)

Last year, Rhody was an 11 seed and I didn’t consider picking against them for a second. This year they’re a 7 and they’re playing Twitter’s favorite punching bag and I’m real hesitant to take the Rams. Weird things happen in this sport all the time, but a senior-laden group getting beat by 30 (they were favored by 14) on senior night is a major red flag.

12. NC State (9 seed / 29.03)

Kevin Keatts did a great job with this group and they had some big wins, but with that defense I think it’s tough to believe they can win more than a game. Especially if that second game is against Kansas in the state of Kansas.

11. Arizona State (11 seed / 32.60)

I despise their existence in this tournament and I hope they’re losing as you read this. All due respect.

10. Syracuse (11 seed / 38.06)

Ditto. On a related note, Middle Tennessee destroyed a very good Vermont team last night.

9. New Mexico State (12 seed / 41.15)

A lot of upset buzz around the Aggies this year. They’ve got some high-level athletes, tournament experience, and they face a Clemson team that seems pretty vulnerable. I think the problem for NMSU is that they’re not a team that makes a bunch of jumpers. They pretty much have to rebound well to win and that gets a lot more difficult when you no longer have that athletic advantage over the competition.

8. TCU (6 seed / 44.14)

They can win a game, but their chances of winning two went out the window when Jaylen Fisher got hurt two months ago.

7. Oklahoma (10 seed / 46.27)

Has to be the most publicized 10 seed of all-time.

6. Auburn (4 seed / 52.50)

I normally would probably dismiss the Tigers, but the other top team in their pod – Clemson – is also scuffling. I do think Sweet 16 is the ceiling, though.

5. Seton Hall (8 seed / 59.00)

Seton Hall is maddening to me. I keep waiting for them to play like a team that has a boatload of experience, but it was a disappointing Big East season. I will say that it might benefit them to get out of their league and play some teams that don’t know them as well. They beat Texas Tech and won at Louisville in non-conference.

4. Clemson (5 seed / 76.24)

They maintained for a while without Donte Grantham, but they appear to be running on fumes at this point. But the Sweet 16 is still possible for this team and that would still be a great year for the program.

3. Kansas (1 seed / 91.09)

My only futures bet from the season was on Kansas, so I was extremely pleased to see their draw. They get the first two rounds in Kansas and the 4 and 5 seeds in their half of the region are overachievers who have been scuffling due in part to significant injuries. Nothing’s a given in the tournament, but they’ve got a great set-up for the first three rounds. After that, you’re always going to have to beat quality competition.

2. Michigan State (3 seed / 94.98)

I like to consider myself leader of the Sparty doubter bandwagon. There aren’t many of us. Probably because we’re on the opposite side of a bunch of future NBA players and one of the greatest tournament coaches of all-time. Not an easy side to be on. But sometimes I feel like the only one that notices how poorly MSU has played against the few amount of good teams they’ve played this year. I also don’t like the fact that they only play their best lineup when forced by foul trouble. With that said, they’ve basically been gifted an appearance in the second weekend and they have the most underrated point guard on their roster.

1. Duke (2 seed / 110.96)

If it’s possible, I feel like a really good Duke team isn’t being talked about enough. The zone has been great for them. They went from having a suspect defense to one of the best in the country. They have the third rated offense. They have a ton of NBA guys. They have a 5x national champion coach. What’s not to like?

Oh, and as it stands, only three teams have ever been rated higher than the Blue Devils and they all won the title.


2018 Power Ratings By Region: South

I’m gonna do this blog because I love doing this blog and giving my opinion on every team, but if you’d like picks, upset potential, fade material, please visit http://spreadinvestor.com/march-madness-sheet/

It’s $9.99. That’s like two beers at the bar, one if you’re on the coast. The picks are included there, but trust me, the spreadsheet/NFW list/historical trends is where the value is really at. I’m never going tout – although the @mlparlays Venmo is open – but this is a once a year thing that myself, @Return_of_RB, @THold42, and @spreadinvestor have put a lot of time into. For the OGs, you’ve gotten free material for three years now. This is a small ask. As always, thanks for reading.


Ranked in order of their MLP Final Four ranking. Number in parenthesis is their score.

16. UMBC (16 seed / -71.48)

Things could get fun if UMBC is able to give Virginia a game for a while late Friday night and the nation discovers KJ Maura.

15. Wright State (14 seed / -28.08)

It’s not often that a team takes off when they lose one of their best scorers, but the Raiders did just that after Justin Mitchell left the team in January. Offense isn’t the calling card for Scott Nagy’s group, but he’s molded them into the best defense he’s ever had. Nagy is an extremely experienced 51-year old head coach, already in his 23rd year at that level. He took South Dakota State to the dance three times in his last five years there after transitioning them from D-2.

14. Georgia State (15 seed / 12.53)

Ron Hunter’s back. That’s fun. He brings with him our second-highest ranked 15 seed ever. Cincinnati’s going to make it a grind, but it could be interesting.

13. Buffalo (13 seed / 30.88)

Buffalo and their upset potential is going way under the radar because the country is currently enamored with DeAndre Ayton. That seems unwise. The Bulls can really score and they’re more athletic than your typical mid-major.

12. Davidson (12 seed / 39.09)

Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure had the NCAA Tournament resumes all along, but Davidson was just as good of a team all along and earned their bid the hard way. I don’t know that they have the horses to really challenge Kentucky, but it helps if Jarred Vanderbilt doesn’t play.

11. Kansas State (9 seed / 47.47)

K-State is kind of a milk toast team normally, but that’s especially true if Dean Wade isn’t healthy. Bruce Weber is a good coach, but it’s been a while since his teams have done anything significant in March.

10. Loyola Chicago (11 seed / 55.40)

The Ramblers are rated the highest among the 11 seeds, which is due to them being so great defensively. And the committee did them a big favor by giving them the 6 seed that really struggles to score at times.

9. Nevada (7 seed / 56.97)

Nevada stock is at an all-time low, but I think there’s still reason to buy. The Lindsey Drew loss has hurt, but they’re still the best offense on their half of the region. The San Diego State blowout was humbling, hopefully it helps the Pack refocus and not go the other way and crumble.

8. Miami Florida (6 seed / 59.54)

This would be the 6 seed that struggles to score. It doesn’t help that Bruce Brown is still unexpected to play in the opener. With that said, they did score 91 in a win at North Carolina two weeks ago so…

7. Creighton (8 seed / 60.20)

Creighton can rack up the points and I think a potentially hampered Kansas State is a pretty good draw for them because the Wildcat offense isn’t going hurt them too bad. Don’t think they have what it takes to take out Virginia, however.

6. Texas (10 seed / 64.65)

No offense to Texas, but I’ve seen enough Texas basketball this season. I can’t watch Dylan Osetkowski anymore. I just can’t.

5. Tennessee (3 seed / 68.97)

The Vols are probably one of the five or so most physically imposing teams in the country, but they might actually rank third or fourth just in this region. That’s well known, as is their elite-ness defensively. But the underrated part about beating Tennessee is shutting their water off from three.

4. Arizona (4 seed / 71.75)

If I had Zona stock, I’d sell it. They played one KenPom Top 25 team all year and lost by 25. They’re a below average 4 seed that’s getting 10-1 odds to win it all. It’s outrageous. If I’m wrong, you can rub it in my face.

3. Kentucky (5 seed / 74.20)

Kentucky’s definitely trending in the right direction, but Vanderbilt’s potential absence is a big deal for them and it’s tough to ride a horse to win it all if you think they have a semi-decent chance of losing their first game.

2. Cincinnati (2 seed / 82.98)

Do I think Cincinnati is going to the Final Four? No. But it’s crazy to me not one of the thousand national media guys out there aren’t picking them to go to San Antonio. If you’re looking for a semi-safe contrarian play in a big bracket pool, I’d put the Bearcats to make it out of the South.

1. Virginia (1 seed / 97.80)

The Cavs just have terrible injury luck almost every year. I don’t think De’Andre Hunter’s absence is a deal breaker for UVA, but it certainly doesn’t help matters. He’s a next-level type of athlete on a team that doesn’t have very many. But they’re still going to be an elite defense, they’re still going to be able to shoot, they’re still going to be able to take care of the ball and control the game. Hunter’s a nice player, but he ranked 4th on the team in points, 4th in rebounds, 6th in assists, 6th in blocks, and 5th in steals. He played less than half of the minutes for the Cavs this year. If you’re selling because Hunter’s out, I’m inclined to believe that you were just looking for a reason to do it anyway because you probably doubted UVA all year and were just forced to accept their greatness because all they did was keep winning in the deepest conference in the league.



CBB Picks: 3/3

Kentucky (+6) over FLORIDA

SETON HALL (-2) over Butler

LSU (-1.5) over Mississippi State

Boston College (+9) over FLORIDA STATE

KANSAS STATE (-2.5) over Baylor

LOUISIANA MONROE (-6.5) over Arkansas State

TEXAS TECH (-4.5) over TCU

NC STATE (-1.5) over Louisville

YALE (-2) over Princeton

DARTMOUTH (-1) over Cornell

GEORGE MASON (+1.5) over Richmond

UAB (+1) over Western Kentucky

UTAH STATE (pick) over UNLV

Loyola Marymount (+11.5) over Gonzaga – 1H

San Francisco (-3) over Pacific

Delaware (+1) over Elon


YTD: 127-106 (+8.5u)