Season Total Tracker: After Week 2

5*

TCU (over 7.5) beats Arkansas (under 6.5, 1*) 28-7

I didn’t have big expectations for Arkansas heading into the season, but either way, a road win against an SEC team is never easy. But I appreciated the Frog D thoroughly dominating the Hog O and it was never a sweat.

HOWEVAH, one thing I was counting on this year was Kenny Hill being better at quarterback. It’s only two games, but…he still kinda sucks. The running game has been fruitful, but they still don’t have a go-to receiver. It’s hard to complain too much about a team that’s up 91-7 on the season and has another blowout looming, but still.

4*

Oregon (over 8) beats Nebraska (under 7, 2*) 42-35

I was ready to cash the ticket when the Ducks went into half 42-14. Pop the champagne, light the stogies, this puppy is already over. All I have to do now is hope they win the natty and cash that +10500 ticket.

Losing the second half 21-0 and nearly blowing the game entirely was less fun.

But a win’s a win and the show goes on. The offense still put up 1,000 yards. The defense still looks a hell of a lot better than last year. We’re still in the soft part of the schedule.

Vandy (under 6) beats Alabama A&M 42-0

Whatever. You expect that.

But if they beat K-State, I might start panicking a little bit.

3*

Georgia (over 8.5) beats Notre Dame (over 8) 20-19

Georgia is right on pace for 9 or 10 wins. Notre Dame loses a close game. Brian Kelly is being an unnecessary asshole. Pretty much par for the course.

If Notre Dame doesn’t beat BC this weekend, it’s over.

Central Michigan (over 6.5) beats Kansas (over 3, 1*) 45-27

I’d be lying if I said there wasn’t some real concern in the MLP household after it took the Chips 3 OTs to take care of Rhode Island at home. The same Rhode Island that has gone 16-74 since 2009.

But we are so back in Mount Pleasant. Shane Morris is throwing for 467 and 5 tuddies. We’ve got a vulnerable Syracuse team coming up this weekend.

Houston (over 8) beats Arizona (over 5.5, 1*) 19-16

The Cougs now have to go 9-2 in order to cash out due to the UTSA game being cancelled, so this is a nice place to start. The offense still looks like it can rack up the yards without Tom Herman, at least. Defense only gave up 16 points.

Illinois (under 3.5) beats Western Kentucky (under 9.5, 1*)

Seems preposterous…but is Illinois good? Could be our first loser of the season.

2*

Georgia Southern (over 5) loses to New Hampshire 22-12

I thought that Tyson Summers going away from the option in his first year last year was the problem. It appears now that maybe Tyson Summers is the problem.

MTSU (over 7) beats Syracuse (under 4.5, 1*) 30-23

After dropping game one in ugly fashion to Vandy at home, this is a big one. The Stockstill-James combo was back in full swing. This week will be tough at Minnesota, but after that it’s four of the worst teams in college football.

Ohio State (over 11) loses to Oklahoma (under 9.5, 1*) 31-16

This was unfortunate. Am I worried? No. The push is still gonna happen. Urban Meyer was put on this Earth to win football games at a minimum of a 92% clip.

1*

Baylor (over 7.5) loses to UTSA (over 6.5) 17-10

Nobody likes a guy who can’t laugh at himself and the Baylor over will go down as one of the worst predictions of all-time.

HUGE FOR THE UTSA OVER THOUGH!

Louisville (over 9.5) beats UNC (under 7) 47-35

I’m going to miss Lamar Jackson so much.

San Diego St. (over 9.5) beats Arizona State (under 5) 30-20

The Aztecs are a well-oiled machine.

 

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CFB Picks: Week 3

Great start to the season so far if you’re looking to be an Average Joe. Both weeks have ended at 5-5. This week was a little better in terms of confidence points at least, grabbing 29 (out of 55). I should probably add the disclaimer that I’ve always been terrible with grading out the confidence/unit size thing.

Picks

10* WASHINGTON STATE (-18.5) over Oregon State

It wasn’t a thing of beauty, but the Cougs grinded one out over Boise despite a “constipated” offense. I would assume Luke Falk can go, but it didn’t appear to matter very much whether it was him or Hilinski running the show.

It also doesn’t matter because Oregon State is atrocious. They’re also especially bad against the pass, giving up 10.5 yards per attempt, which is “good” enough for 113th best in the country.

9* SOUTH CAROLINA (-6.5) over Kentucky

At this point, you’d have to consider South Carolina a legitimate contender to win the SEC East. UK hasn’t been all that impressive in wins over Southern Miss and EKU. Jake Bentley has given the Cocks their first formidable offense in a while and I don’t think UK has the firepower to keep up on the road.

 

8* TEXAS TECH (-7) over Arizona State

It’s hard to tell much off of one game, but the Red Raiders shut down a normally potent Eastern Washington team in Week 1. They’ve also had two weeks to prepare for the Aztecs, who were just soundly beat at home by SDSU and didn’t have high hopes heading into the season. It’ll likely be another massive shootout between these two, but I think TT is the more likely of the two to slow the other down.

7* CAL (+3.5) over Ole Miss

There were a lot of questions about Ole Miss heading into the year. What have we learned? Not much besides they’re not a total trainwreck, unlike Baylor who had similar questions. They’ve won relatively easy over two poor opponents, but nothing to signify the Rebels are anything above mediocre.

Cal opened the season with a major win over UNC on the road. They might’ve had a bit of a hangover performance with Weber State, but I’m not too worried about that. Their pass defense was great against the Heels and that will serve them well against the Ole Miss attack. Things should be lively in Berkeley with a 7:30 local time kickoff and a resurgence in the program.

6* SAN DIEGO STATE (+10) over Stanford

I’m not selling on Stanford yet, but SDSU continues to be a good team this year and it’s a tough team for the Cardinal to play coming off of USC week. The Aztec front has kept up their strong run defense, giving up just 1.5 ypc against Arizona State. Meanwhile, Stanford hasn’t been as strong through two games, giving up over 5 ypc. Both teams are run heavy, so those numbers will obviously have a big impact.

5* UTEP (+20) over Arizona

Does UTEP suck? Yes, they do. However, I’m still pretty sure Arizona isn’t good and they’ve been vulnerable in games like these in the past. Similar to the preposterous-ness that was Oregon State being favored over anybody last week, it doesn’t make sense for Arizona to be laying nearly three touchdowns on the road.

4* LSU (-6.5) over MISSISSIPPI STATE

Once again, the run game will be crucial in this one. And once again, the team I’m on has been much better than the opponent AGAINST the run. The Bulldogs have looked good early, but it’s come against schedule fluffers.

3* TCU (-18) over SMU

SMU ended up beating North Texas by quite a bit, but they actually were matched by the Mean Green in total yardage. I don’t see the Stangs having any shot at shutting the TCU offense down. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have given up 7 points through two games.

2* UCF (+2) over Georgia Tech    CANCELLED

I’d feel better about it, but it’s hard to gauge how much the hurricane is going to affect preparation/mindset.

2* Illinois (+17) over SOUTH FLORIDA

I’m not sure this game is even going to happen. But if it does, USF has been pretty disappointing thus far in the season with lackluster performances against bad football teams. Meanwhile, the Illini are fresh off a dominating defensive performance against Western Kentucky, holding the Hilltoppers to 7 points.

1* Clemson (-3) over LOUISVILLE

Lamar Jackson is the ultimate X-factor, but the defensive front for Clemson is incredible and there’s some holes on that Cardinal O-line, mainly at center. Kelly Bryant has shown a lot of pose and capability through two weeks. I know the game was close last year, but I don’t see 5 Tiger turnovers happening again.

Money Line Parlay of the Week

Nebraska, Western Kentucky, South Carolina (+120)

Huskers have been a little shaky to start the year, but I don’t think NIU can score enough to stick with them. WKU was embarrassed at Illinois, but the same was true for Louisiana Tech at home against Mississippi State. I’ve got more faith in the Hilltopper D.

Teaser of the Week

South Carolina (pick), Texas Tech (-0.5), Cal (+10) – (+165)

Only 6.5 this week.

Not Actually Betting, But Sides I’d Take With A Hypothetical Gun To My Head

New Mexico (+16) over BOISE STATE

Coastal Carolina (-2) over UAB

Clemson (-3) over LOUISVILLE

Central Michigan (+10.5) over SYRACUSE

WESTERN KENTUCKY (-7) over Louisiana Tech

OHIO STATE (-29.5) over Army

WYOMING (+14) over Oregon

Purdue (+8) over MISSOURI

 

Picks W-L: 10-10 (50.0%)
Confidence Points: 49 (of 110)
Parlays: 0-2 (-200)
Teasers: 0-2 (-200)

Season Total Tracker: After Week 1

Last year I picked the Power 5 totals before the season – after spending an embarrassing amount of hours doing research and writing them – and then never spoke of them again. That was pretty dumb.

This year, I’m gonna pick a few of the outcomes from the recent week of games that affected the totals the most. This will obviously have a slant toward my picks – given that they’re broken down by the confidence I placed in them – but I’ll still touch on major results for the 112 teams I didn’t bet on.

5*

TCU (over 7.5) beats Jackson State 63-0

The Frogs are the only one in this group, so I guess get used to a lot of Kenny Trill talk. Not much to say this week. Anytime you’ve got heavy stakes on a team winning at least 8 games, I guess it’s nice to see that they can roll over a team that went 3-8 in the SWAC last year.

4*

Vandy (under 6) beats MTSU (over 7, 2*) 28-6

This was always a toss-up game and one that Vandy was favored in, so it’s not time to panic yet. It was a little unsettling how dominant their defense was against a pretty good offense, however. Also not great: Kyle Shurmur being very competent at QB.

Oregon (over 8) beats Southern Utah 77-21

Similar to the TCU result, but at least SUU is a decent FCS program. Maybe the biggest news out of the week is that Vegas respects Oregon enough to have them giving 14 points to Nebraska this weekend. Other good news: upcoming road opponents Wyoming and Arizona State both looked worse than what was probably expected.

3*

Maryland (over 3.5) beats Texas (over 8, 1*) 51-41

HUUUUUUUUUGE

Boston College (over 4) beats Northern Illinois (over 6, 1*) 23-20

It wasn’t the prettiest thing, but it’s a win on the road against a not-terrible team. Still 4 to 6 games left on the schedule they’ll have at least a 50ish% chance of winning.

South Carolina (over 5.5) beats NC State (over 7.5, 1*) 35-28

Big one for the Gamecocks. The +100000 national championship bid is still alive.

2*

Florida (over 8.5) loses to Michigan (under 9, 1*) 33-17

It wasn’t a huge deal that they lost, but it was the fact their offense once again looks absolutely terrible and that there’s no real QB again.

Florida State (over 10) loses to Alabama (over 11) 24-7

I didn’t expect them to win, but reallllllly coulda done without Francois being lost for the season.

Texas A&M (over 7) loses to UCLA (over 7.5, 1*) 45-44

Blowing a 34-point lead is never an ideal way to start the season. Never ideal.

1*

Baylor (over 7.5) loses to Liberty 48-45

LIBERTY! Credit to me for having the guts to bet on a program in complete shambles.

Georgia Tech (under 6.5) loses to Tennessee (under 7.5) 42-41

I guess in a head-to-head under match here, it’s always better to have the team with a higher total win. I think they both might suck.

Cal (under 3.5) beats UNC (under 7) 35-30

This, on the other hand, was not good.

 

 

CFB Picks: Week 2

Picks

10* NAVY (-13.5) over Tulane

Navy looked like the same old Navy in Week 1 against FAU on the road. Tulane opened up strong with a 43-14 win over Grambling State at home, but I’m gonna need to see a bit more evidence that the Green Wave will be any better this year. Navy rolls at home.

9* WEST VIRGINIA (-24) over East Carolina

James Madison isn’t your average FCS opponent, but still, they waxed ECU by 20 last week. That further confirmed that the Pirates are indeed going to be garbage this year. WVU lost a tight one to Virginia Tech, but the 592 yards of total offense is a good sign for this week against the porous ECU defense.

8* ARKANSAS STATE (+14.5) over Miami (FL)  CANCELLED

Miami didn’t exactly light things up against Bethune Cookman. They’ll have to be A LOT sharper to cover the spread this week. ASU was closing in on a potential upset over Nebraska in Lincoln to start the year. The Red Wolves have a had a good program for a number of years now and they’ll be confident with the Canes coming to town.

8* TULSA-UL-Lafayette over 64

Tried to get cute and take a Tulsa under last week. Never again. For their part, the Ragin’ Cajuns had a 99-point total against SE Louisiana.

7* KANSAS-Central Michigan under 56

The Jayhawk offense is improved, but that’s saying very little. It took CMU three overtimes to put up 30 on a terrible Rhode Island team.

6* UTSA (+17) over BAYLOR

Baylor clearly still has a lot to get figured out and UTSA was a much-improved team a year ago. The Roadrunners had their Week 1 game postponed, so they should be rearing to go.

5* Marshall (+24) over NC STATE

I’ll stick again with the Thundering Herd this week. A lot of preseason hype for the Pack, but the loss to South Carolina shows that maybe, just maybe they’re not ready to run the table yet.

4* Stanford (+7) over USC

Not gonna look it up, but it feels like Stanford beats USC every time they play.

3* Western Michigan (+7.5) over MICHIGAN STATE

It appears the Broncos might still be pretty good. MSU handled Bowling Green just fine in the opener, but I’m not sure they have that big of a talent advantage in this one.

2* MICHIGAN (-34) over Cincinnati

The Bearcats didn’t exactly destroy Austin Peay in Luke Fickell’s debut. Feels like Cincy is set up for one of those games where Jim Harbaugh does everything in his power to beat you 100-0.

1* San Diego State (+4) over ARIZONA STATE

 

Money Line Parlay of the Week

Minnesota, TCU, Ohio State – +365

On the riskier side, but I think it’s wild that anyone can have watched Oregon State’s performances in the first two weeks of the season and think they should be favored over any above average team. I obviously like TCU this season. Feels like there’s no way Lincoln Riley leads a team into Urban Meyer’s house and wins.

Teaser of the Week

Ohio State (-0.5), Notre Dame (+1), Duke (+10.5) — +150

I don’t see Jake Fromm winning his first career start in South Bend. Considered taking Duke outright this week.

Not Actually Betting, But Sides I’d Take With A Hypothetical Gun To My Head

DUKE (+3) over Northwestern

UCONN-USF under 68

UNC-Louisville over 63

UAB (+14) over BALL STATE

ALABAMA-Fresno State under 54

ILLINOIS (+8.5) over Western Kentucky

TCU (-3) over ARKANSAS

Minnesota (ML) over OREGON STATE

Picks W-L: 5-5 (50.0%)
Confidence Points: 20 (of 55)
Parlays: 0-1 (-100)
Teasers: 0-1 (-100)

CFB Picks: Week 1

I’m going to do things a little different this year. Instead of just giving the picks with a unit amount like every other Tom, Dick, and Harry, I’m gonna do 10 games every week and rank them based on confidence. Normally, I bet like two or three games the first week, so I’m sure I’ll be digging out of a hole the rest of the year. Can’t wait. I’m also adding a couple specialty plays this year for those that are in to that sort of thing.

Picks

10* INDIANA (+21) over Ohio State

Obviously Ohio State is going to be very good this year, but this is a TON to be giving on the road against a likely bowl team. IU is always in these games at home against the big dogs of the division. They’ve been knocking on the door of winning one of these games and I wouldn’t be surprised if they did it this year. It’s the first “real” game of CFB, it’s a night game in Bloomington, College Gameday will be there for the first time, etc.

The Hoosier D was greatly improved last year under Tom Allen and they have 9 starters coming back on that side, including some big-time players. OSU is experienced, but they do have to replace their top 3 WRs and I’m not sure the passing game will be firing on all cylinders to start the season.

9* Temple (+17.5) over NOTRE DAME

I’m high on the Irish this year, but you gotta walk before you can run. Sure, Temple only has 10 starters back and a new coaching staff, but they were a 10-4 team last year and I don’t think they should be getting this many points against a 4-8 squad that’s replacing Deshone Kizer.

8* Georgia Southern (+35) over AUBURN

I like Auburn this year, but opening up defending the option the first game of the season is a tough task. I’m not saying the Eagles are gonna light them up, but it at least shortens the game and may disrupt the rhythm for Jarrett Stidham’s first game at QB for the Tigers.

7* BYU (+13.5) over LSU

BYU has the benefit of already playing a game. It wasn’t all that pretty in their 20-6 win over Portland State, but still. They didn’t really play that bad offensively, they just didn’t run a ton of plays. Defensively, they were expected to be good up front and that appeared to be true against the Vikings. They’ll need that against Derrius Guice.

6* OKLAHOMA STATE-Tulsa under 74

It’s always dangerous to bet an under with a Philip Montgomery offense involved, but Tulsa has to replace a ton of their skill on that side of the ball. Couple that with James Washington not being at 100% for the Cowboys and I think you see a lower scoring game than one would expect from these two.

5* MARSHALL (pick) over Miami (OH)

I’m not sure what else to say that wasn’t said in the conference previews. I think Marshall is primed for a big bounceback year after last year’s disaster.

4* South Alabama (+24.5) over OLE MISS

South Alabama is a bit of a wildcard for me this year, but Ole Miss is probably the biggest wildcard in the country.

3* Colorado State (+6) over COLORADO

Once again, Colorado State has the benefit of already playing a game. Added bonus: they dominated Oregon State. Given that I was high on the Rams and low on the Buffs heading into the season, this shouldn’t be a surprise. Here’s to hoping Mike MacIntyre is back to sucking.

2* Western Michigan (+28) over USC

I assume the Broncos still know how to row the boat even though their cult leader coach from last year is gone. The offense has some big questions to answer, but they return a lot from a defense that only gave up 19.8 ppg last year and was really the reason they were able to win at Northwestern and keep close with Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl.

1* MICHIGAN STATE-Bowling Green under 56.5

The Spartan offense looks like it’s going to once again be run heavy and not very good. Should be due for some low totals.

Money Line Parlay of the Week

In the almost two year existence of this blog, I’m not sure I’ve played one bet that fits the namesake. That’s probably due to one non-sober Saturday a few years ago that featured probably five too-many MLP plays. I’ll have one every week and they’ll probably vary in risk/reward.

UCLA, UNC, EMU (+130)

UNC and EMU are both double-digit home favorites. The Heels get Cal, who has a new coaching staff and a new QB. EMU gets Charlotte at home, a team they beat 37-19 on the road last season. I’m not real high on the Eagles this year, but beating Charlotte at home shouldn’t be a problem. UCLA has Texas A&M at home. Not gonna be easy, but they’re slight favorites and talent certainly isn’t a problem. I like the Aggies, but QB is a pretty big question mark.

Teaser of the Week

I’ll also be doing a teaser. Full disclosure: I don’t think playing college football teasers is the best way to risk your money, but people tend to like them. Most of them will probably be three-teamers. Points will vary.

Alabama (even), MTSU (+11.5), Marshall (+7) — +150

We’ll start with a 7-pointer. Any time you can bet Alabama to simply just win the game, it’s a good bet. Obviously, Florida State is a worthy opponent for the Tide, but I’m pretty sure Saban has won every single one of these big neutral-site games to start the year. I think MTSU has a great shot to beat Vandy this week, but I hate the 4.5 point spread and I don’t have big enough huevos to put them in the first MLP. I obviously like Marshall to win this week and the +7 they get with the tease is a nice little protection in case they don’t.

Not Actually Betting, But Sides I’d Take With A Hypothetical Gun To My Head

I wasn’t sure if theoretical, hypothetical, or metaphorical was the right term to use there, so I Googled it and I still have no idea which one is the right one or if any of them are the right one.

MEMPHIS (-27) over Louisiana-Monroe

Memphis has the talent to wreck some teams this year and ULM is one of them, but I’m not sure about the Tiger D just yet and the Warhawks have a lot coming back.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+11.5) over Navy

I think the Owls are gonna be good, but they’re already still in transition mode with the new staff and having to defend the option Week 1 only heightens that reality.

Wyoming (+12.5) over IOWA

Iowa has a tendency to have some clunkers early in the season, but the Cowboys have a lot of skill positions to replace and I doubt they’ll have that all figured out at the start of the season.

Maryland (+17.5) over TEXAS

A lot of respect for a program that has 21 losses the last three years.

Florida (+4) over Michigan

I like Florida more than Michigan this year, but it makes me nervous that the Gators don’t really seem close to having the QB situation figured out.

Georgia Tech (+4) over Tennessee

I just don’t like Tennessee this year.

MTSU (+4.5) over Vanderbilt

 

 

 

CFB Season Preview: Recap

Monday, August 7: Big Ten
Tuesday, August 8: SEC
Wednesday, August 9: Pac-12
Thursday, August 10: Big 12
Friday, August 11: ACC

Monday, August 14: Independents/MAC
Tuesday, August 15: AAC/Sunbelt
Wednesday, August 16: Mountain West/C-USA
Thursday, August 17: Heisman/National Title/Misc.
Friday, August 18: Recap

Thanks to for reading these past couple weeks.

1* Season Totals

1

Ended up being 89 teams (68%) that I didn’t really even consider actually betting on. 44 overs and 45 unders.

2* Season Totals

2

These are the teams I think it’s worth sprinkling a little on if you must (I won’t), but don’t go crazy. It’s over heavy.

3* Season Totals

3.png

Over heavy again, but a decent confidence level on all of them.

4* Season Totals

Vanderbilt under 6 -120
Oregon over 8 +115

5* Season Totals

TCU over 7.5 -125

Conference Winners

Big Ten Northwestern +2100
SEC Florida +1100
Pac-12 Oregon +1600
Big 12 TCU +1200
ACC Miami (FL) +800
Sun Belt Georgia Southern +1200
AAC UCF +1000
MAC CMU +1200
C-USA Southern Miss +1100
MW Air Force +3000

National Championship Bets

Ohio State +800
Washington +2300
Oregon +10500
TCU +10500
South Carolina +100000

Heisman Bets

Saquon Barkley +1400
Bo Scarbrough +2000
Brandon Wimbush +5000
Jacob Eason +8500

Other Futures

Wisconsin makes 4 team playoff +725
Oklahoma St. makes 4 team playoff +800
BYU plays in New Year’s Six +700
App St. plays in New Year’s Six +1600
Alabama 14-1 National Champion +650

CFB Season Preview: National Champion, Heisman, and More

Monday, August 7: Big Ten
Tuesday, August 8: SEC
Wednesday, August 9: Pac-12
Thursday, August 10: Big 12
Friday, August 11: ACC

Monday, August 14: Independents/MAC
Tuesday, August 15: AAC/Sunbelt
Wednesday, August 16: Mountain West/C-USA
Thursday, August 17: Heisman/National Title/Misc.
Friday, August 18: Recap

National Championship Picks

Favorites (Top 4)

Ohio State +800

The other three being Alabama, USC, and Florida State. Since Urban Meyer came to town in 2012, they’ve lost a total of 6 games. Last year was a disappointment and they still made the playoff.  The Buckeyes return 15 starters and they have by far the easiest schedule of the four. Could be a heart attack free year for old Urb.

Second Tier (40-1 or less)

Washington +2300

A great price for a team that ended up +24 ppg last year, returns two Heisman contenders among 13 starters, and has maybe the easiest schedule among Power 5 teams.

Darkhorse (105-1 or less)

Oregon and TCU (+10500)

If you read through the season win total previews, this shouldn’t be a surprise. They’re two programs that have both been near the top tier in recent years, but are coming off disappointing seasons with a lot of starters returning. The obvious difference is that Gary Patterson is in his 17th year in Fort Worth, while Willie Taggart is just getting started. Both are playing relatively soft schedules.

Super Darkhorse (110-1 or more)

South Carolina +100000

They weren’t terrible last year and they’ve got a lot coming back. They don’t play any of the top 3 from the SEC West. Yeah, Will Muschamp is still their coach, but he did go 11-2 his second year at Florida. That’s something.

Heisman Picks

Favorites (Top 5)

Saquon Barkley +1400

It’s kind of a muddled mess, with varied values on guys depending on the book, so it’s best to shop around. I took Barkley as a Super Darkhorse guy last year and he might’ve made it to New York if Penn State wouldn’t have spent the first half of the year outside of the top 25. The biggest problem for him is probably Trace McSorley cancelling him out.

Second Tier (30-1 or less)

Bo Scarbrough +2000

Took him last year at +5000. Admittedly, I felt pretty dumb for most of the year, given that he was third on the Tide in carries and rushing yards. Then, he got the bulk of the load against Washington and proceeded to run by their entire defense like a goddamn gazelle.

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/GCML86KZkq_1uvC7S5MnFg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9NTUwO2g9MzAy/http://media.zenfs.com/en/homerun/feed_manager_auto_publish_494/57c64223c5e409aac1c14d489b368109

Once again, an Alabama RB is never a bad bet for Heisman and Bo Scarbrough still has the best, most fitting name in college football.

Darkhorse (65-1 or less)

Brandon Wimbush +5000

I don’t know, I’ve got a lot of “Lamar Jackson 2016” feels on this one. A talented, ridiculously fast QB that has an opportunity to make a big splash early in the year. I thought about going Rolls Royce Freeman here, but I think three bets related to Oregon is enough (there might be more later).

Super Darkhorse (75-1 or more)

Jacob Eason +8500

I like Georgia and they’ve got a tall white at QB, so here we are.

Other Futures

Wisconsin makes 4 team playoff +725

I ended up going against them winning more than 10.5, butttttt if they do, they’ve got a good shot at making the playoff if they take down the Big Ten East winner. The schedule is comically bad.

Oklahoma State makes 4 team playoff +800

I’ll never be able to quit OSU as long as Mike Gundy’s Mullet is running the show. They get the majority of legitimate Big 12 teams at home.

Oregon makes 4 team playoff +1700
TCU makes 4 team playoff +1700

I’m sorry, I can’t stop.

BYU plays in New Year’s Six +700

The schedule is just difficult enough to legitimize their birth with a strong record. Also, their four most difficult games are either at home or on a neutral field.

Appalachian State plays in New Year’s Six +1600

They’ve got a great shot to go 11-1. If they keep it close against Georgia like they did Tennessee last year, they’ll be in contention.

Alabama 14-1 National Champion +650

It’s the only way to get decent value on Alabama winning it all and I’m pretty sure this is their record every year.

CFB Season Win Totals: Mountain West / C-USA

I’m picking every over/under regular season win total for all 130 schools in college football. I’ll try to keep the odds/injuries/suspensions as current as possible, but I’m doing this in pieces, so it is what it is.

Huge shoutout to Phil Steele and a variety of websites on the line making their #content available for all of us to consume. If you don’t use Phil to help you with gambling on college football, you’re lost, pal.

Also, at the bottom of each of these, I’ll give my best bet for the conference champion. It’s not based on who I actually think will win, just my best perceived value.

Monday, August 7: Big Ten
Tuesday, August 8: SEC
Wednesday, August 9: Pac-12
Thursday, August 10: Big 12
Friday, August 11: ACC

Monday, August 14: Independents/MAC
Tuesday, August 15: AAC/Sunbelt
Wednesday, August 16: Mountain West/C-USA
Thursday, August 17: Heisman/National Title/Misc.
Friday, August 18: Recap

MOUNTAIN WEST…MOUNTAIN

Colorado State – over 7.5 (-160) – 2*

Only game they’re for sure losing is at Alabama. All their important skill guys are back on offense, but the line is a bit of a question mark. Defensively, they have 8 starters back.  Pretty steep price, though.

Boise State – over 8.5 (-120) – 1*

They lose a lot, but Brett Rypien is back and that’s worth a lot. The losses are concerning, but the Broncos have been a well-oiled machine for a long time now.

Wyoming – under 7.5 (-105) – 1*

Josh Allen returns, but he loses over 4,300 yards of total offense around him. I like Craig Bohl, but they jumped up 17 ppg from 2015 to 2016 and now a lot of those guys are gone. That makes me skeptical they can maintain a potent offense.

Utah State – over 4.5 (-110) – 1*

Not real confident, but they don’t play SDSU or Nevada.

Air Force – over 5 (-110) – 3*

They only have a single starter back on defense, which is far from ideal, but the Falcons have been really consistent underneath Troy Calhoun.

New Mexico – under 5.5 (-130) – 1*

A lot of losses defensively, but the biggest reason for concern is the schedule.

MOUNTAIN WEST…WEST

San Diego State – over 9.5 (+115) – 1*

Not a lot of room for error, obviously, especially playing both Arizona St. and Stanford in the first three weeks. However, they do avoid CSU and Wyoming and they’ve been very consistent under Rocky Long. Donnel Pumphrey is gone, but Rashaad Penny might be able to match his production.

Nevada – over 3.5 (-130) – 3*

They lose a lot on offense, but they’ve got some talented transfers coming in and an Air Raid offense. The D returns 9 starters from a unit that was fairly decent. They have a lot of winnable games at home.

Hawaii – under 5 (-115) – 1*

Defense is probably still gonna suck.

Fresno State – under 4 (-135) – 1*

Jeff Tedford provides some optimism, but Tim DeRuyter kinda left things in shambles.

UNLV – under 5 (-120) – 1*

Defense might give up 40+.

San Jose State – over 3.5 (-105) – 1*

Good news: they get to play 13 games. Not as good news: Their HC and coordinators have a combined 0 experience with their current jobs.

Best Bet to Win

Air Force +3000

They don’t have a lot coming back on defense, but the price doesn’t match the consistency the Falcons have shown under Calhoun and their ability to contend for a title. The Mountain division is the stronger of the two, but there’s no point in taking anyone out of the West. SDSU is the lock of all locks.

C-USA EAST

Western Kentucky – under 9.5 (+125) – 1*

Heavy losses for the Hilltoppers. It starts with Jeff Brohm, then 1,600 yard rusher Anthony Wales, then WRs Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris (combined 174 receptions, 3,048 receiving yards, 31 TDs), and their top three tacklers. The schedule isn’t all that difficult, but there’s still plenty of opportunities to lose for a team with so many significant losses.

Marshall – over 5 (-155) – 3*

Defense should make big strides after a significant spike in points allowed last year. They lose their receiving corps, but Chase Litton should be one of the better QBs in the league. They’ve got a chance to run the table at home, along with some winnable games on the road.

Middle Tennessee – over 7 (+110) – 2*

Brent Stockstill and Richie James are one of the best QB-WR duos in the country and should make sure the Blue Raiders are the top offense in the league. The defense has some question marks for sure, but they should still improve on a mediocre effort last year.

Old Dominion – over 6.5 (-110) – 1*

They lose QB David Washington, which makes 35.1 ppg number from last year likely unattainable, but they’ve still got quite a bit coming back from a 10 win team.

Florida Atlantic – over 4.5 (-140) – 2*

I was hopping aboard the Lane Train the day he signed. Combine that with 58 of 66 lettermen returning and it’s a clear path for success.

https://bullseye-prod.aggrego.org/wp-ag/wp-content/uploads/sites/156/2016/05/Screen-Shot-2016-05-19-at-4.09.14-PM.jpg?o=eyJ4IjowLjUsInkiOjAuNSwid2lkdGgiOjM5NSwiaGVpZ2h0IjozOTR9&s=orKdJHMlbOzRUhY%2FTXtGRrvRRP8%3D&a

All hail Joey Freshwater.

Florida International – under 4.5 (+105) – 1*

Charlotte – under 4 (-175) – 1*

C-USA WEST

Louisiana Tech – under 8.5 (-135) – 1*

Significant losses on both sides of the ball and they draw South Carolina, Mississippi State, and WKU out of division, with only MSU coming at home.

UTSA – over 6.5 (-140) – 1*

14 starters back and they play one of the worst schedules in the country.

Southern Miss – over 7 (-120) – 1*

Really boils down to how well they can replace Nick Mullens.

Rice – under 3.5 (+105) – 1*

Schedule is pretty brutal.

North Texas – over 4.5 (-110) – 1*

Big strides on both sides of the ball in the first year of Seth Littrell. Look for more of the same in Year 2.

UTEP – over 2.5 (+115) – 1*

UAB – under 2.5 (+110) – 1*

Best Bet to Win

Southern Miss +1100

Weak division and they don’t have to play WKU or MTSU from the East.

CFB Season Win Totals: AAC / Sun Belt

I’m picking every over/under regular season win total for all 130 schools in college football. I’ll try to keep the odds/injuries/suspensions as current as possible, but I’m doing this in pieces, so it is what it is.

Huge shoutout to Phil Steele and a variety of websites on the line making their #content available for all of us to consume. If you don’t use Phil to help you with gambling on college football, you’re lost, pal.

Also, at the bottom of each of these, I’ll give my best bet for the conference champion. It’s not based on who I actually think will win, just my best perceived value.

Monday, August 7: Big Ten
Tuesday, August 8: SEC
Wednesday, August 9: Pac-12
Thursday, August 10: Big 12
Friday, August 11: ACC

Monday, August 14: Independents/MAC
Tuesday, August 15: AAC/Sunbelt
Wednesday, August 16: Mountain West/C-USA
Thursday, August 17: Heisman/National Title/Misc.
Friday, August 18: Recap

AAC EAST

South Florida – over 10 (-120) – 1*

It’s hard to put too much faith in Charlie Strong. The whole “couldn’t win at Texas with a never-ending supply of talent” thing tends to shake the confidence. However, USF has a lot coming back from an 11-2 squad and they play one of the worst schedules in the country.

Temple – under 6.5 (-115) – 2*

The program made great strides under Matt Rhule, but he’s gone now and so are 12 starters. Most notably, 7 of those are from the dominant defense, QB Phillip Walker, and RB Jahad Thomas. Geoff Collins is a first year HC.

Central Florida – over 7.5 (+115) – 1*

I think their offense is gonna make a big jump in Year 2 under Scott Frost’s direction, but they don’t have much coming back on defense and there’s a lot of loseable (but also winnable!) games on the schedule. I like the Knights this year, but it’s hard to put too much stock in them with the defensive worries.

Cincinnati – under 5.5 (+125) – 1*

Only 11 starters back for first year HC Luke Fickell. The offense was atrocious last year and new OC Mike Denbrock doesn’t exactly move the needle for me.

UConn –  over 3.5 (+150) – 1*

Betting on some Randy Edsall magic here. It didn’t exist at Maryland, but he built this program. It also helps that he’ll be compared to Bob Diaco. The offense can’t possibly be any worse. The defense returns 7 starters. They might have the best front 7 in the AAC when all is said and done.

East Carolina – under 3.5 (-130) – 1*

A low bar, but the defense was bad last year and there’s reason to believe it might get even worse. Not many breaks in the schedule. Even their FCS opponent is the FCS national champion.

AAC WEST

Houston – over 8 (-130) – 3*

Tom Herman moves on, but Major Applewhite has been running the offense here the past few years. They have 15 starters back. QB Greg Ward is gone. He was a huge part of the offense, but he played hurt most of last year and turned the ball over quite a bit. Kyle Allen takes over, who was once the #1 QB in his recruiting class and played pretty well before he transferred from Texas A&M.

Maybe the most important group of the team is the defensive line, and they’re special. They’re by far the best the AAC has to offer and Ed Oliver might be the best DT in the country as a true sophomore.

Tulsa – over 7.5 (+140) – 1*

They lose a lot of production on offense, but I’m not sure Philip Montgomery has ever put out a unit that wasn’t exceptional at scoring points.

Memphis – under 8.5 (+130) – 1*

It’s hard for me to bet against Riley Ferguson, but I don’t totally trust HC Mike Norvell yet and they’ve got some tough road games along with UCLA and Navy coming to town.

Navy – over 7 (-120) – 2*

Navy is one of the most consistent programs in the nation. The second half of the schedule is gonna be prettyyyyyy tough, but Ken Niumatalolo has only won fewer than 7 one time in his 9 years here.

SMU – under 5 (+160) – 1*

They’ll probably make a bowl, but I’m not eating -185 on SMU football. That’s just a code to live by (since they stopped paying everybody to go there).

Tulane – under 5 (-130) – 3*

Not a chance with that schedule.

Best Bet to Win

UCF +1000

I think this is a better way to bet on the Knights, as opposed to the season win total. They have question marks on D and a lot of toss-up games, but if the questions are answered in the positive defensively, they’ve got a great chance to contend for the league title.



SUN BELT

Appalachian State – under 9 (+155) – 1*

I actually don’t think they’ll go under, but my confidence level doesn’t match the price. They’re almost a lock to lose to Georgia and they also host Wake. It’ll be close with the Demon Deacons, but if they drop it, they have to go perfect in conference play to hit the over.

Arkansas State – over 7.5 (+120) – 1*

Tough non-con schedule, but they’re capable of upsetting somebody. They only return 10 starters, but their D-Line is Power 5 level and they’ve won 7+ the last six years.

Troy – under 8.5 (+110) – 1*

The Trojans won 10 games (9 in the regular season) last year and they have a lot of coming back, but there are some significant losses on the defense and they’ve got some tough road games on the schedule.

UL-Lafayette – over 5 (-105) – 1*

They have seven road games, which is the biggest deterrent to hitting the over, but the Ragin’ Cajuns have been to a bowl (the New Orleans one every time) all but one time under Mark Hudspeth.

South Alabama – over 4 (-115) – 2*

Quite a few winnable games at home. They lose their top 4 pass catchers, but they finally have a returning starting QB.

New Mexico State – over 3.5 (-155) – 1*

Lotta guys back and nine winnable games on the schedule.

Idaho – under 4.5 (+145) – 1*

The 2016 Idaho Vandals were one of the more fortunate (lucky) teams in the history of football. They were 9-50 in the five years prior. They lose a lot on both lines, the receiver group, and the secondary. .

Georgia Southern – over 5 (+105) – 2*

Tyson Summers decided it was a good idea to abandon the option in his first year as HC. The result? First losing season since 2009. The reason for optimism here is that they’re going back to the option.

Louisiana-Monroe – under 3.5 (-130) – 1*

Georgia State – over 5 (-120) – 1*

Texas State – under 2.5 (even) – 1*

Coastal Carolina – over 4 (-125) – 1*

First year in the FBS, but they’ve won a lot at the second level and the Sun Belt is the worst conference in the FBS.

Best Bet to Win

Georgia Southern +1200

App State is a -250 favorite for a reason, but the Eagles could get back to title contention with the switch back to the option.

CFB Season Win Totals: Independents/MAC

I’m picking every over/under regular season win total for all 130 schools in college football. I’ll try to keep the odds/injuries/suspensions as current as possible, but I’m doing this in pieces, so it is what it is.

Huge shoutout to Phil Steele and a variety of websites on the line making their #content available for all of us to consume. If you don’t use Phil to help you with gambling on college football, you’re lost, pal.

Also, at the bottom of each of these, I’ll give my best bet for the conference champion. It’s not based on who I actually think will win, just my best perceived value.

Monday, August 7: Big Ten
Tuesday, August 8: SEC
Wednesday, August 9: Pac-12
Thursday, August 10: Big 12
Friday, August 11: ACC

Monday, August 14: Independents/MAC
Tuesday, August 15: AAC/Sunbelt
Wednesday, August 16: Mountain West/C-USA
Thursday, August 17: Heisman/National Title/Misc.
Friday, August 18: Recap

 

INDEPENDENTS

Notre Dame – over 8 (+110) – 3*

When the hell did we stop overrating Notre Dame every year? I get that they went 4-8 last year, but they might be better at every single position group this year. DeShone Kizer was a high draft pick, but I’m sure Brandon Wimbush is capable of throwing for 2,900 yards at a 58.7% completion rate.

The schedule is the biggest reason for consternation. Georgia, USC, Miami (FL), and Stanford are all on the schedule, with the latter two coming on the road. On top of that, they also travel to BC, Michigan State, and UNC. Actually, now that I think about it, the worst team they play (Miami (OH)) is probably still going bowling. It’s gonna be challenging, but the Irish have the talent to play with anybody and fresh coordinators to iron some things out.

BYU – over 9.5 (+115) – 1*

Best part about this one? The Cougs get 13 shots at it. And they’ve got 13 starters back and blah, blah, blah.

What I’d really like to address is the purpose of the August 26th games because I still haven’t found one. They played one last year with Cal and Hawaii last year in Australia or whatever. The game was horrible, it was a push, and both of the teams sucked.

So how do we build on all that incredible success? Well, apparently it’s games like BYU and Portland State! Hawaii and UMass! USF and San Jose State! Oregon State and Colorado State! And your main event? Stanford and Rice! In Sydney!

Anyway, BYU has a tough schedule in September with LSU, Utah, and Wisconsin, but two of them are in Provo and the other is a neutral site game. The plus is that the last five weeks feature the worst of the Mountain West and UMass.

Army – under 7.5 (-165) – 1*

I hate to bet against Army,  but no chance they win 8 games again.

UMass – over 3 (-120) – 1*

Somewhat decent chance they at least push after the first three games.



MAC WEST

Toledo – under 8.5 (+105) – 1*

They’ll light it up offensively with Logan Woodside back at QB, but they lose their all-time rushing leader and play a tough non-conference schedule.

Western Michigan – over 8.5 (+115) – 2*

Key losses are HC PJ Fleck, QB Zach Terrell, and top 3 WRs (including Corey Davis), however they will still have an excellent running game and will probably have the best D in the MAC again. They’ll likely run the table at home, just need to win three on the road (Buffalo, EMU, NIU most likely).

Northern Illinois – over 6 (+105) – 1*

They have a tough non-con, but I like the fact that they’re coming off an unusually disappointing season in which they finished better than they started.

Central Michigan – over 6.5 (+135) – 3*

They went 6-6 in the regular season last year and they return 15 starters. They have a lot of All-MAC players returning. One of them is not Cooper Rush, but…

…that’s how I felt about Cooper Rush after single-handedly destroying the over in the Miami Beach Bowl last year. His 23-16 TD-INT ratio is replaceable.

They have three road games against Power 5 teams, but those three teams are Kansas, Syracuse, and Boston College, so it’s basically just three more MAC-level road games.

Eastern Michigan – under 4.5 (+125) – 1*

Everything went right for them last year. They return quite a bit, but history says they’re due for a regression.

Ball State – under 4.5 (+120) – 1*

I don’t know. I just don’t see them going at least 3-5 in the MAC.

MAC EAST

Ohio – over 7.5 (-130) – 3*

Another one of the “powers” of the MAC over the past decade and a half, thanks to Frank Solich. The Bobcats have a pretty decent shot to go 4-0 in the non-con (Hampton, @ Purdue, Kansas, @ UMass).

Miami (OH) – over 8 (+115) – 1*

Sure, why not? They return 17 starters, people seem to like Chuck Martin, and the only guaranteed loss is at Notre Dame.

Akron – under 5 (+105) – 1*

Terry Bowden loves to go 5-7 (done it 3 out of 5 years at Akron), so this one is especially tough. There’s reason to like the Zips this year, but they’ve got 6 road games and they won’t be favored in any of them, most likely. That forces them to be perfect at home, which includes beating Iowa State and Ohio.

Bowling Green – over 4 (-155) – 1*

Not worth the bet, but they have a lot of factors pointing up.

Kent State – under 3.5 (+105) – 2*

Paul Haynes is 12-35 through four years. They have seven road games, all coming against better teams. They also host CMU and Miami, so not a lot of room for error. On the plus side, they’re pretty much clear of the stench that is Darrell Hazell recruits.

Buffalo – over 3.5 (+115) – 1*

Decent amount of chances for wins and QB Tyree Jackson should be improved after getting a lot of experience as a true freshman last year.